臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

This study applies regression analysis to macroeconomic factors involving how inbound visitors affect Taiwan's retail trade turnover. The purpose of the study is to research whether increasing numbers of inbound visitors could benefit national consumption. The study period is from January, 2001, to August, 2007 (a total of eighty months), for which secondary data was collected from the TEJ Database. The factors studied include inbound visitors, the Taiwan stock index, Exchange Rate, CPI, Taiwan credit loan amounts, and Taiwan credit card payment amounts.
The study results indicate that the Taiwan stock index has a significant and positive relationship with Taiwan’s retail trade turnover, while the exchange rate was negatively related to increase retail trade turnover, consumers are therefore encouraged to use credit or debit cards. This is more powerful than encouraging people to increase consumption through the use of loans. The inbound visitor factor to retail trade turnover was not significant in the same period, but in the Granger Causality test, inbound visitors lead retail trade turnover in one period. This result implies that if the number of inbound visitors increases, the lag period will reflect this factor. In Taiwan, as the manufacturing industry structure transfers to the financial services industry, an increase in inbound visitors affects the increase in national consumption. There are still some business items that are not allowed in the Taiwan tourism industry (ex: casino, horse racing). If the government relaxes tourism regulations, and sets up a greater tourism industry infrastructure to attract more inbound visitors to Taiwan, the “inbound visitors” factor will become more powerful, thus able to impact retail trade turnover.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................... I
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. II
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. IV
LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... VI
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1
1.1 Research Background. ..................................................................................... 1
1.2 Research Motivations. ...................................................................................... 2
1.3 The Purpose and Scope of the Study. ............................................................... 3
1.4 Structure of the Research. ................................................................................ 3
1.5 Research Flow. ................................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 5
2.1 Exchange Rate Theory and Literature. ............................................................ 5
2.1.1 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP Theory). .............................................. 5
2.1.2 Exchange Rate Literature. ..................................................................... 5
2.2 Stock Evaluation Theory and Literature. ......................................................... 8
2.3 Tourism Literature. ......................................................................................... 12
2.4 Retail Literature. ............................................................................................ 17
2.5 Other Literature or News Reports. ................................................................. 20
CHAPTER THREE VARIABLE INDICES, TOURISM VISION, AND THE
RETAIL INDUSTRY .................................................................................................. 21
3.1 The Introduction of the Variance Indices. ...................................................... 21
3.2 The Tourism Vision in Taiwan. ...................................................................... 25
3.3 Classification of Retail Industry and Developing Processes in Taiwan. ........ 31
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHOD ................................................................ 38
4.1 Detection of Multicollinearity. ....................................................................... 38
4.2 Significant Test............................................................................................... 39
4.3 Detection of Heteroscedasticity. .................................................................... 39
4.4 Detection of Autocorrelation. ......................................................................... 40
4.5 Ordinary Least Square, OLS. ......................................................................... 41
4.6 Empirical Econometric Model ....................................................................... 41
4.7 Granger Causality Test. .................................................................................. 44
CHAPTER FIVE RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ................................... 45
5.1 The Empirical Research of Taiwan's Retail Trade Turnover. ........................ 45
5.2 Nested Hypothesis. ........................................................................................ 46
5.3 Detection of Heteroscedasticity. .................................................................... 47
5.4 Detection of Autocorrelations. ....................................................................... 48
5.5 Empirical Multiple Regression Model of Taiwan's Retail Trade Turnover... 48
5.6 Granger Causality Test ................................................................................... 49
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION ............................................. 51
6.1 Conclusion and Implications from the Result of Taiwan Retail Trade Turnover ................................................................................ 51
6.2 Research Limitation. ...................................................................................... 55
6.3 Other Findings and Suggestions. ................................................................... 56
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 57

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