臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

1990年代初期蘇聯的瓦解，帶來國際體系的重大變化。其中，由15個前蘇聯加盟共和國所組成的地緣政治空間，是觀察家眼中的戰略要地。認為取得歐亞大陸的主導權，是成為世界霸權的至要關鍵。布里辛斯基更以「歐亞巴爾幹」稱此心臟地帶，其地緣戰略重要性不可言喻。長期以來，由於深處內陸，同時，基於前蘇聯共產統治的歷史因素，中亞在國際體系內對外有其一定的封閉性。然而，冷戰終結，權力真空下的中亞地區，呈現多元且開放競爭之狀態。除此之外，豐富的石油與天然氣能源蘊藏，更吸引著許多國家到此進行利益角逐。2001年九一一恐怖攻擊事件發生後，中亞成為國際反恐的重要基地，防止區域內各極端勢力與恐怖份子的結合，則是相關國家在中亞的非傳統安全問題上的重要利益考量。

包含哈薩克、塔吉克、吉爾吉斯、土庫曼與烏茲別克等五國，雖然構成了當代政治意涵上的中亞區域體系，然而，在各內外因素交互作用下，其所能發揮的影響力量則相當有限。內部因素上，由於各國仍處於經濟與政治的轉型階段，因此，中亞五國尚不足以成為區域的主導力量。外部因素方面，地緣政治、石油與天然氣利益，以及非傳統安全問題的考量，加速其他強權國家到中亞進行利益角逐的競賽，在這些國家中，尤以美國、俄羅斯和中國在中亞地區的競爭最為激烈。換言之，影響現階段的中亞區域安全體系情勢者，主要是強權間的互動作用力，而非中亞國家自身實力因素。

國際關係理論中的結構現實主義學派，重視體系與行為者之間的分析研究。其核心論點為：在無政府狀態下，體系的型態將影響國家的行為產出，同時，主要國家行為者間的實力分配情況，也將成為體系內衝突發生與否的關鍵性因素。本論文以冷戰後美國、中國與俄羅斯的中亞政策為主要研究對象，觀察上述強權國家在中亞地區的「地緣政治」、「石油與天然氣能源」和「非傳統安全」三項政策產出與互動情形。採用結構現實主義為主要研究方法，探討在體系結構變動的情況下，區域內主要行為者的利益與實力分配問題。其次，研究命題假設也將涉及強權作用力與中亞區域安全間的討論，並以「權力平衡理論」和「權力轉移理論」檢驗強權在中亞地區的權力運作，分析與預測未來中亞區域衝突發生之可能。

The collapse of the Soviet Union has tremendously changed the international system. On this new world stage, the geopolitical space comprised of the fifteen former Soviet republics is of considerably strategic values. Zbigniew Brzezinski hence named it “The Eurasian Balkans” to stand out the national and geopolitical complexity and importance of this region. The Central Asia is from many strategists’ view the heartland of the Eurasian Balkans, and to achieve the predominance in this area is the key point to become world hegemony. However, due to being the geographical inner land and historically being colonized by the Soviet Union, Central Asia had had been hard reached until the end of the Cold War.

The independence of the five countries, including Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, contributes to the power vacuum status in Central Asia. Among other things, the fruitful oil and gas resources are also of great interest to many countries. Sliding the time capsule to the 21st century, since the September 11 attack the Central Asia has further become the front-line of fighting terrorism. Therefore, without Soviet governance anymore, the geopolitical, energy and non-traditional security factors of the time play an important role as vital nation interests in appealing to the great powers to this region.

The five countries though comprise contemporary political central Asian region, they nevertheless may wield only limited influence on the regional security. The internal reason is that they are still at the stage of economically and politically transition. It is going to be difficult for them to maintain regional security before reaching certain development. The external one is that the geopolitical, oil & gas and the non-traditional security interests have been accelerating the race among the United States, Russia and China. In other words, it is the Great Powers which currently dominate the security and stability of the Central Asia.

According to theories of International Relations, Structural Realism emphasizes the study of international system and nation states. The core statement is: the structure of international system will be influential in the outcome of the nation states, i.e. in an anarchic society, the state behavior is constrained by the structure. Furthermore, it is only the great powers contribute to the formation of the international system, hence the allocation, either unipolar, bipolar or multipolar, of the main state power counts for the possibility of conflicts.

