當一間公司或組織具備有較佳的軟體開發能力而能夠承接大型與複雜專案時，有效控制與預估專案或軟體開發的成本成為一項重要的課題。為了能夠準確的預估成本，就需要一個有效的成本預估模型來幫助公司或組織能夠準確的預估專案或軟體的成本(cost)與工作量(effort)。這部分在台灣，目前沒有一個有效而普通被採用的成本預估模型。
成本預估模型的建立，主要是得仰賴軟體的大小度量(sizing)與成本因子(cost drivers)。然而，成本因子一般是由經驗來決定的，而成本因子決定的方式與權重，必定還是得仰賴歷史資料來決定。在開發專案的過程中，會依循著一些軟體開發方法或軟體發展流程。元件化的開發方法是一種具備程序化的軟體開發，為現今的主流；螺旋發展流程在大型的專案上，有助於減低開發風險。不同的發展流程與開發方法對專案開發有一定的影響，該專案所收集到的資料也會有所差異，進而影響到成本預估模型的結果與精確度。本論文提出基於COCOMO II之傳統(瀑布式)與以WINWIN螺旋模型為基礎之元件化成本預估模型。在研究傳統元件化成本預估模型的過程當中，利用台灣某公司的專案資料驗證，為COCOMO II成本預估模型加入新的成本因子；在WINWIN螺旋模型上，加入里程碑目標與對應的成本預估。這些改進的過程方法，改進了成本預估模型，有助於增進元件化開發成本預估的準確性。研究成果亦有助於未來更進一步軟體開發成本預估模型之建立。

In software engineering research area, cost estimation is one of the most important issues. Constructive cost estimation model can predict the cost and effort accurately, and benefits a company to develop a large project. In Taiwan software industries, cost estimation models haven't been created. Establishment of a cost model depends on the software sizing and cost drivers. However, the cost drivers of the cost model rely on experience. When developing a new project, the programers may follow the software development process and the software development method, such as sprial development process and component-based development method. A new development-model-based project estimation data would differ from the historical data using old development processes or development methods.
Therefore, in this thesis, we present the reference about the weights of the cost drivers that are derived from the historical data, and also present the proposed software development process and the proposed cost estimation model combined with component-based development method. Appropriate software sizing or cost drivers can be applied to increase the accuracy of the software cost prediction, and proper process action can be applied to aid the project development in the development process. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed predication model, a survey was also conducted using the project data from a private company in Taiwan.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 論文架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 軟體成本估計方法 5
2.2 軟體大小度量方法 12
2.3 成本模型 17
2.4 成本預估模型的效能測量 32
2.5 軟體發展流程 38
2.6 元件化開發方法 46
第三章 元件化軟體成本預估模型 49
3.1 基於COCOMO II之傳統(瀑布式)元件化軟體開發成本預估 51
3.2 以WINWIN螺旋模型為基礎之元件化發展成本預估 67
第四章 實例探討 95
4.1 初期估計 95
4.2 元件化開發因子之建立 101
第五章 結論與未來工作 118
5.1 結論 118
5.2 未來工作 120
參考文獻 121
附錄A Use Case Point加權值對應表 124
附錄B 問卷 125

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