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研究生:林峻陞
研究生(外文):Jyun-Sheng Lin
論文名稱:2×2列聯表邊際同質性之改良概似比檢定
論文名稱(外文):Improved likelihood ratio tests for testing marginal homogeneity in 2 × 2 contingency tables
指導教授:楊明宗楊明宗引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ming-Chung Yang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:統計研究所
學門:數學及統計學門
學類:統計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:54
中文關鍵詞:多項分佈概似比檢定型一誤差正確非條件法二元配對資料
外文關鍵詞:likelihood ratio testmultinomial distributionbinary matched-pairs dataexact unconditional testexact size
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本文考慮二元反應配對資料的邊際機率單尾檢定問題,使用正確非條件檢定方法與概似比檢定統計量建構出概似比p-值,由於概似比p-值檢定在中小樣本下具有保守性,所以考慮在給定信賴係數為1- 的概似比信賴區間p-值,但是選擇最佳的 並無一個準則,且在概似比p-值及概似比信賴區間p-值互有優劣的的狀況下,我們進而嘗試再一次極大化求取修正信賴區間p-值並經由數值計算比較此三種檢定方法的真正型一誤差,探討其改良狀況。數值分析顯示,修正的信賴區間 p-值與三種 的選擇無關,且除了在某些樣本點的真正型一誤差跟概似比p-值或概似比信賴區間p-值相同外,在某些中大樣本數之下亦能有效的改善真正型一誤差,即更靠近指定的名目水準。
This paper considers one-sided hypotheses for testing the marginal homogeneity in a binary matched-pairs design. First we use the exact unconditional tests based on the likelihood ratio statistic to obtain the p-value. The likelihood ratio p-value may be very conservative if the sample sizes are small or moderate. Alternatively, we consider the confidence interval p-value with the specified confidence coefficient, which was derived by Berger and Sidik (2003). But numerical calculations are not give a strong evidence to show that the confidence interval p-value is better than the likelihood ratio p-value for any case. On the other hand, the performance of confidence interval p-value is highly dependent on the choice of confidence coefficient, and hence such the p-value can be improved by using the unconditional approach again. Our numerical studies show that the improved confidence interval p-value is closer to and at least the nominal level than likelihood ratio p-value and confidence interval p-value in all sample sizes.
Abstract . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
致謝辭 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
目錄 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iv
圖目次. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
表目次 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
第一章 緒論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第二章 研究方法 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 5
2.1 概似比p-值檢定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 7
2.2 概似比信賴區間p-值檢定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3 修正信賴區間p-值檢定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .16
第三章 數值分析. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 18
3.1 真正型一誤差的計算 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.1.1 概似比信賴區間p-值檢定的真正型一誤差.. . . . . . . 20
3.1.2 概似比p-值檢定的真正型一誤差 . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.1.3 修正信賴區間p-值檢定的真正型一誤差 . . . . . . . . 23
3.2 p-值檢定真正型一誤差的比較. . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
第四章 結論與未來研究 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
附錄A . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
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[2] Berger, R. L. and Boos, D. D. (1994). "P values maximized over a confidence set for the nuisance parameter". Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1012–1016.
[3] Berger, R. L. and Sidik, K. (2003). "Exact unconditional tests for a 2 × 2 matched-pairs design". Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 12, 91–108.
[4] Casella, G. and Berger, R. L. (2002). "Statistical inference, 2nd edition". Duxbury Press, Pascic Grove, California.
[5] Chen, L. S., Lin, C. Y., and Yang, M. C. (2008). "Improved confidence intervals for the difference of marginal proportions in binary matched-pairs design". Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association, 46, 106–117.
[6] Chen, L. S. and Yang, M. C. (2009). "Improved p-values for testing marginal homogeneity in 2 × 2 contingency tables". Communicative in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 38,1649–1663.
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[10] Hsueh, H. M., Liu, J. P., and Chen, J. J. (2001). "Unconditional exact tests for equivalence or noninferiority for paired binary endpoints". Biometrics, 57, 478–483.
[11] Lin, C. Y. and Yang, M. C. (2005). "Improved p-value tests for comparing two independent binomial proportions". Graduate Institute of Statistics National Central University Technical Report.
[12] McNemar, Q. (1947). "Note on the sampling error of the differences between corrected proportions or percentages". Psychometrzka, 12, 153–157.
[13] Suissa, S. and Shuster, J. J. (1991). "The 2×2 matched-pairs trials: exact unconditional design and analysis". Biometrics, 47, 361–372.
[14] Sidik, K. (1997). "Exact unconditional tests for discrete data". Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. Raleigh (NC): North Carolina State University.
[15] Sidik, K. (2003). "Exact unconditional tests for testing non-inferiority in matched-pairs design". Statistics in Medicine, 22, 265–278.
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