本文的應用限制最小平方估計模型(RLS)、絕對限制制小平方估計模型(A-RLS)、在動態策略下易估計的EWMA模型、考量高峰厚尾分配的Power EWMA模型及保有EWMA與Power EWMA兩模型優點的Bias-Corrected EWMA等模型來對TAIFEX台灣加權股價指數期貨和MSCI摩根台股指數期貨進行最適避險比率的估計，期望能找出具有較高準確性的估計方法，有效的提升投資者的避險績效。
本研究除了使用動態避險的策略方式以及樣本外的觀點來進行估計外，另應用三種分別為避險後投資組合變異數、樣本外最適避險比率變異數及平均數不同避險績效衡量之觀點。實證結果顯示 (一) 在樣本期間下，Power EWMA模型之避險績效最佳；(二) 各模型之不同衰退因子設定對各指數期貨的避險績效並無一致性影響。

This study applies the restricted least squares estimator(RLS),the absolute restricted least squares estimator(A-RLS), and Bias-Corrected EWMA model to estimate optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures. Using for stock index futures ,we compare the optimal hedge ratios and hedge performances with EWMA mode which under normal distribution and Power EWMA model which considers the distribution of assets return is leptokutic. Empirical result shows that the (1) Two stock index futures under any of models, using the hedge performances we can find Power EWMA model is the best. (2) There is no consistency between the hedge performances and various decay factors.

目 錄
中文摘要---------------------------------------------- i
英文摘要---------------------------------------------- ii
誌謝-------------------------------------------------- iii
目錄-------------------------------------------------- iv
表目錄------------------------------------------------ vi
圖目錄------------------------------------------------ vii
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機 ------------------------------------ 1
第二節 研究目的與內容------------------------------- 4
第三節 研究架構------------------------------------- 6
第二章 文獻回顧------------------------------------- 8
第三章 研究方法
第一節 動態避險策略--------------------------------- 18
第二節 最適避險比率--------------------------------- 20
第三節 EWMA估計式----------------------------------- 22
第四節 Power EWMA模型------------------------------- 23
第五節 Bias-Corrected EWMA模型---------------------- 27
第六節 限制最小平方估計模型------------------------- 29
第七節 避險績效之衡量------------------------------- 31
第四章 實證研究
第一節 資料來源------------------------------------- 33
第二節 實證結果與分析------------------------------- 36
第五章 結論----------------------------------------- 49
參考文獻---------------------------------------------- 50

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