臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

創新產品的銷售對於成功的企業來說，佔了總銷售額超過60％，因此，新產品的發展為企業是否生存極大關鍵。在過去，受限於多種無法量化的外部環境因素，預測產品生命週期與銷售量的科學模型難以設立，但隨著Bass擴散模型的發展，預測新產品生命週期與銷售量日趨穩定，但以往Bass 擴散模型多以耐久消費財作為研究對象，且又根據美國電影協會(MPAA, Motion Picture Association of America) 發布的資料顯示，電影產業在全球經濟中扮演著高度的重要性，電影票房的總收入逐年升高，近幾年美國票房帄均收入約為90億美元，全球票房總收入約為110億美元，可見電影產業具有龐大的市場潛能，也是美國一大重要市場，因此本論文將採用在美國上映之電影做為實證分析的對象。
近幾年開始，美國學術界開始對電影產業有相關的探討，但多以評價的質與量來衡量其口碑效果，本研究利用觀眾首週對於該部電影的評價之機率分配，詴圖以新的方法來衡量口碑效果。本研究分析模式的主要分析方法為Bass擴散模式，在Bass 擴散模式中加入觀眾對於該部電影評價的機率分配變數，比較舊有只考慮評價質與量的擴散模式，以求最佳創新產品銷售預測模式。

Sales of innovative products for the successful enterprises accounts for more than 60% of total sales, therefore, new product development is the key to success for a company in the modern business world. Being limited by various non-quantifiable external environmental factors during the past, it was not easy to set up the science relation for sales amount prediction. But following Bass model’s development, the model which used to forecast life cycle of new products and sales is more stable.
Most former research paper used durable goods as research object, but according to Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA, Motion Picture Association of America), the film industry in the global economy plays an important role, the film''s total box office revenue about 11 billion U.S. dollars, and the U.S. box office in recent years about 9 billion U.S. dollars. The film industry is a high potential market, therefore, it used the films which released in U.S. be research object.
In recent years, there are more research related to film industry, but most of them used quality and quantity to measure word-of-mouth effect. This study added “the probability distribution of the evaluation of audience for the film in the first week” factor to measure word-of-mouth. The main analytical methods for the analysis model of this research are Bass Diffusion Model. In this research, the probability distribution of the evaluation of audience is added in the Bass Diffusion, as such, it is the purpose of this research to obtain optimal innovative product sales amount prediction model for providing a model example of scientific prediction to the industry.

目錄

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究範圍 2
第四節 研究流程 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 美國電影市場概況 5
第二節 創新與創新採用者 8
第三節 擴散理論 12
第四節 口碑效果 14
第五節 擴散模型 17
第三章 研究方法 23
第一節 研究架構 23
第二節 研究方法與模型 24
第四章 實證研究分析 28
第一節 資料來源與分析 28
第二節 實證模式建構 36
第三節 Bass擴散模型迴歸分析 41
第四節 模式預測效度比較 41
第五節 最佳預測模式 43
第五章 結論與建議 52
第一節 研究發現與行銷意涵 52
第二節 研究限制 53
第三節 後續研究建議 54
參考文獻 55
附錄 58

中文部分
1.曾羨書，美國電影票房績效研究：從口碑、影評、卡司與電影類型角度觀之，民國九十五年六月。
2.王薇雲，個人偏好模式與產品擴散模式再創新產品銷售預測能力之比較-以電影為例，民國九十二年六月。
3.李心嵐，跨國新產品銷售預測模式之研究-以電影為例，國立政治大學國際貿易學系碩士論文，民國八十九年六月。
4.劉小芳，跨國流行商品擴散模型之比較研究：美國影片在台灣銷售預測模型的建立，民國八十八年六月。
5.謝承翰，產品擴散之跨國性比較-以創新擴散模型為分析工具，國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。
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英文部分
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17.Ziemer, D.R.(1988),“Marketplace sizing and timing scenarios,”working paper, Management Department Center, Texas Instruments Inc.,Dallas.
18.Richins, Marsha L. (1983), “Negative Word-of-Mouth by Dissatisfied Consumers: A Pilot Study,” Journal of Marketing, 47( Winter), 68-78.
19.Rogers,E.M.（1995）, Diffusion of Innovation, 4th ed., New Yor: The Free Press.
20.Soderlund, Magnus (1998), “Customer Satisfaction and Its Consequences on Customer Behaviour Revisited,” International Journal of Service Industry Management, 9(2), 169-188.
21.Yong Liu(2006),“Word of Mouth for Movies：Its Dynamics and Impact on Box Office Revenue,”Journal of Marketing,Vol.70，74-89
22.Ziemer, D.R.(1988),“Marketplace sizing and timing scenarios,”working paper, Management Department Center, Texas Instruments Inc.,Dallas