電力系統可靠度的問題涵蓋非常廣泛，本文選擇對電力系統可靠度較具影響的發輸電系統和開關場保護系統進行可靠度評估研究。
本論文對發輸電系統的可靠度評估提出一種結合問題判定和故障樹分析的新方法，此方法的第一個步驟是產生各種偶發事故對輸電系統的影響，然後第二步是將結果歸納分成三類，分別為「正常」、「局部問題」和「系統問題」等三類，第三步驟使用故障樹分析評估輸電系統的可靠度，最後是以風險降低價值重要性指標做為評估各元件對系統可靠度的影響。本文選用台電的輸電系統做範例，採用提出的方法做可靠度評估。
本文同時亦提出模糊故障樹為結合故障樹與不準度觀念的方法用以評估開關場保護系統可靠度。本文以模糊集合表示元件不可用率之不準度，使用故障樹分析結合模糊集合完成可靠度評估。除此之外，元件影響系統可靠度的重要性是以模糊重要性量測指標表示。本文以台電核能三廠的345kV開關場保護系統進行可靠度評估。
本文對發輸電系統和開關場保護系統分別以所提的可靠度評估方法進行模擬和驗證，研究結果顯示方法之適用性，且不僅可以獲得可靠度指標，同時也可得知元件對系統可靠度重要性指標，瞭解系統的弱點及需改善加強的部分，可做為後續可靠度提升及改善之依據。

Reliability of an electric power system is a diverse problem. The reliabilities of a composite system and a protection system for a switchyard are studied in this dissertation because they are important in electric power system.
This dissertation presents a method that integrates deterministic approach with fault-tree analysis for reliability assessment of a composite system (generation and transmission). The contingency screening is conducted in the first step. The results are further classified into three clusters in the second step: normal, local trouble and system trouble. The fault tree analysis is used to assess the reliability of the composite system in the third step. Finally, Risk Reduction Worth is adopted as a measure of importance for identifying the crucial element that has significant impact on the reliability. In this dissertation, a composite system in Taiwan serves as an example for illustrating the simulation results attained by the proposed method.
This dissertation also proposes a method for reliability assessment of the protection system for a switchyard by fault-tree analysis considering uncertainty. Availability of an element with uncertainty is expressed with the fuzzy set. The fault-tree analysis incorporating with the fuzzy set is employed to conduct the reliability assessment. Besides, the importance of elements influencing reliability can be achieved by Fuzzy Importance Measure. A 345kV switchyard in the 3rd nuclear power plant in Taiwan serves as an example for illustrating the results of the proposed method.
The proposed methods for reliability assessment of a composite system and switchyard protection system are verified through simulation. Both reliability indices and importance measure indices for components are attained. These outcomes can help enhance the system reliability.

目錄
摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 VIII
表目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 2
1.3 研究目標與步驟 4
1.4 論文貢獻 5
1.5 論文架構 6
第二章 問題描述 8
2.1 前言 8
2.2 發輸電系統可靠度 9
2.3 開關場保護系統可靠度 14
第三章 可靠度評估 23
3.1 既有評估方法 23
3.2 元件數學模型及可靠度指標 26
3.3 事故存在關係 29
3.3.1 事故並聯關係 29
3.3.2 事故串聯關係 30
3.4 元件重要性分析 31
3.4.1 使用確定量測統計數據之元件重要性 31
3.4.2 使用不確定量測統計數據之元件重要性 34
第四章 故障樹 36
4.1 背景 36
4.2 故障樹分析步驟 38
4.3 布林運算 40
4.4 最小切集 42
4.5 模糊集合 46
第五章 論文所提評估方法 49
5.1 發輸電可靠度評估 49
5.1.1 輸電系統規劃準則 49
5.1.2 所提發輸電系統可靠度評估方法 50
5.1.3 發輸電系統整體故障樹 53
5.1.4 發輸電系統3個次頂端事件 54
5.2 開關場保護系統 56
5.2.1 開關場保護系統描述 56
5.2.2 論文所用開關場保護系統可靠度評估方法 59
5.2.3 開關場保護系統整體故障樹 61
5.2.4 開關場保護系統5個次頂端事件 62
第六章 模擬分析及驗證 68
6.1 台電發輸電系統可靠度評估 68
6.1.1 發輸電系統描述 68
6.1.2 歷史運轉可靠度資料 71
6.1.3 偶發事故篩選結果 72
6.1.4 發輸電系統故障樹分析結果 79
6.1.5 發輸電系統之風險降低價值重要性評估 81
6.2 開關場保護系統可靠度評估 84
6.2.1 元件可靠度資料 84
6.2.2 開關場保護系統故障樹分析結果 86
6.2.2.1 量測統計數據確定之可靠度評估 86
6.2.2.2 量測統計數據不確定之可靠度評估 87
6.2.3 開關場保護系統之風險降低價值重要性評估 89
6.2.4 開關場保護系統之模糊重要性量測評估 91
第七章 結論 95
參考文獻 97

