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研究生:陳虹汎
研究生(外文):Hong-fan Chen
論文名稱:波高極值統計之季節性變化
論文名稱(外文):Seasonal variation of extreme statistics of wave heights
指導教授:林西川
指導教授(外文):Si-chuan Lin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:水利及海洋工程學系碩博士班
學門:工程學門
學類:河海工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:41
中文關鍵詞:季節性變化波高極值統計
外文關鍵詞:Extreme statisticsSeasonal variationWave heights
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:174
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  • 下載下載:28
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
  本文提出一個考慮季節性影響,表現出波高極值分佈之長期特性的極值統計方法。統計模式的樣本分別以年最大法和月最大法建立,並應用花蓮港浮標資料進行分析。
分析結果顯示,花蓮港極值波高的推估以三參數Weibull分佈、LSM參數推估法、形狀參數為1.4時,有較佳之模式配適結果。極值分佈函數之參數,考慮年週期與半年週期的季節性變化時,推估所得之年最大極值波高較傳統年最大法所推估之年最大極值波高為小;往昔利用傳統年最大法所推估之設計波高可能有超設計現象。本文所提之方法,可應用於推估海岸工程長期重現期之極值波高。
This paper presents a statistical method to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of wave heights, conditioning to seasonal effect. Two time-dependent versions of Annual Maxima method and Monthly Maxima method approach are used to build the statistical sample, which is applied to specific reanalysis time series and Hualien buoy records.
The model obtains better fitted result, which is a method of shape parameter 1.4 with LSM of Weibull distribution, from extreme wave heights of the Hualien. The parameters of extreme distribution function consider seasonal variation with the annual and semiannual cycles. According to extreme wave heights method, the wave heights of traditional Annual Maxima method are smaller than Monthly Maxima method. It results in overdesign wave height by means of using traditional Annual Maxima method. The information obtained in this study can be useful to long-term return values in coastal engineering, because the method improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year.
中文摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
符號說明 IX
第一章 緒論 1
1-1研究緣起與目的 1
1-2文獻回顧 1
1-3本文組織 3
第二章 極值統計理論 4
2-1極值資料之選取方式 4
2-2極值分佈函數 4
2-3極值分佈參數之推定法 6
2-3.1力矩法(MOM) 6
2-3.2最大概似法(MLE) 7
2-3.3最小二乘法(LSM) 8
2-4信賴檢定評估 10
第三章 資料分析 12
3-1資料選取及補遺 12
3-2箱型圖分析決定取樣資料 12
3-3重現期的極值波高估算 17
第四章 結果討論 18
4-1最佳極值統計方法之決定 18
4-2參數迴歸 30
4-3考慮參數迴歸的重現期極值波高估算 32
4-4年最大法與月最大法季節性波高變化 34
第五章 結論 37
參考文獻 38
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