臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究於Jones model (Jones 1991, Dechow et al. 1995) 及績效配對模型(Kothari et al. 2005)的基礎上，探討存貨具未來性的資訊內涵，是否影響裁決性應計數的估計模式。Chan et al. (2006)及Thomas and Zhang (2002)皆發現應計數與未來股價報酬呈負相關的原因(Sloan 1996)，主要來自存貨項目，代表存貨具有不同於其他應計項目之資訊內涵。藉由放寬Dechow et al. (1998)的模型假設，察覺存貨變動除了與當期銷貨變動相關外，也受銷貨收入函數的隨機過程及經理人存貨決策的影響。而經理人的決策依過去存貨與銷貨的資訊及對未來的銷貨預期而定，故不能僅以當期銷貨變動估計正常的存貨變動。因為存貨反映過去、現在及未來資訊，本研究依此估計一個包括過去、現在及未來資訊的存貨變動控制項(NorΔInv)，加入Jones model中，改善僅以當期銷貨變動估計非裁決性應計數的不足處。研究的模擬結果指出，存貨變動控制項(NorΔInv)可減少裁決性應計數的估計誤差，提升盈餘管理研究結果的可信度。
本研究另以現金增資的實際事件，測試Jones model與本研究模型，用於實際資料的差異。將樣本依銷貨與存貨變動方向，分成正向組別與反向組別，正向組別的結果與全部樣本一致地指出，現金增資公司有向上管理盈餘的現象。但是在反向組別�堙A二種模型的結果都無顯著的結果。而將反向組別的微小變動值刪除，增加模型估計的誤差後，Jones model裁決性應計數之結果指出，現金增資公司有顯著的向下盈餘管理行為，而本研究模型之裁決性應計數結果，依然呈不顯著的情況。這個結果說明Jones model在銷貨成長樣本中，會做出向下管理盈餘的誤判，而存貨變動控制項能改善Jones model的估計偏誤。

This study examines the role of inventory on estimates of discretionary accruals. Chan et al. (2006) and Thomas and Zhang (2002) indicate that the negative relation between accruals and future abnormal returns pointed out by Sloan (1996) is due mainly to changes in inventory, so there is more information in changes in inventory than in other accrual items. This paper modifies the model of Dechow et al. (1998) to show that changes in inventory do not just depend on changes in sales, but both on generation processes of sales and firms’ inventory policies. As mentioned above, it is not appropriate to only using current changes in sales to estimate normal changes in inventory, one of nondiscretionary accrual components. However, few studies investigate the effect of inventory on discretionary accruals. To overcome this shortcoming, this study proposed inventory control variables, (NorΔInv), that captures the past, current, and future information in inventory. After adding the control variable to Jones, modified-Jones and performance-matched models, this study examines the specification and the power of tests based on the discretionary accrual measures with the inventory control variables and compares with tests using original discretionary accrual measures. Besides, the study also examines the effect of inventory control variables on discretionary accruals by SEO event. The evidence of SEO event indicates that Jones model esimates discretionary accruals with bias and the inventory control variables could mitigate the bias. The results suggest that the inventory control variables can improve the specification and power of test of discretionary accrual measures and enhance the reliability of inferences from earnings management research.

口試委員會審定書………………………………………………………………………i
謝辭………………………………………………………………… ii
中文摘要……………………………………………………………iii
英文摘要 ……………………………………………………………iv
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………1
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………3
2.1應計項目資訊內涵文獻………………………………………… 3
2.2裁決性應計數估計模型………………………………………… 4
第三章 模型推展與建立假說………………………………………9
3.1盈餘、現金流量及總應計數原始模型………………………… 9
3.2模型之變型及對裁決性應計數之影響…………………………10
3.3假說建立…………………………………………………………15
第四章 樣本選取及模擬程序…………………………………… 19
4.1樣本選取…………………………………………………………19
4.2變數衡量及模型定義……………………………………………19
4.3測試統計量………………………………………………………21
4.4樣本敘述性統計…………………………………………………22
4.5裁決性應計數之敘述性統計……………………………………25
第五章 型一錯誤………………………………………………… 27
5.1對立假說為裁決性應計數為負之拒絕率………………………27
5.2對立假說為裁決性應計數為正之拒絕率………………………29
5.3銷貨變動與存貨變動關係對型一錯誤的影響…………………29
第六章 各估計模式之檢定力…………………………………… 31
第七章 敏感性測試……………………………………………… 33
7.1以成本基礎置入盈餘操弄因子…………………………………33
7.2以Fama and French (1997)產業分類之結果…………………34
7.3無母數統計量之測試結果………………………………………35
7.4前期與當期績效控制項之比較 …………………………………35
7.5無微小變動之之測試結果………………………………………36
第八章 現金增資（SEO）與盈餘管理……………………………38
8.1發行新股與盈餘管理相關文獻探討……………………………38
8.2假說建立…………………………………………………………41
8.3樣本選取…………………………………………………………43
8.4實證結果…………………………………………………………43
8.5現金增資與盈餘管理之敏感性測試……………………………47
8.6現金增資與盈餘管理之結論……………………………………48
第九章 結論與建議……………………………………………… 49
參考文獻……… ……………………………………………………51

Aharony, J., C. Lin, and M. Loeb. 1993. Initial public offerings, accounting choices, and earnings management. Contemporary Accounting Research 10: 61-81.
