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研究生:蔡婉娸
研究生(外文):Wan-Chi Tsai
論文名稱:跨國企業多階段投資決策分析
論文名稱(外文):Analysis of multinational enterprise’ multi-period investment decision-making
指導教授:姜一銘姜一銘引用關係
指導教授(外文):I-Ming Jiang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:玄奘大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:97
中文關鍵詞:實質選擇權多階段投資跨國企業
外文關鍵詞:Real OptionMulti-period InvestmentMultinational Corporations
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本論文的目的是希望從動態的角度來探討個別跨國企業進入市場策略之最佳選擇形式,對於多國籍企業而言,投資決策存在有不確定性、不可逆性和營運策略彈性價值,因此,當進一步去觀察擴張或放棄國際合資企業的最佳投資時點問題時,並非有完全一致性的結論。在大多數的情況之下,初次的進入市場策略提供一個平台,讓該跨國企業利用其地主國的優勢和能力來做之後的投資。本論文中我們考慮採取一個三步驟的擴張或放棄策略,在連續時間模型設定過程下,外國直接投資的價値可以被當成是一個複雜選擇者選擇權。結果發現:當由出口轉變成為外國直接投資承諾的第一階段時,不確定性、所購買之普通股規模(數量)和未來的投資/撤資機會,就建立其重要性。事實上,我們強調市場進入動態模型,並且應用實質選擇權的方法,提供跨國企業一個封閉型式解。總結來說,各項因子的變動對於選擇權的價値有增有減,因而影響跨國企業對於後續購併或撤資決策之影響,所以本文之模型可以提供企業一個依據,並以所計算出的購併/撤資之價値最大化來做為後續投資決策的參考,以創造出對企業本身最佳的價値。
The purpose of this study is to formalize the optimal choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. In multinational enterprises with the investment decision-making related to uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility, it can provide us with further expansion to observe or to give up international joint ventures the best point in time this point is controversial. In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities.Therefore, in this study, we consider the expansion of a three-step strategy, and in the continuous-time model, the price of foreign direct investment could be worth as a complex chooser option. The results show that uncertainty, size of equity share (number) and future investment/divestment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment. We emphasize the dynamic model of market entry of the importance and application of real option approach to provide a closed-form solution.When the factors change, the option value can increases/decreases, thereby affecting the follow-up to multinational corporations for the acquisition/divestment of the impact of the decision-making. The model can provide a basis for enterprises, and calculated according to the Acquisitions/divestments of the price to maximize the value of follow-up to make investment decisions for the reference to the enterprise itself to create the best value price.
目錄
摘要……………………………………………………………………...…i
ABSTRACT……………………………………………...…………………ii目錄…………………………………………………………………….….iii
表目錄………………………………………………………………….…..v
圖目錄………………………………………………………….………….vi
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………….1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………2
第二節 研究架構……………………………………………………..4
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………….6
第一節 資金預算決策之意義與決策方法…………………………..6
第二節 實質選擇權…………………………………………………12
第三節 國際合資之定義與類型……………………………………16
第四節 合資之動態模式……………………………………………21
第五節 合資之優缺點………………………………………………22
第六節 國際合資的理論基礎………………………………………23
第七節 購併相關文獻探討…………………………………………28
第三章 理論模型………………………………………………………...38
第一節 選擇權理論模型……………………………………………38
第二節 介紹實質選擇權理論…………………………………….48
第三節 跨國企業多階段投資決策分析模型………………………53
第四章 敏感性分析……………………………………………………...64
第五章 結論與未來研究方向…………………………………………...79
第一節 結論…………………………………………………………79
第二節 未來研究方向………………………………………………82
參考文獻…………………………………………………………….........84
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