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研究生:柯舜升
研究生(外文):Shun-sheng Ke
論文名稱:電力消費與分類部門經濟成長之因果關係:以台灣為例
論文名稱(外文):Causality Between Electricity Consumption and Sector Economic Growth: Evidence from Taiwan
指導教授:邱魏頌正邱魏頌正引用關係
指導教授(外文):Song-zan Chiou-Wei
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:管理經濟學系經濟學碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:31
中文關鍵詞:誤差修正模型電力消費經濟成長因果關係
外文關鍵詞:electricity consumptioneconomic growthcausalityerror-correction model
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  • 被引用被引用:2
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  本文利用共整合與誤差修正模型,來探討台灣電力消費分別對實質國內生產毛額(GDP)、服務業部門實質國內生產毛額(Service GDP;SGDP)與非服務業部門實質國內生產毛額(Non-service GDP;NGDP)之間的因果關係,資料期間為1961至2007年。實證結果顯示,電力消費與GDP存在有雙向因果關係,這表示電力消費會直接影響經濟成長,而經濟成長會進一步刺激電力消費。然而SGDP對電力消費有單向因果關係,則表示電力節約政策可以實施,對服務業經濟成長不會有不良影響。NGDP與電力消費呈現雙向因果關係,表示電力消費會直接影響非服務業部門經濟成長,而非服務業部門經濟成長會進一步刺激電力消費。
  The co-integration and error correction method were applied using 1961-2007 data for Taiwan to examine causality between electricity consumption and, respectively, GDP, service GDP (SGDP) and Non-service GDP (NGDP). The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and GDP, implying that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also simulates further electricity consumption. However, unidirectional causality runs from SGDP to electricity consumption. Thus, electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating service sector economic side effects. There is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and NGDP, which means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects non-service economic growth and that non-service economic growth also simulates further electricity consumption.
第一章 緒論.............................1 
第一節 研究背景與動機...................1 
第二節 研究目的.........................4
 
第二章 文獻回顧.........................5
 
第三章 研究方法........................10 
第一節 單根檢定........................10 
第二節 共整合檢定......................12 
第三節 誤差修正模型....................14
 
第四章 實證流程與結果..................15 
第一節 資料描述與實證流程..............15 
第二節 實證結果........................18
 
第五章 結論............................28
 
參考文獻...............................30
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Yoo, S.-H. (2006), “The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries” Energy Policy, 34, pp.3573-3582.
 
Yang, H.Y. (2000), “A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan,” Energy Economics, 22, pp. 309-317.
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