Ali, A., L. Hwang, and M. A. Trombley. 2000. Accruals and future stock returns: Tests of the naïve investor hypothesis. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 15: 161-181.
Ball, R., and L. Shivakumar. 2008. Earnings quality at initial public offerings. Journal of Accounting and Economcis, forthcoming.
Barth, M. E., D. P. Cram, and K. K. Nelson. 2001. Accruals and the prediction of future cash flows. The Accounting Review 76: 27-58.
Becker, C. L., M. L. DeFond, J. Jiambalvo, and K. R. Subramanyam. 1998. The effect of audit quality on earnings management. Contemporary Accounting research 15:1-24.
Beneish, M. 1997. Detecting GAAP violation: Implications for assessing earnings management among firms with extreme financial performance. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 16: 271-309.
Beneish, M. D. 1999. The detection of earnings manipulation. Financial Analysts Journal 55: 24-36.
Bergstresser, D., and T. Philippon. 2006. CEO incentive and earnings management. Journal of Financial Economics 80: 511-529.
Bernard, V. L., and J. K. Thomas. 1989. Post-earnings-announcement drift: Delayed price response or risk premium? Journal of Accounting Research 27: 1-48.
Bernard, V., and D. J. Skinner. 1996. What motivates managers'' choice of discretionary accruals? Journal of Accounting and Economics 22: 313-325.
Bernard, V., and J. Noel. 1991. Do inventory disclosures predict sales and earnings? Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 6: 145-181.
Bowen, R. M., L. DuCharme, and D. Shores. 1995. Stakeholders’ implicit claims and accounting method choice. Journal of Accounting and Economics 20:255-295.
Carter, M. E., L. J. Lynch, and S. L. C. Zechman. 2005. The relation between executive compensation and earnings management: Changes in the post-Sarbanes-Oxley era. Working paper, University of Pennsylvania and University of Virginia.
Chan K., L. K. C. Chan, N. Jegadeesh, and J. Lakonishok. 2006. Earnings quality and stock returns. Journal of Business 79: 1041-1082.
Cohen, D. A., and T. Z. Lys. 2006. Weighing the evidence on the relation between external corporate financing activities, accruals and stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 42: 87-105.
Collins, D. W., and P. Hribar. 2000. Earnings-based and accrual-based market anomalies: One effect of two? Journal of Accounting and Economics 29: 101-123.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1986. Accounting numbers as market valuation substitutes: A study of management buyouts of public stockholders. The Accounting Review 61: 400-420.
Dechow, P. M., R. G. Sloan, and A. P. Sweeney. 1995. Detecting earnings management. The Accounting Review 70: 193-225.
Dechow, P. M., S. A. Richardson, and I. Tuna. 2003. Why are earnings kinky? An examination of the earnings management explanation. Review of Accounting Studies 8: 355-384.
Dechow, P. M., S. P. Kothari, and R. L. Watts. 1998. The relation between earnings and cash flows. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 133-168.
DeFond, M. L., and J. Jiamalvo. 1994. Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 17: 145-176.
DeFond, M. L., and C. W. Park. 1997. Smoothing income in anticipation of future earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 23: 115-139.
DeFond, M. L., and K.R. Subramanyam. 1998. Auditor changes and discretionary accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 35-67.
Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings management to exceed thresholds. The Journal of Business 72: 1-33.
DuCharme, L. L., P. H. Malatesta, and S. E. Sefcik. 2001. Earnings management: IPO valuation and subsequent performance. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance, 16: 369-396.
Erickson, M., and S. Wang. 1999. Earnings management by acquiring firms in stock for stock mergers. Journal of Accounting and Economics 27: 149-176.
Fama, E. F., and K. R. French. 1997. Industry costs of equity. Journal of Financial Economics 43:153-193.
Francis, J., D. Philbrick, and K. Schipper. 1994. Shareholder litigation and coporate disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research 32:137-164.
Friedlan, J. M. 1994. Accounting choices of issuers of initial public offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 11: 1-31.
Guay, W. R., S. P. Kothari, and R. L. Watts. 1996. A market-based evaluation of discretionary accrual models. Journal of Accounting Research 34: 83-105.
