臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究藉由克利金法與交叉驗證法評估空氣品質監測站之空間代表性，以民國88∼97年監測資料區間，北部、竹苗、中部、雲嘉南及高屏共51個一般空氣品質監測站，進行污染物濃度資料統計分析。藉由分析監測數據空間代表性、居民數目指標代表性、超標頻率代表性及排放量代表性等四項指標，決定個別測站相對價值，篩選出代表性較低之ㄧ般監測站，試算精簡部分代表性較低之監測站前後，空品區PSI指標、PM10濃度及三級防制區劃分影響。
研究顯示，以半變異圖分析台灣地區ㄧ般監測站於懸浮微粒監測之空間代表性範圍可達22公里，代表面積約1500公里，依台灣國土面積估算，至少須設置26個一般測站。都市及鄉村地區一般監測站空間代表性偏低站數比例分別為36%與11%，顯示都市地區設置一般監測站過於密集；北部、中部及南部分區探討顯示，中部地區一般監測站空間代表性較高，北部及南部地區代表性較低。居民數目指標代表性分析顯示，中部空品區設站密度最低，宜蘭空品區設站密度最高。超標頻率代表性分析顯示，懸浮微粒超標日數由北往南遞增，南北超標比例差異性相當高。排放量代表性分析顯示鄉村地區PM10人均排放量為都市地區的7倍。
監測站屬性調整前後各空品區PSI>100指標變化以高屏空品區差異最高，民國97年度為例，PSI>100比例由2.5%降至調整後1.8%，顯示監測站屬性及設置位置對空氣品質監測數據分析影響甚大；監測站精簡前後PSI>100比例變化幅度不大，顯示部分測站監測資料重複性過高。
民國97年PM10日平均濃度盒形圖案例分析顯示，西部五大空品區於監測站屬性調整前後及監測站精簡後，95%的監測數據皆無顯著差異性，顯示撤站調整後，剩餘監測站亦能提供一般監測所需監測數據，不影響各空品區之懸浮微粒污染數據解析。
以民國96及97年監測資料為基準，全國十四縣(市)經劃分為三級防制區，本研究案例分析，此十四縣(市)於監測站屬性調整前後及撤站調整後，仍皆為不符合空氣品質標準區域，顯示本研究以空間代表性檢視調整測站不影響現階段之空氣污染防制區判定。
關鍵字：克利金、監測站、懸浮微粒

The study investigated the representativeness of air quality monitoring stations using the kriging method and cross-validation. The mass concentrations of PM10 matter are collected from the 51 air quality monitoring stations in west Taiwan from 1999 to 2008. Spatial representativeness, population representativeness, occurrence of non-compliance, and emission per capita were selected as the indicator to screen out the low representative stations as unnecessary station. Operation of the least-representative stations among the total of 51 are assumed terminated, to analyze the influence of the least-representative stations on pollution standard index (PSI), PM10 concentration, and classification of third-level control region.
The result of semivariogram analysis shows that the effective range of the ordinary air quality monitoring stations in this study is about 22km. This result implied that the demand of air quality monitoring stations is more than 26 stations in Taiwan. The percentages of the low representative stations were 36% and 11% for urban and suburban area, respectively. It implied that the station density was high in urban area. Moreover, the stations’ representative in central Taiwan was higher than those in northern and southern Taiwan.
The result of population representativeness indicates that the station density was lowest in central air basin and was highest in Yilan air basin among the seven air basin in Taiwan. For occurrence of non-compliance, the exceedance days of PM10 over standard increased from the northern to southern Taiwan. The difference of occurrence between the north and south areas in Taiwan was large. Emission analysis implied that the emission per capita was seven times higher in suburban than urban area.
Assuming termination of the least representative station among the current 51, the exceedance of PSI > 100 in Kaoping air basin shows significant decreased from 2.5% to 1.8%. However, there is no significant change of PSI exceedance for other air basins. This result implies the monitoring data of the air quality monitoring station are redundant in areas other than Kaoping air basin.
The analyze of mean PM10 daily concentration of 2008 after assuming no-operation for some low representative stations showed that the 95% of air quality monitoring data correspond to no significant change in the 95% confidence interval. This result implies the data from the remaining monitoring stations will remain representative in case the low representative stations stop operation. The data also showed that there is no influence on classification of secondary and third-level control region.
Keyword：kriging, cross-validation, semivariogram, monitoring

目錄 I
表目錄 III
圖目錄 V
第一章 前言
1-1研究緣起 1-1
1-2研究目的 1-3
第二章 文獻回顧
2-1空氣品質監測站設置目的 2-1
2-2空氣品質監測站設置數目與方法 2-9
2-3空氣品質監測站設置代表性 2-15
2-4國內空氣品質監測系統 2-23
第三章 研究方法
3-1研究流程 3-1
3-2研究資料 3-3
3-3資料解析 3-7
第四章 結果與討論
4-1普通監測站屬性分析及調整 4-1
4-1-1設置位址及鄰近污染源分析 4-1
4-1-2調整測站之案例分析 4-11
4-2一般監測站監測數據空間代表性分析 4-20
4-2-1年平均濃度之交叉驗證分析 4-20
4-2-2日平均第八高值之交叉驗證分析 4-28
4-2-3日平均及年平均之空間代表性差異分析 4-36
4-3ㄧ般監測站代表性指標分析 4-40
4-3-1居民數目指標代表性分析 4-40
4-3-2超標頻率代表性分析 4-43
4-3-3排放量代表性分析 4-45
4-3-4測站調整 4-51
4-4空氣品質指標分析 4-57
4-4-1一般監測站調整之超標比例變化 4-57
4-4-2懸浮微粒濃度分佈 4-59
4-4-3空氣污染防制區劃分影響分析 4-64
第五章 結論與建議
5-1結論 5-1
5-2建議 5-3
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