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研究生:薄世達
研究生(外文):Paul-Robert Pestal
論文名稱:Sugar and Ethanol: The Elusive Quest for Free Trade
論文名稱(外文):Sugar and Ethanol: The Elusive Quest for Free Trade
指導教授:謝文真謝文真引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wen-Jen Hsieh
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:國際管理碩士在職專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:97
語文別:英文
論文頁數:162
外文關鍵詞:Sugar Protectionist PoliciesCane SugarBeet SugarEthanol ConversionEthanol SubsidiesEthanol FuelSugar
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With sugar being a part of the human diet all over the world (per capita consumption is up to 60 kg pa in some regions, global average is approximately 25 kg pa), it is one of the key agricultural commodities. Total market quantities will increase from present (2005) 140 million metric tons to 170 million metric tons in 2015. The technical option of converting sugar crops into fuel is believed to fit into the global mega trend of reducing pollution and easing the dependency on mineral oil.
This paper deals with the economic aspect of sugar crops and the processing to sugar or fuel. Due to the dual channels of processing to food on one hand and fuel on the other, the market can absorb almost any quantity of both cane and beet. The “ethanol track” will be addressed in this paper; also from the perspective of corn.
National and regional interventions have a long tradition in many agricultural segments. Once implemented, they are sticking as persistent as taxes intended temporarily upon their implementation. Sugar and ethanol related segments are classical cases. And it is not clear whether pure economics are really the solution.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS …………………………………………………………………...IV
ABSTRACT ………………………………………………………………………………….V
TABLE OF CONTENTS ……………………………………………………………………VI
LIST OF TABLES …………………………………………………………………………..IX
LIST OF FIGURES ………………………………………………………………………….XI
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………….. 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation ……………………………………………… 1
1.2 Problem Formulation ………………………………………………………………. 5
1.3 Assumptions /Objective ……………………………………..................................... 6
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW………….. ………………………………... 8
2.1 Overview Sugar and Ethanol ……………………………………………................. 8
2.1.1 Agriculture. Production Process ………………………………………………. 8
2.1.2 World Production and Consumption ………………………………………….. 14
2.1.3 World Trade Flows ……………………………………………………………. 19
2.1.4 The Link between Sugar and Ethanol …………………………………………. 20
2.1.5 Options for the Ethanol Production …………………………………………… 27
2.1.6 Ethanol Market basics…………………………………………………………. 30
2.2 Case History Brazil. Sugar and Ethanol ………………………................. ……….. 31
2.3 Case History USA. Ethanol and Corn ………………………………....................... 41
2.4 Hypothesis …………………………………………………………………............. 52
2.5 Hypothesis Testing Executive Summary………………………………................. 52
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY............................ 54
3.1 Research Design …………………………………………………………………… 54
3.2 Methodology …………………………………………………………………..…… 55
3.3 Base Case Snap Shot ……………………………………………………………….. 58
3.4 Model Outline ………………………………………………………………………. 63
3.4.1 US Ethanol Model. Ethanol Demand …………………………… …………… 64
3.4.2 US Ethanol Model. Ethanol Supply …………………………………………… 67
3.4.3 Inventory Demand. Trade …………………………………………………….. 69
3.4.4 Brazil Ethanol Model. Ethanol Demand ……………………………………… 70
3.4.5 Brazil Ethanol Model. Ethanol Supply ………………………………………… 71
3.4.6 Inventory Demand. Trade ……………………………………………………… 72
3.5 Data and Calculation …….. ……………………………………………………….. 72
3.5.1 Gasoline Price Shock …………………………………………………………… 74
3.5.2 Corn Price Shock ……………………………………………………………….. 77
3.5.3 Sugar Price Shock ………………………………………………………………. 78
3.6 Interpretation …………………………………………………………………..……. 79
CHAPTER FOUR: SUBSIDIES AND TARIFFS. WHO CARES? ……………………… 83
4.1 Welfare Concerns and Deadweight Loss …………………………………………… 84
4.1.1 Background …………………………………..……………………………………84
4.1.2 Facts and Theory …………………………………………………………………..86
4.1.3 Model and Calculation …………………………………………………………….89
4.1.4 Interpretation ………………………………………………………………………93
4.2 Publicity and Reality …………………………………………………………………..96
4.3 Common Bunkum ……………………………………………………………………..99
4.3.1 The Good and the Bad ………………………………………………………….. 99
4.3.2. The Victim #1. LDC ……………………………………………………………. 102
4.3.3 The Victim #2. Rural Households ………………………………………………. 107
4.3.4 Out of the Pocket. Back into the Pocket ………………………………………… 108
4.4 The Free Trade Dream Lives on ……………………………………………………. 109
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS ……………………………………............................ 112
5.1 Sustainability … …………………………………………………………………….. 112
5.2 Upcoming Technologies Referring to Ethanol ………………………………..…….. 120
5.3 Essay: Food for the Tank ……………………………………………………………. 123
APPENDIX …….…………………………………………………………………………. 133
App-1 Terminology …………………………………………………………………….. 133
App-2 Alternative Sweeteners …………………. ………………………………..…….. 138
App-3 Sugar Trade ………. …………………………………………………………….. 142
App-4 Dimensions of Agriculture and Energy …………………………………………. 147
App-4.1 Agriculture and Grain ……………………………………………………….. 147
App-4.2 Energy ……………………………………………………………………….. 149
App-5 Sugar History ……. …………………………………………………………….. 152
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………. 156
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