本研究採用ordered probit及ordered logit模型，研究中華貨幣單一化及貨幣危機的關係。研究導入早期預警系統(EWS)及重要經濟變數，探討何種EWS預測效力最佳及重要影響變數。研究顯示，實質匯率及物價指數變動在ordered probit模型下與貨幣危機呈顯著相關，而在ordered logit模型下則以實質匯率及消費者物價指數變動表現最佳。在觀察邊際效果之後，可以發現華元區域需維持較高的實質利率以吸引資金流入並抵抗投機性攻擊行為。除Edison模型之外，在ERW及KLR模型中顯示，在積極促進經濟成長的同時必須振興股市變動以避免過熱才能有效降低貨幣危機發生的可能性。在預測能力的比較上，CCU中心匯率在ordered probit模型下擁有較高的預測正確度，另外在門檻值Y=1的檢定上，CCU中心匯率也同樣擁有較佳的表現。結果顯示，採用CCU中心匯率能有效預測並降低貨幣危機發生的可能性。

This study deals with the currency crisis and Chinese currency unification (CCU) using ordered probit model and ordered logit model to compare the accuracy of three different early warning systems (EWS) and analyze key factors. The empirical results show that real exchange rate and CPI change are the most significant variables in ordered probit model, while real exchange rate and CPI change performed significant effect to currency crisis in ordered logit model. Real interest rate is significant in influencing currency crisis occurrence revealing a greater marginal effect in CCU regime. It represents that CCU members should maintain a higher real interest rate to attack capital inflow and defense speculative attack. By excluding Edison method, policy maker should stimulate stock market to avoid overheating and stabilize GDP growth to alleviate crisis impact on CCU regime by observing marginal effect. Generally speaking, the predicting accuracy of CCU regime is higher than specific exchange rate in ordered probit model. The reliability of threshold Y=1 also represents that CCU regime is an affordable economic system for defencing currency crisis.

摘要 I
Abstract II
Index III
Table List IV
Figure List V
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Research background and motivation 1
1.2 Research goal 3
1.3 Research flow path 4
Chapter 2. Literature review 5
2.1. Regional currencies integration 5
2.1.1. The background of Euro 5
2.1.2. ACU formation 6
2.1.3. CCU establishment 8
2.2 Currency crises 9
2.2.1. Inconsistent economic policy 10
2.2.2. Self-fulfilling 10
2.2.3 Contagion effect 11
2.3 Early Warning System 12
Chapter 3. Empirical methodology 14
3.1 Measuring Exchange Market Pressure Index (EMP) 14
3.2 CCU calculation 16
3.3 Ordered Probit and Ordered Logit Model 17
3.4 Marginal Effect 19
3.5 Variable description 20
Chapter 4. Empirical Results 23
4.1 Data Resource 23
4.2 Results Analysis 23
Chapter 5. Conclusion and Suggestion 40
5.1 Conclusion 40
5.2 Contribution 41
5.3 Limitation 41
5.4 Suggestion 42
Reference 43

Table List
Table 4-1 panel (a) Statistic analysis for selected macroeconomic factors from 1992 to 2007 25
Table 4-1 panel (b) Statistic analysis for selected macroeconomic factors from 1992 to 1996 25
Table 4-1 panel (c) Statistic analysis for selected macroeconomic factors from 1997-2007 26
Table 4-1 panel (d) Compare the mean of selected variables Pre-crisis (1992 to 1996) and Post-crisis (1997-2007) 26
Table 4-1 panel (e) T-test for the mean of selected variables Pre-crisis (1992 to 1996) and Post-crisis (1997-2007) 27
Table 4-2 panel (a). Test Results: ordered probit models 31
Table 4-2 panel (b). Test Results: ordered logit models 32
Table 4-3 panel (a) Marginal effect in ordered probit mode 35
Table 4-3 panel (b) Marginal effect in ordered logit model 36
Table 4-4 panel (a) Predicting accuracy in ordered probit model 38
Table 4-4 panel (b) Predicting accuracy in ordered logit model 38
Table 4-4 panel (c) Threshold test in ordered probit model 39
Table 4-4 panel (d) Threshold test in ordered logit model 39

Figure List
Figure 1-1. Research flow path 4
Figure 3-1. Effects of Change in x on Predicted Probabilities 19

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