臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　近來金融海嘯狂襲全世界，美國房市泡沫導致衍生性金融產品問題重重，恐慌氣氛蔓延，整個金融鏈出現問題進而影響投資人心理恐慌，台灣多國籍企業經營上當然無法於此海嘯中置之度外，不論企業運用衍生性金融商品避險、所占外銷比率，公司皆面臨匯率暴露風險。出口下降將導致出口企業倒閉，失業率上升，台灣許多貿易公司、進出口公司都與銀行有借貸關係，多國籍企業當然不例外，此時此刻金融機構負擔沉重企業經營亦困窘。

　　本文針對台灣多國籍企業檢視其匯率變動與股價關係及其產業分布議題加以探討。樣本選取台灣69家上市多國籍企業為研究對象，研究期間為2002年5月至2009年3月共計7年10個月。

　　一、研究結果證實:
　　外匯暴露係數(外匯變動)與台灣多國籍企業價值(即公司股價)相關性為正向僅占約7%，此結果表示僅約7%台幣相對於美元貶值之時有利於出口，因此對企業或產業而言是有益處的。相關性為負向占約93%，換言之台幣對美元貶值，對台灣上市多國籍企業的股價不利，相對的公司的股價報酬率降低。此外亦證實海島型國家的台灣，多國籍企業採取的外匯避險策略是值得深入探討，因此匯率風險控管對企業主而言是不可忽視的。企業主如能了解此議題之相關性，於此時此刻景氣蕭條年代將可幫企業規避一筆匯兌損失甚至賺取一筆匯兌收益。


　　二、研究建議:
　　本研究證實外匯暴露係數(外匯變動率)與台灣多國籍企業價值(即公司股價)為正相關僅占約7%。因此企業主如能謹慎控管匯率風險，當匯率波動幅度大時將可為企業規避匯兌風險。此外企業主如能熟悉影響匯率的因素與指標增進對匯率變動敏感度並採取外匯避險策略將有助穩定企業價值(即公司股價)。

　　Recently the financial tsunami raids the world crazily. The American housing market froth causes the derivative financial product many questions, the panic atmosphere spread, and the entire financial chain has the question then influence investor psychology to be panic. The Taiwan multi-nationality enterprise manages is certainly unable to disregard from this tsunami. No matter the enterprise takes refuge from danger using the derivative financial commodity, accounts for sale abroad ratio, the company all faces the exchange rate exposition risk.

This article aim at Taiwan multi-nationality enterprise to discuss the subjects about inspects its exchange rate change and the stock price relations and the industrial distribution. The sample selected Taiwan 69 multi-nationality enterprises which enter the stock market as the object of study. The research period is from May 2002 to March 2009, total 7 years and 10 months.

　　1. Finding confirmation
　　The foreign exchange exposition coefficient (foreign exchange change) and Taiwan multi-nationality enterprise value (i.e. company stock price) is the relevance for forward only accounts for approximately 7%, this result expressed the approximately 7% NT dollar are only opposite in US dollar depreciation when is advantageous in the export, therefore speaking of the enterprise or the industry has the profit. The relevance for negative accounts for approximately 93%, in other words, the dollar to US dollar depreciation, goes on the market the multi-nationality enterprise''s stock price to Taiwan to be disadvantageous, the relative company''s stock price return rate reduces. In addition also confirmed island country''s Taiwan, the multi-nationality enterprise adopts the foreign exchange takes refuge from danger the strategy to be worth discussing thoroughly, therefore the exchange rate risk control speaking of the business owner is noticeable. The business owner like can understand that relevance of this subject, might help the enterprise at this moment in the booming bleak age to dodge an exchange loss even to earn a remittance income.

　　2. Research suggestion
　　This research confirmation foreign exchange exposition coefficient (foreign exchange mobility rate) is being related with Taiwan multi-nationality enterprise value(i.e. company stock price) only accounts for approximately 7%. Therefore the business owner like can control the exchange rate risk discretely, when the foreign exchange fluctuation scope is big might dodge the exchange risk for the enterprise. In addition the business owner like can affect the exchange rate familiar the factor and the target promotes to the exchange rate change sensitivity and adopts the foreign exchange to take refuge from danger the strategy to be helpful the stable enterprise value (i.e. company stock price).

中文摘要..............................................................................................i
英文摘要............................................................................................iii
目錄.....................................................................................................v
圖目錄...............................................................................................vii
表目錄..............................................................................................viii

第一章 緒論........................................................................................1
第一節 　研究背景與目的................................................................1
第二節 　研究動機............................................................................2
第三節 　研究架構............................................................................3
第二章 文獻回顧................................................................................5
第一節 　多國籍相關理論................................................................5
第二節 　匯率暴露理論與規避方法................................................9
第三節 　匯率暴露影響因素之探討..............................................18
第四節 　外匯避險策略..................................................................24
第五節 　多國籍企業外匯曝露的決定因素..................................26
第六節 　匯率變動對公司價值的影響之衡量..............................28
第七節 　外匯暴露之不對稱性效果..............................................31
第八節 　外匯暴露之遞延效果......................................................33
第三章 研究方法..............................................................................37
第一節 　研究步驟..........................................................................37
第二節 　資料蒐集來源與研究樣本..............................................38
第三節 　研究假設..........................................................................40
第四章 研究結果與分析..................................................................42
第一節 　匯率變動與台灣多國籍企業股價關係..........................42
第二節 　外匯暴露係數之產業別分布..........................................46
第五章 結論......................................................................................50
第一節 　研究結論..........................................................................50
第二節 　研究建議..........................................................................51
參考文獻...........................................................................................52
中文部份...........................................................................................52
英文部份...........................................................................................53
附錄...................................................................................................56

中文部份
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