The thesis focuses on the United States, Russia and China’s policy in Central Asia after Cold War. The observation on the one hand will be divided into three parts: geopolitical, gas & oil energy and non-traditional security interests. On the other hand, to analyze issues concerned, Structural Realism will be applied as the research approach. The thesis also explores the influence of great powers on the security of Central Asia. “Theory of Balance of Power” and “Power Transition Theory” are main tools to examine whether the existence of this three states are going to bring a more stable or conflicting Central Asia in the future.

目錄

口試委員會審定書 / i
謝辭 / ii
中文摘要 / iii
英文摘要 / v
目錄 / vii
圖表目次 / ix

第一章 前言 / 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 / 1
第二節 研究範圍與限制 / 2
第三節 研究背景 / 5
第四節 文獻回顧 / 9
第二章 相關理論探討 / 17
第一節 傳統現實主義與結構現實主義 / 17
第二節 權力平衡理論與權力轉移理論 / 19
第三節 理論評估 / 22
第四節 小結 / 24
第三章 強權在中亞地區的地緣政治利益與政策 / 25
第一節 美國在中亞地區的地緣政治利益 / 25
第二節 俄羅斯在中亞地區的地緣政治利益 / 28
第三節 中國在中亞地區的地緣政治利益 / 30
第四節 強權在中亞地區的地緣政治政策：過去與現況 / 31
第五節 小結 / 45
第四章 強權在中亞地區的油氣能源利益與政策 / 47
第一節 美國在中亞地區的油氣能源利益與政策 / 48
第二節 俄羅斯在中亞地區的油氣能源利益與政策 / 52
第三節 中國在中亞地區的油氣能源利益與政策 / 56
第四節 小結 / 60
第五章 強權在中亞地區的非傳統安全利益與政策 / 62
第一節 中亞地區民族分離主義問題 / 62
第二節 中亞地區宗教極端主義問題 / 64
第三節 強權在中亞地區的非傳統安全利益與政策 / 77
第四節 小結 / 82
第六章 結論 / 85

參考文獻 / 93

圖表目次

圖目次

圖1-1 中亞五國地圖 / 4
圖2-1 一般國際政治研究情況 / 19
圖2-2 國際政治系統的結構 / 19
圖3-1 The Eurasian Chessboard（歐亞大棋盤） / 26
圖3-2 The Eurasian Balkans（歐亞巴爾幹地區） / 27
圖3-3 Loss of Ideological Control and Imperial Retrenchment
（蘇聯解體後俄羅斯地緣政治板塊變動示意圖） / 28
圖3-4 歐洲及中亞地區民主化程度示意圖 / 38
圖4-1 BTC石油管線示意圖 / 51
圖4-2 俄羅斯�堮�能源管道示意圖 / 54
圖4-3 「中亞—中央」天然氣管道示意圖 / 55
圖4-4 中哈石油管道示意圖 / 59
圖5-1 公元750年哈里發帝國版圖 / 65
圖5-2 阿拔斯王朝（西元786-809年哈倫•拉希德統治時期的帝國）/ 66

表目次
表3-1 民主化指數與政權類型 / 37
表4-1 2007年獨立國協石油生產國儲存量與產量 / 47
表4-2 2007年獨立國協天然氣生產國儲存量與產量 / 48

