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研究生:吳哲慎
研究生(外文):Je-Shen Wu
論文名稱:系統動態學應用於產能與需求平衡之研究-以晶圓代工廠為例
論文名稱(外文):System Dynamics Applied in Capacity and Demand Balancing-A Case Study of Wafer Fabrication Factory
指導教授:張炳騰張炳騰引用關係王文清王文清引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ping-Teng ChangWen-Ching Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:東海大學
系所名稱:工業工程與經營資訊學系
學門:工程學門
學類:工業工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:64
中文關鍵詞:晶圓代工廠系統動態學產能規劃可允諾量
外文關鍵詞:Wafer FabricationSystem DynamicsCapacity PlanningAvailable to Promise
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近年來大眾對於IC產品之需求量大幅增加,在面臨廣大的需求下,以及半導體產業競爭日益劇烈,由於同業競爭之壓力,銷售部門不斷接收訂單以提昇公司之獲利,在執行產能規劃或是產能模擬之中如果沒有擁有良好的可允諾機制,便直接執行生產作業排程,結果將導致產能不足、產能利用率過高、交期訂單無法滿足、顧客流失等問題。因此就本研究內容建構一把產能規畫與需求預測合併的模擬模型。
本研究採用系統動態學為模型建構的基礎,藉由系統動態學特性如高階複雜、回饋、非線性、環環相扣、滯延等特性,真實呈現出系統之行為,提供有效模擬和分析複雜動態系統的工具。觀察系統之行為特徵,並使用因果回饋圖來釐清系統中元素的交互作用,例如產能利用率變高則單位成本下降,但過高會導致達交率降低進而訂單流失。在這樣因果下必須推測隱藏於問題背後之因果回饋環路,充分了解元素間彼此影響性後,將其轉換為數學模型,
本研究欲運用系統動態學以晶圓代工廠之行為模式進行模擬,利用產能利用率的特性分析產能規畫與顧客訂單流失,並且結合系統動態學之回饋特性與可允諾量機制之控制功能,針對產需之各種情況,在不同可允諾量下進行研究。目的使得晶圓代工廠在經營上能依照本身決策走向與產能資源限制下透過此產能與需求的決策支援模式,尋求符合公司的最佳利益。
For the past few years the public demand for IC products significantly increase the semiconductor industry increasingly fierce competition, in the face of the huge of the demand, due to competition with the pressure, sales departments have constantly received orders to enhance the company's profitability. If they don’t have a good ATP in there capacity planning or capacity simulation, then directly execute the production schedule. The results will cause of capacity shortage, capacity utilization low, time of delivery can't satisfied, the loss of customers etc. So on the content of this research build a simulation model can combine capacity planning and demand forecast.
This research uses the system dynamic method to construct the model, system dynamics has a unique characteristic of complex, feedback, nonlinear, linked together and delay, really presents behavior of the system, provides the effective simulation and the analysis complex dynamic system tool. Observe the behavior characteristics of systems , and the use of causal feedback to clarify the interaction of elements in the system, for example if Capacity utilization is up then Unit Cost will down, however Capacity utilization too high will cause on-time delivery down then loss the orders. Then extrapolated the causal feedback loop hidden behind the problem, after fully understood between the element each other influence, will be converted to a mathematical model.
Therefore this research wants using the system dynamics method for simulation the behavior model of wafer fabrication, use the characteristics of capacity utilization to analysis about capacity planning and the loss of customers, and integrating system dynamics feedback characteristics and ATP Mechanism. The method of this research is in view of production and marketing unbalanced situation, and different ATP rules. Purpose of making Wafer Fabrication Factory be able to take their own decision-making and the constraints of capacity resource and use the decision support model in the production and demand for the company's best interests
目錄
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究流程與架構 3
1.4 研究範圍與假設 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 半導體產業概述 6
2.1.1 半導體產業現況簡介 6
2.1.2晶圓代工市場的需求 6
2.2 產能規劃 7
2.2.1 何謂產能 7
2.2.2產能規劃策略 9
2.2.3財務分析 10
2.3 需求管理 10
2.3.1可允諾量(Available-to-Promise, ATP) 11
2.3.2顧客關係管理 11
2.4 系統動態學之相關文獻 13
2.4.1 系統動態學(System Dynamics)簡介 13
2.4.2 系統動態學模型 13
2.4.3 系統動態學之特性 15
2.4.4 系統動態學相關研究 15
2.4.5 I-think軟體相關資料 16
第三章 研究方法 17
3.1 第一階段:產能模擬模型建置 18
3.1.1 概念化階段 18
3.1.2 公式化階段 21
3.2 產能需求平衡控制系統 27
3.2.1 系統動態學與可允諾量控制結合 27
3.2.2 可允諾量導向之產能規劃 28
3.3 研究假設 30
第四章 系統實作與結果分析 31
4.1 個案資料 31
4.1.1 系統演練 33
4.2系統實作 35
4.2.1-產能需求超出產能負荷之情境 35
4.2.2-產能需求接近產能負荷之情境 40
第五章 結論與建議 49
5.1 研究總結 49
5.2 後續研究建議 50
參考文獻 51
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