臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，基於載重與阻抗因子（load factor and resistance factor design；LRFD）的可靠度設計法已漸漸取代舊有的安全係數法。校準阻抗因子的常用方式，是根據現地實驗得到的實際承載力，除以用土層參數預估出來的承載力，以得到承載比（實際承載力/預估承載力）的資料，根據這些承載比的平均值及變異係數，即可以得到阻抗因子與設計破壞機率（或可靠度）的關係。很明顯的，在這過程當中，若選用不同的預測模型，所校準出來的阻抗因子是不一樣的，那麼我們應該用哪一個預測模型來校準阻抗因子？原則上這是ㄧ個模型選定的問題，一般的作法是認為承載比變異係數最小的預測模型，就是最好的模型。這個研究根據一組試樁的資料庫的分析結果，與上述說法有些許違背：我們發現針對這個資料庫而言，承載比變異係數最小的預測模型，並非真的是最好的模型，因此我們提出一套嚴謹的機率分析方法，以選出較佳的模型。

This paper addresses the model selection issue often encountered in the process of calibrating reliability-based resistance factors. As well known, a predictive model must be assumed for the purpose of calibrating resistance factors based on in-situ test data. A critical question is raised by this research: which predictive model should we choose? What type of probability distribution model should we pick to model the model uncertainties? Those are important questions to ask because the calibration results seriously depend on the assumed predictive and probabilistic models. A full probabilistic framework is proposed in this research to resolve the model selection issue as well as to calibrate the resistance factors. Two examples of real dataset are used to illustrate the model selection issue and to demonstrate the use of the proposed methods. The proposed methods lead to reasonable conclusions and may contribute code calibration based on in-situ test data.

中文摘要................................I
ABSTRACT ..............................III
致謝....................................V
目錄...................................VI
符號表................................XIV
第一章緒論..............................1
1-1研究動機.............................1
1-2研究目的.............................1
1-3研究方法.............................2
1.4論文架構.............................3
第二章文獻回顧..........................4
2-1基樁極限垂直承載力之行為與機制.......4
2-2影響基樁阻抗之要素...................5
2-3基樁載重試驗與詮釋...................5
2-4可靠度於大地工程之應用..............10
2-4-1何為不確定性(uncertainty)?........10
2-4-2可靠度與極限狀態設計..............12
2-4-3可靠度分析法......................13
2-5貝氏分析法..........................16
2-5-1模型選定問題......................19
2-5-2模型平均..........................20
第三章校準阻抗因子與模型評分...........21
3-1問題定義............................21
3-2應用Evidence量化模型可信度..........22
3-3機率模型 的詳細結構.................23
3-3-1決定預測模型......................23
3-3-2不確定參數的先前分布..............24
3-4Evidence估算法......................26
3-5抽樣演算法..........................29
3-5-1Metropolis演算法..................29
3-5-2混合Gibbs-Metropolis演算法........31
3-6亂度(entropy)估算法.................32
3-7校準阻抗因子........................34
3-8從多種模型選定阻抗因子..............37
第四章案例分析.........................39
4-1基樁相關資訊........................39
4-4-1現地基本資料......................39
4-1-2基樁試樁資訊......................39
4-2預估單樁容許垂直承載力之模型........43
4-2-1 SPT-N法..........................44
4-2-2靜力學公式(1).....................45
4-2-3靜力學公式(2).....................46
4-3分析模型選定........................47
4-4案例訓練............................48
4-5阻抗因子與破壞機率之關係............51
4-6案例結果與討論......................53
第五章結論討論與未來展望...............55
5-1結論................................55
5-2未來展望............................56
參考文獻...............................58
附錄A 基樁試樁曲線與土壤資訊...........95
附錄B Matlab code.....................127

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