一、 中文文獻

（一） 專書
刑廣程，崛起的中亞，台北：五南出版社，1993，

朱鎔基，關於國民經濟和社會發展第十個五年計畫綱要的報告，上海：人民出版社，2001。

朱成虎主編，十字路口：中亞走向何方，北京：時事出版社，2007。

李靜杰、鄭羽主編，俄羅斯與當代世界，北京：世界知識出版社，1998。

余建華，民族主義：歷史遺產與時代風雲的交匯，上海：學林出版社，1999。

武曉迪，中國地緣政治的轉型，北京：中國大百科全書出版社，2006。

馬大正，馮錫時主編，中亞五國史綱，烏魯木齊：新疆人民出版社，2005。

胡鞍鋼，中國崛起之路，北京：北京大學出版社，2007。

席來旺，21世紀中國戰略大策劃：外交謀略，北京：紅旗出版社，1996。

孫壯志，中亞新格局與地區安全，北京：中國社會科學出版社，2001。

孫壯志，中亞安全與阿富汗問題，北京：世界知識出版社，2003。

畢洪華、江宏偉、周尚文，第二次起搏：重展俄羅斯政治宏圖，重慶：重慶出版社，2007。

許利平主編，亞洲極端勢力，北京：社會科學文獻出版社，2007。

張新平，地緣政治視野下的中亞民族關係，北京：民族出版社，2006。

陳延琪、潘志平主編，泛突厥主義文化透視，新疆人民出版社，2000。

潘志平主編，中亞的地緣政治文化，烏魯木齊：新疆人民出版社，2003。

傅仁坤主編，發現中亞，桃園縣中壢市：臺灣與中亞文化經貿協會，2005。

傅仁坤主編，深入中亞，桃園縣中壢市：臺灣與中亞文化經貿協會，2007。

鄭羽主編，中俄美在中亞：合作與競爭（1991-2007），北京：社會科學文獻出版社，2007。

（二） 譯著
C. M. 阿基姆別科夫著，楊恕，汪金國譯，阿富汗焦點和中亞安全問題，蘭州：蘭州大學出版社，2002。

Dougherty, James E & Pfaltzgraff, Robert L著，閻學通，陳寒溪等譯，爭論中的國際關係理論，北京：世界知識出版社，2003。

