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研究生:林文生
研究生(外文):Wen-sheng Lin
論文名稱:應用模糊約略專家系統分析小樣本簡單因果模型之研究-以紙業鏈結關係為例
論文名稱(外文):Using Fuzzy-Rough Set Expert System on Small Sample of a Simple Causal modeling Study: for Example of Papermaking Industry’s Connectedness
指導教授:陳昭宏陳昭宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jao-Hong Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立雲林科技大學
系所名稱:資訊管理系碩士班
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:53
中文關鍵詞:因果模型模糊理論約略集合理論專家系統鏈結關係
外文關鍵詞:ConnectednessFuzzy TheoryCausal ModelingExpert SystemRough Set Theory
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往昔在處理簡單因果模型時,往往必須採用統計分析方法,然而此方法必須面臨大樣本數的要求。因此如何找到一個可以有效處理小樣本簡單因果模型問題的方法,是現階段相當重要的課題之一。近年來由於科技不斷的發展,許多人工智慧的理論也不斷推陳出新,而最為密切與貼近生活的應用當屬為專家系統,所謂的專家系統簡單來說是由知識庫(Knowledge Base)和推論引擎(Inference Engine)等機構所組成。其目的是在於當我們付予它某一領域的專家知識時,它便能模仿人類專家去求解問題並提供最適當的意見,而此方法並不受限於樣本數的要求。
專家系統的建立是根據專家在專業領域上的處理事務經驗,依照符合相關條件行為相對應的結論所推論而得。而傳統的約略集合理論因為對於資料的處理上不具有模糊的特性,因而需要結合模糊理論來使約略集合理論能處理具有模糊的資料。因此本研究使用模糊約略專家系統方法來探討小樣本簡單因果模型,針對屬於特殊產業的鏈結關係作為研究對象以紙業類為目標,此產業的特色為國內中華徵信所統計2007年前2000大製造業中佔有21家公司的少數樣本群組,本研究資料以專家問卷收集此產業別對於鏈結關係的相關資料,並進行規則建構與分析,其結果僅提供學術界與產業界後續之研究與探討。
In the past when dealing with a simple causal modeling, often used the method of statistical analysis, but this method must face the question of large sample. Therefore, how to find an effectively method to deal with the small sample of simple causal modeling is one of important topics. Recently, many of artificial intelligences are developing very well and closely with the real life, especially the expert systems. The so-called expert system is composing by the knowledge base and the inference engine. The aim is that when we give it a particular field of expertise, it will be able to do like human experts to solve the problems and provide the most appropriate advice, and this method is not restricted to small sample of the request.
Expert System is based on the experience of experts in the fields and inference the conclusion by the relevant conditions. Because of the traditional rough set theory doesn’t have the characterization of fuzzy, so the method needs to combine the fuzzy theory to deal with the data of fuzzy. Hence, in the study uses the fuzzy rough Expert System method to deal with the small sample of simple causal modeling for the papermaking industry’s connectedness. These industries is the small sample of the Top 2000 in making industry, the data is collecting by the expert questionary of connectedness and the result is merely for the academia and industry to reference.
目錄
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌 謝 iii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究方法與內容 3
1.3 本研究各章節之架構 4
1.4 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 約略集合理論 6
2.2 模糊關係和推論 10
2.3 模糊約略集合理論 14
2.4 關係利益、投機行為、衝突對關係鏈結之影響 16
第三章 研究架構設計 21
3.1 研究變數定義 22
3.2 資料統計轉換 24
3.3 模糊約略規則推論 25
3.4 完成模糊約略專家系統 28
第四章 實證分析 29
4.1 資料來源 29
4.2 資料統計轉換 30
4.3 建立模糊專家系統規則庫 31
第五章 結論與建議 37
5.1結論 37
5.2 建議 38
參考文獻 39
英文部分 39
中文部分 42
附錄一、專家問卷 43
英文部分
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中文部分
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王文俊(2003)編著, 認識Fuzzy-第三版, 全華出版.
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