臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在探討應計會計基礎盈餘及營業活動現金流量相對預測公司未來現金流量之能力，不同於先前學者們使用股票報酬、未來營業現金流量及未來盈餘做為未來現金流量比較基準之研究，本研究採用事後內部價值法做為預測未來現金流量之比較基準，探討應計基礎及現金基礎何者較能適當反應公司未來現金流量，並驗證FASB認為應計基礎盈餘較能預測未來現金流量之觀點。本研究之研究樣本取自2001年至2006年，本研究實證結果發現，以事後內部價值做為未來現金流量之比較基準時，應計會計基礎盈餘預測未來現金流量之能力優於營業活動現金流量。


關鍵字：盈餘，營業活動現金流量，事後內部價值法

We reexamine the relative importance of accrual-base earnings and operating cash flows in future cash flow prediction. In contrast to previous studies that use stock returns or future operating cash flows or future earnings ,we will use ex post intrinsic value of equity as the criterion for comparison to reexamine the relative importance of earnings and operating cash flows in future cash flow prediction. Ex post intrinsic values better reflect the uncertainty of investors’ future cash flow that be able to demonstrate that FASB suggests that accrual-base is better than cash-base to prediction future cash flow. Our sample collection period is from 2001 to 2006. Our results suggest that accrual based earnings can predic future cash flows better than the operating cash flows.


Key Words: earnings, operating cash flows, ex post intrinsic value
approach

內容目錄
中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii
英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv
誌謝辭　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v
內容目錄　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi
表目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． viii
圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． x
第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第一節　　研究動機與目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第二節　　研究問題．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4
　　第三節　　論文架構及研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．． 4
第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
　　第一節　　現金流量及盈餘預測未來現金流量能力之比較．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
6
　　第二節　　事後內部價值法．．．．．．．．．．．． 24
第三章　　研究方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 27
　　第一節　　研究假說與觀念性架構．．．．．．．．．． 27
　　第二節　　事後內部價值衡量．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
　　第三節　　變數操作型定義．．．．．．．．．．．． 31
　　第四節　　實證模型建立．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 32
　　第五節　　樣本選取及資料分析方法．．．．．．．．． 35
第四章　　實證結果與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38
　　第一節　　敘述性統計．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38
　　第二節　　初步分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 39
　　第三節　　盈餘與營業現金流量對事後內部價值相對之解釋能力．．．．．．．．．．．．．
49
第四節　　敏感性分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 52
第五章　　結論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 55
　　第一節　　研究結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 55
　　第二節　　研究限制與建議．．．．．．．．．．．． 56
參考文獻　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 57

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