Keohane, Robert O.著，郭樹勇譯，新現實主義及其批判，北京：北京大出版社，2002。

Klare, Michael T.（邁克爾.克萊爾）著，童新耕，之也譯，資源戰爭：全球沖突的新場景，上海：上海譯文出版社，2002。

Kleveman, Lutz（盧茨.克萊維曼）著，王振西主譯，新大牌局：亞洲腹地大國角力內幕，北京：新華出版社，2006。

Nazarbayev, Nursultan Abishevich（納扎爾巴耶夫）著，站在21世紀的門檻上：總統手記（中譯本），北京：時事出版社，1997年。

Peimani, Hooman（胡曼.佩馬尼）著，王振西主譯，虎視中亞，北京：新華出版社，2002。

Rashid, Ahmed（阿哈瑪.拉希德）著，陳建勳等譯，神學士：歐瑪爾與賓拉登的「全球聖戰」，台北：新新聞文化，2001。

Tokaev, K. K.（卡•托卡耶夫）著，中亞之鷹的外交戰略，賽•納雷索夫譯，北京：新華出版社，2002。

Waltz, Kenneth N.（肯尼斯 N. 華爾滋）著，胡少華，王紅纓譯，國際政治理論，北京：中國人民公安大學，1992。

Zhiznin, Stanislav Z.（日茲寧）著，張曉雲等譯，國際能源：政治與外交，上海：華東師範大學出版社，2005。

（三） 期刊與論文
巴克拉諾夫，周建英譯，「論當代地緣政治範疇」，俄羅斯中亞東歐研究，第6期，（2004年），頁89-93。

朱新光，「獨聯體中亞五國民族關系多元化格局芻議」，新疆大學學報（哲學社會科學版），第25卷，第1期，（1997年），頁60-64。

呂冠頤，現狀霸權與崛起強權互動模式之研究：一個理論與歷史的分析途徑，台灣大學政治學研究所碩士論文，2003年。

吳東野，「後冷戰時期歐盟對中亞地區之戰略作為：強權政治的意涵」，問題與研究，第45卷，第4期，（2006年），頁1-30。

季紅，「石油安全：中國崛起的軟肋」，經濟導刊，第12期，（2004年），頁84-86。

岳小文、劉俊鋒、王欽，「�堮�地區油氣資源與管道建設（上）」，國際石油經濟，10月號，（2003年），頁33-46。

馬勇、王建平，「中亞的恐怖主義探源」，世界政治與經濟，第2期，（2003年），頁39-44。

柳豐華，「中國在中亞：政策的演變」，俄羅斯中亞東歐研究，第6期，（2007年），頁63-72。

許濤，「中亞地區安全格局中的民族問題」，現代國際關係，第10期，（1999年），頁32-36。

張文德，「關於中亞伊斯蘭教史的分期」，貴州師範大學學報（社會科學版），第1期（總第78期），（1994年），頁1-5。

張文燦，余學會，「『烏茲別克伊斯蘭運動』概況及對中亞地區的影響」，新疆大學學報（社會科學版），第30卷增刊，2002年7月，頁39-42。

張來儀，塔吉克斯坦的伊斯蘭復興黨，《中歐中亞研究》，第4期，（1999年），頁94-96。

郭武平，「美伊戰後的中亞情勢」，國際論壇，第3期，（2004年），頁1-21。

陳朝政，「強權在中亞與外高加索地區的競逐」，美歐季刊，第15卷，第1期，（2001年），頁117-152。

葛承雍，「絲綢之路與古今中亞」，歷史月刊，第122期，（1998年），頁26-33。

趙竹成，「中亞的俄羅斯人問題」，歷史月刊，第122期，（1998年），頁51-57。

鄭坤亮，瑪達尼亞，「東突恐怖主義的歷史根源」，歷史教學，第1期（總第482期），（2004年），頁28-31。

歐陽承新，「百年動盪話中亞—蘇聯解體後的民族問題探源」，歷史月刊，第122期，（1998年），頁34-43。

羅勝雄，「美日中俄在中亞地區之石油競逐」，中共研究，第40卷，第6期，（2006年），頁92-106。

蘇武•塘麗，「二十一世紀能源爭奪戰中的中亞地位」，歷史月刊，第122期， （1998年），頁44-57。

龍舒甲，「『納--卡』問題爭端之背景與發展」，問題與研究，第34卷，第11期，（1995年），頁79-90。

龍舒甲，「古阿姆五國論壇發展之研析」，問題與研究，第40卷，第2期，（2001年），頁67-81。

龍舒甲，「外高加索地區新情勢：兼論俄羅斯對該地區政策之轉變」，問題與研究，第40卷，第3期，（2001年），頁49-67。

龍舒甲，「從石油利益論『九一一事件』後的中亞地區與其周邊情勢」，問題與研究，第41卷，第6期，（2002年），頁109-123。

龍舒甲，「論�堮�能源與外高加索地區安全之關係」，問題與研究，第42卷，第2期，（2003年），頁95-113。

龍舒甲，「美國對格魯吉亞的外交政策」，問題與研究，第44卷，第5期，（2005年），頁85-101。

（四） 網路新聞資料
施為，〈美國預警機企圖靠近新疆，中國邊境安全受威脅〉，《世界新聞報》，2005年2月25日。
http://gb.cri.cn/2201/2005/02/22/1405@456953.htm

李曉春、陳誠，〈美用重金滲透中亞五國監督其民主進程〉，2006年3月6日，《環球時報》。
http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2006-03-02/14579246266.shtml

新華網，〈日刊：布希主義與夏蘭斯基，夏為布提供理論基礎〉，2005年07月18日。http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-07/18/content_3233547.htm

《「上海合作組織」成員國外交部長會議聯合公報》，2005年2月25日。

二、 外文參考文獻

（一） 專書
Akiner, Shirin, Central Asia : Conflict or Stability and Development, London : Minority Rights Group, 1997.

Akiner, Shirin, The Caspian:Politics, Energy, Security. RoutledgeCurzon, 2004.

Akiner, Shirin, Violence in Andijan, 13 May 2005: An Independent Assessment, Johns Hopkins University, Uppsala University, 2005.

Allison, Roy and Jonson, Lena, Central Asian Security, The New International Context, The Brookings Institution, 2001.

Allworth, Edward ed., Central Asia: 130 years of Russian Dominance, Durham and London: Duke University Press, 1994.

Banuazizi, Ali & Weiner, Myron, eds., The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and Its Borderlands, Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1994.

Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, N. Y.: Basic Books, 1997.

Byrd, William A, ed., Economic Cooperation in the Wider Central Asia Region, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2006.

