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研究生:謝稚莉
研究生(外文):Chih-li Hsieh
論文名稱:天災、人禍、轉作、生質能與價格對美國玉米供應的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Efffects of Natural Disaster, Man-made Crisis, Crop Rotation, Bio-energy, and Price to the U.S. Cron Supply
指導教授:楊國樑楊國樑引用關係趙家民趙家民引用關係
指導教授(外文):Kuo-liang YangChia-min Chao
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南華大學
系所名稱:環境管理研究所
學門:環境保護學門
學類:環境資源學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:中文
論文頁數:75
中文關鍵詞:糧食危機氣候變遷生質能
外文關鍵詞:Food crisisClimatic changeBio-energy
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  近年來,糧食問題逐漸取代石油危機和環境危機,成為最熱門的討論議題。一方面日益高漲的糧價讓人民上街抗議,動亂紛起,全球各個國家正傾力確保糧食供應無缺;另一方面,糧食也成為國際談判籌碼之一。因氣候變遷而影響糧食生產是主要的短缺原因,然而飢餓絕非只是天災人禍的苦果。糧食短缺會引發更多負面效應,造成社會動亂、通貨膨脹,市場炒作價格,如此週而復始,形成惡性循環。糧食作物原本就存在計畫生產與實際產出的時間落差,加上氣候變遷,各地出現暖化、旱災、水災更不利生產,使糧食缺口無法馬上填補的問題,益加明顯。如何才能生產足夠的糧食,並解決飢餓與糧食供需的問題,對於人類而言,這些是自古就必須面對的。充分的糧食供應則是國際社會必須優先處理的重要課題。然而本研究擬以造成糧食供應的成因有:一、天災,使得國家糧食生產量減少;二、人禍,失業率的攀升,貿易下滑,商品價格下跌,勞動力下降而造成生產力降低,以致糧食產量的減少;三、轉作,改作更高經濟價值的作物;四、生質能,發展生質能源將會造成與民爭糧;五、價格,上漲可能促使農民增加耕作面積。
 
  本研究以美國的糧食供應中主要的糧食作物-玉米為研究對象,並以迴歸與Panel data的分析方式,歸納探討天災、人禍、轉作、生質能及玉米價格對玉米的栽種、收穫面積、產量、存量等造成的可能影響與顯著性,並對於資源與環境間之平衡提出更深一層的思索。
 
  由研究結果中,可得知影響糧食供應的原因有一、生質能,發展生質能將對玉米栽種、收穫面積與產量、存量皆有顯著的影響。二、種植菸草,亦會影響玉米的栽種、收穫面積、產量及存量。三、玉米價格,迴歸分析中對玉米供應的影響具顯著性,且為負向關係,但由價格資料數據中可知其波動並不明顯,由此判斷可能因國家的保護政策及貿易體制下,而保障了價格使其不受市場波動而起伏不定。
 
  美國大肆推動生質能源的發展,似乎只是看重自己的玉米優勢,而忽略了市場的價格機能及生產方式,以致引發不小的副作用(如:人與車爭糧,糧食供應與分配不均,或生產過程中溫室氣體的排放量),甚至引起國際間環保團體的關注。糧食危機的出現,只是農業工業化問題的冰山一角,要長遠化解危機,必須減少依賴石化燃料,以舒緩氣候的異常變化;而農業生產也必須減少使用化學肥料和農藥等化學物質,改採用生態農業及有機農業生產方式,各國也必須改變及注重生質能的生產方式,直到糧食供應得到緩解為止。
  In recent years, the food-related questions have gradually replaced oil shock and environment crisis as the most popular agenda. On the one hand, growing food price cause protest on the street with the attention of food safety on food supply for all governments; On the other hand, food problem has also become special chip of international negotiations. Global climatic change is agreed as the major reason affecting food production. Hungry, however, is not the only bitterness from nature and man-made disasters. The food shortage is likely to cause more negative effects, such as social conflict, economic inflation, fluctuation of market price, and so on. The circulation will not be a quick end.
 
  The process of food production demonstrates a time gap between planned production and practical production. Global climate change-induced global warming, drought, and floods further suffer the food supply and delay fulfilling the gap of food shortage. Providing sufficient food and solving hunger and food supply had been the basic surviving problems to be faced from the old era. Sufficient food supply system is the most important agenda for the international society. Causes of food crisis include: 1.natural disasters that reduce food production; 2.man-made disasters such as rising unemployment rate, decreases in the amount of international trade, price of commodity, and labor productivity will reduce food production; 3.fallow or rotation to crops with high economic value; 4.development of bio-energy that will compete with food supply.
 
  This research surveys questions of global food supply and focuses on corn production in the U.S. as example. Natural disaster, man-made disaster, fallow, bio-fuel, and corn price are the selected variables to regress on dependent variables of corn cultivation, harvest, production, and stock. The possible impacts on food supply are inspected to provide deeper deliberation on balance of resource and environment. Results show that causes for the problem of food supply are: 1.bio-energy- affects corn cultivation, harvest, production, and stock; 2.fallow to tobacco-affects corn cultivation, harvest, production, and stock; 3.corn price- did not significantly affect food supply because of a relatively stable time trend. The stable corn price is due to national protection policy and international trade system.
 
  The development of bio-energy in the U.S. seems only to take advantage of corn production rather than market mechanism and production process. The resulting side effects (eg., competition between human and vehicle of energy, imbalance of food supply and distribution, green-house gas emission during production process) are significant enough to draw international concerns from environmental protection groups. Problem of food crisis is only part of agriculture-industrialization and it takes further steps to liberate abnormal climate change by reducing the dependence on fossil fuel. At the same time, agricultural production in all countries has to adopt organic production rather than chemical fertilizer and pesticide until release of global food supply is observed.
第一章 緒論..................................1
第一節 研究背景..............................1
第二節 研究目的.............................12
 
第二章 文獻探討.............................13
第一節 糧食作物供應量.......................13
第二節 天然災害.............................18
第三節 人禍.................................24
第四節 農地轉作.............................27
第五節 生質能源.............................29
第六節 糧食價格.............................37
 
第三章 研究方法.............................39
第一節 生產函數.............................39
第二節 多元迴歸分析.........................42
第三節 Panel data...........................44
 
第四章 資料來源.............................47
第一節 應變數...............................47
一、玉米之栽種、收穫面積....................47
二、玉米之產量、存量........................50
三、應變數的相關係數分析....................52
第二節 自變數...............................53
一、天災....................................53
二、失業率..................................54
三、轉作....................................56
四、生質能..................................58
五、玉米價格................................59
 
第五章 研究結果.............................60
第一節 迴歸分析.............................60
一、栽種和收穫面積..........................60
二、產量和存量 .............................62
第二節 Panel data...........................65
 
第六章 結論與建議...........................70
 
參考文獻....................................72
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