國內政治因素對股價市場之變化一直是一重大影響因素，對於新上市股票異常報酬率之研究，國內文獻中鮮少將政治因素與IPO股價加以探討，過去研究發現前總統李登輝先生執政期間中華開發持有IPO股票相對於大華、台証承銷的IPO股票有顯著的超額報酬；其研究以前總統李登輝先生在位期間於民國八十一年任用劉泰英先生擔任中華開發之董事長後至民國八十九年間中華開發持有之IPO股票與大華、台証承銷IPO股票報酬率為樣本，發現中華開發持股比例越高的股票，其超額報酬愈大；中華開發持股之絕對金額越高，超額報酬亦愈大。本研究則以政黨輪替後，探討前總統李登輝先生卸任後中華開發持有之IPO股票之報酬率是否仍顯著異於大華與台証。結果發現，政黨輪替之後，中華開發持有IPO股票於上市後之異常報酬率為正之家數相較於大華與台証證券並無明顯之差距；無論是原始異常報酬率亦或是扣除大盤指數成長率之IPO股票報酬率，中華開發與大華、台証做獨立樣本Ｔ檢定，皆無顯著相關且中華開發持有IPO股票之原始報酬率相對大華以及台証為低。

Domestic political factors on changes in stock market has been a major influencing factors, the literature rarely domestic political factors will be explored with the raw initial return of initial public offering on stock market research. The past study found that former President DENG-HUI-LI appointed TAI-YING-LIU to be a chairman of China Development Financial Holdings in 1992. The empirical results indicate hold return of China Development Financial Holdings higher than Grand Cathay Securities Corporation and Taishin Securities Corporation. In 90 days , hold return of China Development Financial Holdings was significantly higher than merging firms. This study treats the governing party change in 2000 as a confounding variable to see whether return is affected by political changes.

目 錄
中文提要i
英文提要ii
致謝iii
目錄iv
表目錄v
圖目錄vi
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究背景與動機1
第二節 研究架構2
第三節 研究流程3
第二章 文獻探討4
第一節 IPO股票之異常報酬4
第二節 IPO股票價格之折價理論7
第三節 市場反應8
第四節 IPO股票異常報酬之因素10
第三章 資料來源與研究設計13
第一節 資料來源13
第二節 研究設計13
第四章 實證結果16
第一節 初始報酬之敘述16
第二節 異常報酬之實證分析-20
第五章 結論25
參考文獻27
表4-1 樣本家數之初始報酬18
表4-2 樣本統計數19
表 4-3 中華開發與大華IPO股票原始異常報酬率平均數差之 t 檢定，假設變異數不相等21
表 4-4 中華開發與台證IPO股票原始異常報酬率平均數差之 t 檢定，假設變異數不相等22
表 4-5 中華開發與大華IPO股票原始異常報酬率扣除大盤指數成長率平均數差之 t 檢定，假設變異數不相等23
表 4-6 中華開發與台證IPO股票原始異常報酬率扣除大盤指數成長率平均數差之 t 檢定，假設變異數不相等24
圖1.1 研究流程圖3

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