Buzan, Barry, Charles Jones and Richard Little, The Logic of Anarchy: Neorealism to Structural Realism, N.Y.: Columbia University Press, 1993.

Cohen, Ariel, ed., Eurasia in Balance: The US and The Regional Power Shift, Burlington, V.T. : Ashgate, 2005.

Cummings, Sally N, ed., Power and change in Central Asia, London; N.Y.: Routledge, 2002.

Cummings, Sally N, ed., Oil, Transition and Security in Central Asia, London; N.Y.: Routledge Curzon, 2003.

Davis, Elizabeth Van Wie and Azizian, Rouben, eds., Islam, Oil, and Geopolitics: Central Asia after September 11, Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2007.

Dougherty, James E and Pfaltzgraff, Robert L, Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 5th edition, N.Y.: Longman, 2001.

Fouskas, Vassilis K. and Gökay, Bülent, The New American Imperialism: Bush''s War on Terror and Blood for Oil, Westport, Conn.: Praeger Security International, 2005.

Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.

Hedenskog, Jakob, Konnander, Vilhelm, Nygren, Bertil, Oldberg, Ingmar and Pursiainen, Christer ed., Russia As a Great Power: Dimensions of Security Under Putin, London; N.Y.: Routledge, 2005.

Hitti, Philip K., History of the Arabs, London: Macmillan, 1946.

Hopkirk, Peter, The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia , N.Y.: Kodansha International, 1992.

Ikenberry, G. John ed., America Unrivaled- the Future of the Balance of Power, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002.

Isakova, Irina Viktorovna, Russian Governance in the Twenty-First Century: Geo-Strategy, Geopolitics and Governance, London; N.Y.: Frank Cass, 2005.

Jackson, Nicole J, Russian Foreign Policy and the CIS: Theories, Debates and Actions, London; N.Y.: Routledge, 2003.

Jervis, Robert, American Foreign Policy in a New Era, N.Y.: Routledge, 2005.

Jonson, Lena, Allison, Roy, Central Asian Security: The New International Context, Royal Institute of International Affairs, Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2001.

Kanet, Roger E., ed., The New Security Environment: the Impact on Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, Aldershot, Hants, England; Burlington, V.T.: Ashgate, 2005.

Keohane, Robert O. ed., Neorealism and Its Critics, N.Y.: Columbia University Press, 1986.

Kindleberger, Charles P., The World in Depression 1929-1939, Berkeley: University of California, 1973.

Lal, Rollie, Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads, Rand Corporation, 2006.

Laumulin, Murat, The Geopolitics of XXI Century in Central Asia, Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Almaty, 2007.

Legvold, Robert, ed., Thinking Strategically: the Major Powers, Kazakhstan, and the Central Asian Nexus, Cambridge: American Academy of Arts and Sciences: MIT Press, 2003.

Lo, Bobo, Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Reality, Illusion, and Mythmaking, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire; N. Y.: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002.

Mahnovski,Sergej, Akramov, Kamiljon T., Karasik, Theodore W., Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia, Rand Corporation, 2005.

Malik, Hafeez ed., Central Asia: Its Strategic Importance and Future Prospects, N.Y.: SL Martin''s Press, 1996.

Manning, Robert A, The Asian Energy Factor: Myths and Dilemmas of Energy, Security and the Pacific Future, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire; N. Y.: Palgrave, 2000.

Menon, Rajan, Fedorov, Yuri E., and Nodia, Ghia, eds., Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia: the 21st Century Security Environment, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1999.

Meyer, Karl Ernest, The Dust of Empire: The Race for Mastery in the Asian Heartland, N.Y.: PublicAffairs, 2004.

Moore, Rebecca R, NATO''s New Mission: Projecting Stability in a Post-Cold War World, Westport, Conn.: Praeger Security International, 2007.

Morgenthau, H. J., Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 5th Edition, N.Y.: Knopf, 1978

Olcott, Martha Brill, Central Asia''s Second Chance, Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005.

Oliker, Olga and Szayna, Thomas S., Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Implications for the U.S. Army, Rand Corporation, 2003.

Oliker, Olga and Shlapak, David A., U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles, Rand Corporation, 2005.

Organski, A. F. K., World Politics, N.Y.: Knopf, 1958.