Hayn, H. 1995. The information content of losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 20: 125-154.
Healy P. M., and J. M. Wahlen. 1999. A review of the earnings management literature and its implications for standard setting. Accounting Horizons 13: 365-383.
Healy, P. M. 1985. The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions. Journal of Accounting and Economics 7: 85-107.
Heninger, W. G. 2001 The association between auditor litigation and abnormal accruals. The Accounting Review 76: 111-126.
Hribar, P., and D. W. Collins. 2002. Errors in estimating accruals: Implication for empirical research. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 105-134.
Jaimbalvo, J., E. Noreen, and T. Shevlin. 1997. Incremental information content of the change in the percent of production added to inventory. Contemporary Accounting Research 14: 69-97.
Jones, J. 1991. Earnings management during import relief investigations. Journal of Accounting Research 29: 193-228.
Kasznik, R. 1999. On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 57-82.
Kim, Y., and M. S. Park. 2005. Pricing of seasoned equity offers and earnings management. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 40: 435-463.
Kothari, S. P., A. J. Leone, and C. E. Wasley. 2005. Performance matched discretionary accrual measures. Journal of Accounting and Economics 39: 163-197.
Kraft, A., A. J. Leone, and C. Wasley. 2006. An analysis of the theories and explanations offered for the mispricing of accruals and accrual components. Journal of Accounting Research 44: 297-339.
Lee, K. W., B. Lev, and G. Yeo. 2007. Organizational structure and earnings management. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 22: 293-331.
Lee, J. C. W., L. Yue and H. Yue. 2006. Performance, growth and earnings management. Review of Accounting studies 11: 305-334.
Louis, H. 2004. Earnings management and the market performance of acquiring firms. Journal of Financial Economics 74: 121-148.
Marquardt, C. A., and C. I. Wiedman. 2004. The effect of earnings management on the value relevance of accounting information. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 31: 297-332.
McNichols, M. F. 2000. Research design issues in earnings management studies. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 19: 313-345.
McNichols, M. F. 2002. Discussion of The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review 77: 61-69.
McNichols, M., and P. Wilson. 1988. Evidence of earnings management from the provision for bad debts. Journal of Accounting Research 26: 1-31.
Ou, J. 1990. The information content of nonearnings accounting numbers as earnings predictors. Journal of Accounting Research 28: 144-163.
Peasnell, K. V., P. F. Pope, and S. Young. 2000. Detecting earnings management using cross-sectional abnormal accruals models. Accounting and Business Research 30: 313-326.
Rangan, S. 1998. Earnings management and the performance of seasoned equity offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 50: 101-122.
Rees, L., S. Gill, and R. Gore. 1996. An investigation of asset write-down and concurrent abnormal accrual. Journal of Accounting Research 34: 157-169.
Richardson, S. 2006. Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of Accounting Studies 11: 159-189.
Ritter, J. 1991. The long-term performance of initial public offerings. Journal of Finance 46: 3-27.
Rosner, R. L. 2003. Earnings manipulation in failing firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 20: 361-408.
Roychowdhury, S. 2006. Earnings management through real activities manipulation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 42: 335-370.
Shleifer, A. 2000. Inefficient markets: An introduction to behavioral finance. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Shivakumar, L. 2000. Do firms mislead investors by overstating earnings before seasoned equity offering? Journal of Accounting and Economics 29: 339-371.
Sims, C. A. 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48, 1-48.
Sloan, R. 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71: 289-315.
Subramanyam, K. R. 1996. The pricing of discretionary accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 22: 249-281
Teoh, S. H., I. Welch, and T. J. Wong. 1998a. Earnings management and the long-run market performance of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance 53: 1935-1974.
Teoh, S. H., I. Welch, and T. J. Wong 1998b. Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 50: 63-99.
Teoh, S. H., and T. J. Wong. 2002. Why new issues and high-accrual firms underperform: The role of analysts’ credulity. The Review of Financial Studies 15: 869-900.
Teoh, S. H., T. J. Wong, and G. R. Rao. 1998. Are accruals during initial public offerings opportunistic? Review of Accounting Studies 3: 175-208.
Thomas, J., and H. Zhang. 2002. Inventory changes and future returns. Review of Accounting Studies 7: 163-187.
Thomas, J., and X. Zhang. 2000. Identifying unexpected accruals: a comparison of current approaches. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 19: 347-376.
Tucker, J. W., and P. A. Zarwin. 2006. Does income smoothing improve earnings informativeness? The Accounting Review 81: 251-270.
White, H. 1980. A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica 48: 817-838.
Xie, H. 2001. The mispricing of abnormal accruals. The Accounting Review 76: 357-373.
Zach, T. 2003. Inside the ''accrual anomaly''. Working paper, Washington University in St. Louis.