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研究生:張仲甫
研究生(外文):Chung-fu Chang
論文名稱:作業資訊匱乏下之專案評估
論文名稱(外文):PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER INUSFFICENT ACTIVITY INFORMATION
指導教授:藍俊雄藍俊雄引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chun-hsiung Lan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:企業管理系管理科學碩博士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:趕工成本專案管理計畫評核術要徑法
外文關鍵詞:lingo 9.0critical path methodprogram evaluation & review techniqueproject managementcrashing cost
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  • 被引用被引用:2
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
  本研究主要探討專案所面臨的情況,專案大多數是不重複的,因此工作站作業完成時間的歷史資料匱乏下,導致專案完成時間無法正確估算,而影響專案管理者對專案的控制與規劃產生資源與成本的增加及浪費。專案工作站作業完成時間不確定性,以不同的專案工作站作業完成時間下的考量專案完工時程問題,然而提出最適的專案趕工時間成本考量,本研究將專案趕工問題,建構成整數非線性規劃INLP (Integer Nonlinear Programming)的數學模型。
 
  本研究主要以計劃評核術(Program Evaluation and Review Technique, PERT)與要徑法(Critical Path Method,CPM)來探討專案所的情況。本研究不僅討論工作站作業完成時間的不確定性現象模擬以符合真實,並將專案工程進行的各項限制條件,製作成數學問題以求在符合趕工時間條件要求下的求取。此外本研究運用Lingo 9.0 extended version 語法進行非線性專案趕工模式構建,並採用Lingo 9.0軟體內建之Global Solver 進行其全域最佳解之求解。綜言之,本研究可視為一具價值之決策支援工具,企業僅需對模式進行簡單的修正即可快速取得最適解。
  The research primarily focuses on the discussion about various conditions of a project that may face. Most of the projects are not duplicable. Therefore, due to its lack of historical duration data of workstations, the estimated schedule of the whole project has never been accurate. As a result, it causes an impact on a project manager controlling and planning the project, which results in wasting resources and increasing costs. Moreover, this project will become an obstacle to the developing corporation as a whole. With the uncertainty of the durations of workstation project, a better way of solving the issue of how to estimate a time when a project can be finished based on the durations of different workstation projects is proposed in this research. An Integer Nonlinear Programming (INPL) mathematical model is introduced to analyze the time.cost trade.off and then find the most feasible schedule of a crashing project.
 
  In addition, the research adopts Program Evaluation Review Technique(PRET) along with Critical Path Method (CPM) to evaluate the situations that a project encounters. In order to make the simulation close to the reality, not only the uncertainty of the duration of workstations is considered, but also the limitations in the crashing project are taken into account. These criteria then are turned into mathematical equations. Therefore, the result generated from the calculation is able to meet the given requirements. Moreover, the research uses Lingo 9.0 extended version language to construct nonlinear project crashing model. By using the Global Solver built in the Lingo 9.0 application, the best global solution for the project can be solved. In other words, with this model, the cost of a crashing project can be more accurately estimated even with insufficient historical data. Overall, the research can be considered as an assistant tool for decision making. According to the different scenario that a project is in, only a few simple modifications on this model are needed to be made. After that, it can help the corporation determine the most suitable solution within no time.
中文摘要………………………………………i
英文摘要………………………………………ii
目錄……………………………………………iii
表目錄…………………………………………v
圖目錄…………………………………………vi

第一章
緒論……………………………………………1
1.1研究背景與動機……………………………1
1.2研究目的……………………………………2
1.3研究架構與流程……………………………2
 
第二章
文獻探討…………………………………………4
2.1專案管理………………………………………4
2.2計劃評核術、要徑法…………………………9
2.3作業時間不確定性……………………………12
2.4趕工成本………………………………………16

第三章
模式建構…………………………………………22
3.1基本假設………………………………………18
3.2符號介紹………………………………………19
3.3決策變數………………………………………23
3.4模式架構………………………………………23

第四章
數值範例與模擬分析………………………………26
4.1專案網路圖中工作站之作業期望時間………28
4.2專案完成時間之機率分配……………………35
4.3專案趕工成本…………………………………37

第五章
結論與建議…………………………………………40
5.1結論……………………………………………40
5.2建議……………………………………………42

參考文獻
一、中文部分………………………………………43
二、英文部分……………………………………44
一、中文部分
1. 林金面(民91),營建管理學,文笙書局,台北。
 
2. 陳銘崑、許世朋(民93),模糊關鍵鏈專案排程模式,工業工程學刊,Vol. 21, No. 2, pp.167-176。
 
3. 褚文明 (民96),隨機性專案網路在完成時間機率分佈及最佳化資源分配之研究,東海大學工業工程與經營資訊研究所博士論文。
 
4. 潘南飛、黃冠智(民93) ,模糊線性規劃用於專案排程分析之研究,工程科技與教育學刊,第一卷、第二期,pp. 173-183。
 
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