Organski, A. F. K. and Kugler J., The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980.

Pomfret, Richard W. T, The Central Asian Economies Since Independence, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006.

Ponsard, Lionel, Russia, NATO and Cooperative Security: Bridging the Gap, London; N.Y.: Routledge, 2007.

Rashid, Ahmed, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, New Haven: Yale Nota Bene, 2001

Rotberg, Robert I., Rabb, Theodore K. and Gilpin, Robert, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major War, Cambridge University Press, 1989

Roy, Olivier, The New Central Asia: the Creation of Nations, London; N.Y.: I. B. Tauris, 2000.

Rumer, Boris Z., ed., Central Asia in Transition: Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1996.

Rumer, Boris Z. and Zhukov, S. V., eds., Central Asia: the challenges of independence, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1998.

Rumer, Boris Z., ed., Central Asia and the New Global Economy, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 2000.

Rumer, Boris Z., ed., Central Asia: A Gathering Storm?, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 2002.

Rumer, Boris Z., ed., Central Asia at the end of the transition, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 2005.

Rumer, Eugene Dmitri Trenin, and Huasheng Zhao, Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 2007.

Sokolsky, Richard and Tanya Charlick-Paley, NATO and Caspian Security: A Mission Too Far?, Rand Corporation, 1999.

Smith, Martin A., Russia and NATO since 1991: from Cold War through Cold Peace to Partnership?, London; New York: Routledge, 2006.

Snow, Donald M., The Shape of the Future: the Post-Cold War World, New York: M. E. Sharp, Armonk, 1995.

Vasquez , John A. and , Elman , Colin, eds., Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate, Upper Saddle River: Pearson Education, 2003.

Walt, Stephen M., The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.

Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co., 1979.

Wesley, Michael, ed., Energy Security in Asia, London; New York: Routledge, 2007.

（二） 期刊
Atal, Subodh, “Central Asia Geopolitics and U.S. Policy in the Region: The Post-11 September Era”, Mediterranean Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 2, Spring 2003, pp. 95-109.

Bobokulov, Inomjon, “Central Asia: Is There An Alternative to Regional Integration?”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 25, Issue 1/2, Mar-Jun 2006, pp. 75-91.

Bohr, Annette, “Regionalism in Central Asia: New Geopolitics, Old Regional Order”, International Affairs, Vol. 80, Issue 3, May 2004, pp. 485-502.

Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “A Geostrategy for Eurasia”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, Issue 5, September/ October 1997, pp. 50-64.

Buszynski, Leszek, “Russia''s New Role in Central Asia”, Asian Survey, Vol. 45, No. 4, Aug 2005, pp. 546-565.

Collins, A Kathleen and Wohlforth, William C., “Central Asia: Defying ''Great Game'' Expectations” in Richard Ellings and Michael Wills, eds., Strategic Asia, 2003-4: Fragility and Crisis, Seattle, Washington: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2003.

DiCicco, Jonathan M. and Levy, Jack S., “Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of The Power Transition Research Program”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 6, 1999, pp. 675-704.

Levy, Jack S., “Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War”, World Politics, Vol. 40, October 1987, pp. 82-107.

Hay, William Anthony, “Geopolitics of Europe”, Orbis, Vol. 47, Issue 2, Spring 2003, pp. 295-310.

Herzig, Edmund, “Regionalism, Iran and Central Asia”, International Affairs, Vol. 80, Issue 3, May 2004, pp. 503-517.

Hill, Fiona, “A Not-So-Grand Strategy: United States Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia since 1991”, Politique étrangère, February 1, 2001.

Hunter, Shireen T., “Religion, Politics, and Security in Central Asia”, SAIS Review, Vol. 11, No. 2, Summer-Fall 2001, pp. 65-90.

Karayianni, Marika S., “Russia’s Foreign Policy for Central Asia Passes through Energy Agreements”, Central Asia and the Caucasus, No.4, 2003, pp. 90-96.

Kavalski, Emilian, “Partnership or Rivalry between the EU, China and India in Central Asia: The Normative Power of Regional Actors with Global Aspirations”, European Law Journal, Vol. 13, No. 6, Nov. 2007, pp. 839-856

Klare, Michael T., “The New Geography of Conflict”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 3, May/June 2001, pp. 49-61.