圖目錄
圖2-1 電力系統可靠度評估分層架構 9
圖2-2 RBTS測試系統單線圖 12
圖2-3 RBTS測試系統單線圖(輸電線1事故) 13
圖2-4 雙匯流排1-1/2斷路器架構圖 15
圖2-5 345kV電壓等級氣體斷路器 18
圖2-6 345kV電壓等級匯流排比壓器 18
圖2-7 匯流排保護 20
圖2-8 輸電線保護 20
圖2-9 斷路器失效保護 21
圖2-10 遙控跳脫保護 21
圖2-11 發電機後衛保護 22
圖3-1 液體輸送系統示意圖 23
圖3-2 液體輸送系統可靠度區塊圖 24
圖3-3 液體輸送系統故障樹 24
圖3-4 元件之Two-State模型 27
圖3-5 兩事故事件之並聯關係 30
圖3-6 兩事故事件之串聯關係 31
圖4-1 故障樹分析步驟流程圖 39
圖4-2 較複雜的液體輸送系統故障圖 40
圖4-3 化簡最小切集範例之故障樹 43
圖4-4 模糊集合三角形歸屬函數圖 47
圖4-5 三角形歸屬函數α-切集 47
圖5-1 論文所提發輸電系統可靠度評估流程 52
圖5-2 無法符合N-1和N-2準則之故障樹 54
圖5-3 無法符合N-1準則之故障樹 55
圖5-4 無法符合N-2(LL)準則之故障樹 55
圖5-5 無法符合N-2(GL)準則之故障樹 56
圖5-6 開關場架構圖 57
圖5-7 故障樹用於開關場保護系統可靠度評估流程 60
圖5-8 模糊故障樹用於開關場保護系統可靠度評估流程 60
圖5-9 開關場保護系統失效之故障樹 61
圖5-10 匯流排保護系統失效之故障樹 63
圖5-11 輸電線保護系統失效之故障樹 64
圖5-12 斷路器失效保護系統失效之故障樹 65
圖5-13 發電機後衛保護系統失效之故障樹 66
圖5-14 遙控跳脫保護系統失效之故障樹 67
圖6-1 台電電力系統架構圖 69
圖6-2 六輸規劃的台電345kV發輸電系統 70
圖6-3 台東地區161kV輸電架構示意圖 82

表目錄
表2-1 匯流排佈置方式 14
表3-1 液體輸送系統狀態列表 25
表4-1 故障樹分析結果分類 37
表6-1 發電機組的事故統計資料 72
表6-2 輸電線的事故統計資料 72
表6-3 N-1偶發事故篩選結果 73
表6-4 N-2偶發事故篩選結果 73
表6-5 N-1偶發事故影響系統列表 75
表6-6 N-2(LL)偶發事故影響系統列表 77
表6-7 N-2(GL)偶發事故影響系統列表 79
表6-8 發輸電系統可靠度評估(論文提出的方法) 80
表6-9 發輸電系統可靠度評估(TPLAN軟體驗證) 80
表6-10無法符合N-1準則次頂端事件的風險降低價值重要性 83
表6-11無法符合N-2(LL)準則次頂端事件的風險降低價值重要性 83
表6-12無法符合N-2(GL)準則次頂端事件的風險降低價值重要性 84
表6-13發輸電系統頂端事件的風險降低價值重要性 84
表6-14開關場事故事件之不可用率 85
表6-15開關場保護系統可靠度評估(故障樹) 86
表6-16開關場保護系統可靠度評估(模糊故障樹) 88
表6-17開關場保護系統可靠度評估(蒙地卡羅模擬法驗證) 88
表6-18匯流排保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 89
表6-19輸電線保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 89
表6-20斷路器失效保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 90
表6-21發電機後衛保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 90
表6-22遙控跳脫保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 90
表6-23開關場保護功能之風險降低價值重要性指標 91
表6-24匯流排保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 92
表6-25輸電線保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 92
表6-26斷路器失效保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 93
表6-27發電機後衛保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 93
表6-28遙控跳脫保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 93
表6-29開關場保護功能之模糊重要性量測指標 94

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