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研究生:羅瑞興
研究生(外文):Jui-hsing Lo
論文名稱:石油價格對於民間消費的影響—以台灣為例
論文名稱(外文):The effect of oil price on consumer spending: evidence from Taiwan
指導教授:陳寶媛陳寶媛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Pao-yuan Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:管理經濟學系經濟學碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:37
中文關鍵詞:石油價格民間消費
外文關鍵詞:consumer spendingoil price
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  消費的多寡除了會影響廠商生產的意願外,也會左右國家的經濟成長。歷年來,我國民間消費支出占國內生產毛額(GDP)的比例皆高過50%,所以消費支出的多寡影響國內產出甚巨。因此究竟哪些因素會影響我國民間消費支出,影響幅度有多大,乃是一個有趣且值得探討的課題。綜觀近年來影響我國民間消費支出的因素,除了內有雙卡風暴之外,來自國際的影響因素即為國際原油價格的節節上升。由於我國對原油的需求有90%以上皆須仰賴進口,因此國際原油價格的歷創新高,除了使世界各國廠商提高生產成本外,也深深地影響各國的民間消費支出。
  
  本文選擇天然資源匱乏、每年需進口大量石油的台灣為對象進行分析,研究期間為1982年第一季到2007年第四季,共計104筆資料。採用平滑門檻轉換誤差修正模型(smooth transition error correction model; STECM)來探討國際原油價格變動對於民間消費是否具有門檻效果存在。
 
  實證結果發現:北海布倫特原油價格變動對於本國民間消費的影響具有非線性的效果,配適羅吉斯平滑轉換誤差修正模型(logistic smooth transition error correction model; LSTECM)後發現:台灣所面對的國際原油價格變動門檻水準為0.0062。
 
  當北海布倫特原油價格變動的幅度小於門檻值0.0062時,北海布倫特原油價格遲滯三期與四期的變動對平均每人民間消費支出的變動具有負向影響,顯示當國際原油價格變動時,國內民眾會減少消費支出,但這現象要在兩季之後才會顯現;而當北海布倫特原油價格變動的幅度大於或等於門檻值0.0062時,北海布倫特原油價格遲滯三期的變動對於平均每人民間消費支出的變動具有正向的影響,此乃因為國際原油價格的上漲造成國內各產業的生產成本增加,而帶來了輸入型通貨膨脹,因此,就算民間消費量減少,但是其消費金額仍將隨著國際原油價格的上漲而增加。
 
  由此可知,台灣的民間消費支出容易因國際原油價格的波動而受到影響。另一方面,由門檻值可以發現:台灣所能忍受國際原油價格波動的幅度很低,顯示台灣民眾的消費行為容易受到國際原油價格波動的影響。主要的原因在於台灣的原油大都仰賴進口,因此,一旦國際原油價格變動,即對國內各廠商的生產成本造成衝擊,進而影響到國內消費。
  The amount of spending affects the willingness of production by manufacturers and determines the economic growth of a country. In the past years, domestic private consumption accounts for more than 50% of the GDP. Therefore, spending amount significantly affects our domestic output. What factors affect our private consumption and the significance of the effect is an interesting topic to be explored. Impacts on private consumption in Taiwan in the past years include double cards crisis (credit cards and cash cards) and increasing oil price. Over 90% of domestic oil depends on import. Record high oil price, in addition to leading to higher production cost all over the world, also greatly impacts our private consumption.
 
  Other than impacts of world oil price on private consumption, this paper also further analyzes the nonlinear effect of oil price changes on private consumption. From the logistic smooth transition error correction model (LSTECM) adopted in this paper, when the fluctuation of world oil price does not exceed 0.0062, it causes negative influence; as it exceeds 0.0062, it brings positive influence. The result indicates that under these two different systems, world oil price affects private consumption differently.
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與背景1
第一節 研究方法與目的2
第二節 研究架構與流程3
  
第二章 文獻回顧4
  
第三章 研究方法9
第一節 消費函數9
第二節 單根檢定9
第三節 共整合檢定12
第四節 誤差修正模型15
第五節 平滑轉換門檻誤差修正模型16
第六節 線性檢定19
第七節 選擇與估計非線性模型20
  
第四章 實證結果與分析23
第一節 資料說明與處理23
第二節 單根檢定23
第三節 共整合檢定25
第四節 誤差修正模型26
第五節 線性檢定28
第六節 模型選擇29
第七節 非線性模型估計與模型診斷30
 
第五章 結論34
  
參考文獻36
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Mork, K. A. (1989),“Oil and the macroeconomy when price go up and down:an extension of Hamilton’s result,” Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
 
Mehra, Yassh P. and J. D. Petersen, (2005),“Oil price and consumer spending,”Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic, 91(3), 51-70.
 
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