Kubicek, Paul, “Regionalism, Nationalism and Realpolitik in Central Asia”, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 49, No. 4, Jun. 1997, pp. 637-655.

MacFarlane, S. Neil, “Russia, the West and European Security”, Survival, Vol. 35, No. 3, Autumn 1993, pp. 3-25.

Menon, Rajan, “The New Great Game in Central Asia”, Survival, Vol. 45, No. 2, Summer 2003, pp. 187-204.

Menon, Rajan, “In the Shadow of the Bear: Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia”, International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1, Summer 1995, pp. 149-181.

Olcott, Martha Brill, “The Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia”, Carnegie Paper, No. 77, January 2007, Carnegie Endowment, pp. 17-26.

Pham, J. Peter, “Beijing''s Great Game: Understanding Chinese Strategy in Central Eurasia”, American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol. 28, No. 1, Feb. 2006, pp. 53-67.

Rashid, Ahmed, “The New Struggle in Central Asia: A Primer for the Baffled”, World Policy Journal, Vol. 17, Issue 4, Winter 2000/2001, pp. 33-45.

Rashid, Ahmed, “The Fires of Faith in Central Asia”, World Policy Journal, Vol. 18, Issue 1, Spring 2001, pp. 45-55.

Rashid, Ahmed, “The Great Trade Game”, Far Eastern Economic Review, Vol. 166, Issue. 4, Jan 30, 2003, p. 18.

Rumer, Boris, “The Powers in Central Asia”, Survival, Vol. 44, No. 3, Autumn 2002, pp. 57-68.

Rumer, Eugene, “The U.S. Interests and Role in Central Asia after K2”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 29, Issue 3, Summer 2006, pp. 141-154.

Sandole, Dennis J.D., “Central Asia: Managing the Delicate Balance between the Discourse of Danger, the Great Game, and Regional Problem Solving”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 40, Issue 2, June 2007, pp. 257-267.

Schroeder, Paul W., “Historical Reality vs. Neorealist Theory”, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, Summer 1994, pp. 108-148.

Snidal, Duncan, “The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory”, International Organization, Vol. 39, pp. 579-614.

Snyder, Glenn H., “Process Variables in Neorealist Theory”, Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, Spring 1996, pp. 167-192.

Starr, S. Frederick, “A Partnership for Central Asia”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, Issue 4, July/August 2005, pp. 164-178.

Talbott, Strobe, “A Farewell to Flashman: American Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia”, U.S. Department of State Dispatch, Vol. 8, No. 6, July 1997.

Waltz, Kenneth N. “Structural Realism after the Cold War”, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 1, Summer 2000, pp.5-41.

Weitz, Richard, “The CSTO Deepens Military Ties”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Vol. 8, No. 20, 18 October, 2006.

Zakaria, Fareed, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy”, Foreign Affair, Vol. 76, Issue 6, Jan/Feb 1997, pp. 22-43.

（三） 官方及組織文件
A. Elizabeth Jones, “U. S. Central Asian Cooperation”, Testimony to the Subcommittee on Central Asia and the Caucasus, Foreign Relation Committee, U.S. Senate, December 13, 2001, Available from: http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2001/11299.htm

Asian Development Bank, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Member Countries: Regional Cooperation Strategy and Program (2005-2007), July 2004, Available from: http://www.adb.org/Documents/CSPs/CAREC/2004/default.asp

B. Lynn Pascoe, “The U.S. Role in Central Asia”, Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Washington, D.C., June 27, 2002. Available from: http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2002/11535.htm

Boucher, Richard A., Remarks at Electricity Beyond Borders: A Central Asia Power Sector Forum, Istanbul, Turkey, June 13, 2006, Available from: http://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rm/2006/67838.htm

BP, BP Statistic Review of World Energy, June 2008, Available from: http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622

Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Fact Sheet, Promoting Long-term Stability in Central Asia: U.S. Government Assistance One Year After 9/11, Washington, D.C., November 27, 2002, Available from: http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/15560.htm

