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研究生:胡琪豐
研究生(外文):Chi-feng Hu
論文名稱:台灣人口結構轉變對經濟成長的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Effects of Demographic Transition on Economic Growth in Taiwan
指導教授:陳寶媛陳寶媛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Pao-yuan Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:管理經濟學系經濟學碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:66
中文關鍵詞:少子化人口老化預測準確度經濟成長人口結構
外文關鍵詞:forecast accuracypopulation agingeconomic growthbaby bustpopulation structure
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  少子化(baby bust)與人口老化(population aging)的現象除了使台灣面臨扶養、退休與醫療等重要的社會問題外,也漸漸的影響到未來工作年齡人口數的多寡與經濟成長的表現。而有關人口結構轉變對經濟成長的影響,過去的研究大多採取跨國性的橫斷面資料(cross-sectional data)或者追蹤資料(panel data)進行研究。然而,以台灣為研究對象針對此議題進行分析的文獻仍不多見。因此,人口結構轉變對我國經濟成長的影響,乃是本文的研究主題。
  
  本文以Bloom and Williamson(1998)的理論架構為基礎,採用民國43年到民國96年的時間序列年資料,分析人口結構變數對我國經濟成長的影響。實證結果發現:台灣人口結構轉變的確會對經濟成長造成影響。本文以人均所得成長率(growth rate of per capita income)代表經濟成長率,各變數對經濟成長的影響如下:由於資本稀釋的關係,因此總人口成長率的提高,反而帶動人均所得成長率之下降;而工作年齡人口成長率、預期壽命和人力資本的上升則對經濟成長具有顯著的正向影響。此外,每單位勞動資本存量對經濟成長具有顯著的負向影響,這有可能是因為每單位勞動資本存量尚未到達體系之靜止均衡狀態(steady state)所致。
  
  本文除了探討人口結構變數對台灣經濟成長的影響之外,亦嘗試利用加入人口結構變數後的經濟成長模型來進行樣本內預測,並與行政院主計處和中研院所發布的預測資料進行預測準確度之比較,以探討加入人口結構變數之成長模型是否可以提高對經濟成長的預測力。本文的實證結果發現:就RMSE與MSE此二預測準則而言,經濟成長模型加入了人口結構變數之後,其對經濟成長率的預測確實比主計處和中研院所公布的預測資料更為準確;然而,若就Diebold and Mariano(1995)之檢定而言,則主計處和中研院的預測力大致和本文所設定之經濟成長模型的預測力沒有太大差異。
  Taiwan is facing a baby bust, with an aging population affecting important social issues such as retirement levels and demand for health care, as well as leading to a decline in the size of the working population, which could affect economic growth. Existing literature on the relationship between changes in population structure and economic growth has focused on the use of cross-sectional or panel data; however, little of this has been based upon Taiwan. The main aim of this paper, therefore, is to examine the way that changes in demographic structure are affecting economic growth in this country.
 
  This paper follows the theoretical framework provided by Bloom and Williamson (1998), applying this to data from 1954 to 2007 in order to analyze the affect of a changing population structure on Taiwan’s economic growth. The empirical results show of this show that demographic changes are certainly affecting our country’s economic development. The growth rate of per capita income is used here as an indicator of economic growth, and is found to be affected in several ways. Capital dilution means that an increase in the growth rate of the overall population has a negative effect on the growth rate of per capita income, but a larger working population, longer life expectancy and greater human capital stock all have significant positive affects on economic growth. Furthermore, increases in physical capital have a significant and negative affect on economic growth, which may be a result of physical capital not having reached the system’s steady state level.
 
  This paper not only discusses the ways in which demographic changes are affecting economic growth in Taiwan, but also attempts to add population structure variables into a model of economic growth, which is then used to produce a sample forecast of future growth. The accuracy of this prediction is then compared to the forecasts published on the official websites of the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Institute of Economics at the Academia Sinica (IEAS), in order to determine if the inclusion of demographic variables could improve the forecasts produced by economic modeling. Analysis using RMSE and MSE shows that an economic model incorporating demographic data produces more accurate forecasts than those of the DGBAS and IEAS. However, Diebold & Mariano (1995)’s asymptotic test suggests that the DGBAS and IEAS forecasts are roughly equivalent in accuracy to the one produced by our model.
【口試合格證明】...............................I
【謝辭】.......................................II
【中文摘要】...................................IV
【英文摘要】...................................VI
【目錄】......................................VIII
【圖目錄】.....................................X
【表目錄】.....................................XI
 
第一章【緒論】
第一節 研究動機與目的...........................1
第二節 研究架構.................................6
 
第二章【文獻回顧】
第一節 人口與經濟成長理論之回顧.................7
第二節 人口結構轉變對經濟成長的影響之相關文獻......................................9
第三節 預期壽命對經濟成長的影響之相關文獻.....16
第四節 人力資本對經濟成長的影響之相關文獻......17
 
第三章【理論模型】............................20
 
第四章【實證方法與資料處理】
第一節 實證方法與模型設定.....................23
第二節 資料來源與說明.........................24
第三節 變數定義與預期符號.....................26
第四節 預測準確度之衡量法.....................30
 
第五章【實證結果分析】
第一節 敘述性統計.............................34
第二節 實證結果與分析.........................36
第三節 預測準確度之比較.......................39
 
第六章【結論與建議】
第一節 研究結論...............................43
第二節 未來研究之建議.........................44
 
【參考文獻】..................................46
【附錄一】....................................52
【附錄二】....................................54
【附錄三】....................................58
【附錄四】....................................60
【附錄五】....................................62
【附表一】....................................63
【附表二】....................................64
【附表三】....................................65
【附表四】....................................66
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