Bush, George W. “Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People”, September 20, 2001, United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., Available from: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html

Bush, George W., “State of the Union Address at the U.S. Capitol, Wednesday”, Feb. 2, 2005. Available from: http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2005/

Bush, George W. “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America”, March 2006, Available from: http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf

Energy Information Administration, The International Energy Outlook 2007, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington D.C., available from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

Feigenbaum, Evan A., Approach to Central Asia, Remarks at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C., February 6, 2007. http://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rm/2007/80245.htm

Gazeta, Rossiiskaya譯, National Security Concept of the Russian Federation, Approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 of 17 December 1999, Available from: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/gazeta012400.htm

Goldman, Stuart D., CRS Report- IB92089: Russia, April 19, 2001, Available from: http://digital.library.unt.edu/govdocs/crs/permalink/meta-crs-1754:1

Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan agree to renovate the Caspian gas pipeline”, News, May 2007, http://en.government.kz/site/news/052007/16
International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Poverty Reduction, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income CIS Countries, February 4, 2002, Available from: http://www.imf.org/external/np/eu2/2002/edebt/eng/040202.pdf

Jimmy Carter, State of the Union Address 1980, January 23, 1980, Jimmy Carter Library and Museum, Available from: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.org/documents/speeches/su80jec.phtml

Nichol, Jim, “Central Asia''s New States: Political Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests”, CRS Reports, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, March 31, 2000. Available from: http://opencrs.cdt.org/document/IB93108/2000-03-31%2000:00:00

Nichol, Jim, “Central Asia: Regional Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests”, CRS Reports, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, May 18, 2001. Available from: http://opencrs.cdt.org/document/IB93108/2001-05-18%2000:00:00

Nichol, Jim, Central Asia: Regional Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests, CRS Issue Brief for Congress, updated December 14, 2007. Available from: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33458.pdf

The Commercial Department of the U.S., Statistical Abstract of the United States in 1995, Available from: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/statistical-abstract-1995_2000.html

United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Summary Report: International Conference on Enhancing Security and Stability in Central Asia: An Approach to Counter Drugs, Organized Crime and Terrorism, , October 19-20, 2000. Available from: http://www.unodc.org/uzbekistan/en/conference_tashkent_2000-10-19_1.html

U. S. Bureau of Industry and Security, Annual Reports 2000, Chap. 8, Available from: http://www.bis.doc.gov/news/archive2000/reports/fy2000annualreport/tableofcontents.htm

U.S. National Energy Policy Development Group, National Energy Policy: Reliable, Affordable and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future, May 2001. Available from: http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/National-Energy-Policy.pdf

（四） 網路新聞資料
Asia Times Online, Engdahl, F. William, Revolution, Geopolitics and Pipelines,
30 June 2005,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GF30Dj01.html

Asia Times Online, Pepe Escobar, Pipelineistan''s Biggest Game Begins, 26 May 2005, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GE26Ag01.html

BBC News, 7 November 2006, Clashes erupt in Kyrgyz capital, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6124428.stm

BBC News , 14 August 2005, Bakiev sworn in as Kyrgyz leader, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4150084.stm,

BBC News, 21 December 2006, Turkmenistan''s ''iron ruler'' dies, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6198983.stm

BBC News, 14 February 2007, New Turkmen leader is inaugurated,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6359569.stm

Caucaz Europenews, Putin proposes Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) “energy club”, 15 June 2006,
http://en.rian.ru/world/20060615/49512082.html

Centre of Defense Information, Burgess, Mark, In the Spotlight: Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, 25 March 2002,
http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/imu.cfm

Centre of Defense Information, Gunitskiy, Seva, In the Spotlight: East Turkestan Islamic Movement, 9 December 2002,
http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/etim.cfm

Pipeline & Gas Journal, March 1 2002, Putin suggests Eurasian natural gas alliance, http://www.allbusiness.com/mining/support-activities-mining-support-oil/133513-1.html

Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, Parrott, Stuart. Pipeline Superhighway Replaces The Silk Road, 19 November 1997.

Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, Daniel Kimmage, Central Asia: Turkmenistan-China Pipeline Project Has Far-Reaching Implications, 10 April 2006, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1067535.html