近年來乾旱頻仍，國內外針對乾旱的研究無論是在氣象、農業、
水文或預警方面，均有許多研究成果。不過於現有之研究中對實務應
用而言，其實仍有進一步提供決策者更明確決策訊息的需要。
本文以新竹地區供水系統為例，透過(1)水庫運轉操作之原則，
配合水庫乾旱影響因子，及河川攔河堰之流量隸屬度，評估分析得乾
旱綜合指標；(2)針對未來三個月之不同水文條件進行供水模擬分
析，以掌握有效供水狀態；(3)彙整前述之乾旱指標分析，並考量不
確定下不同風險之決策，且以燈號警訊方式呈現，並應用氣象預報進
行分析，整合建立水庫風險乾旱預警系統；(4)強化乾旱預警與應變
機制之區域乾旱預警模式，更進一步利用資訊化技術建置線上決策支
援系統，使本研究成果能更落實於乾旱防災管理之作業。
結果顯示，本研究所提出的水庫風險乾旱預警系統，對新竹地區
可適切掌握乾旱發展之潛勢，故可於枯旱缺水之期間亦可有效掌握休
耕或減水策略之訊息。而乾旱預警決策支援系統方面，可進行分析本
研究模式相關乾旱預警資訊及風險決策訊息。
最後，透過乾旱預警決策支援系統之建置，使用者可查詢水庫蓄
水量、流量等水情歷史紀錄；透過線上分析可得不同流量機率下之燈
號建議，決策者可對其進行抗旱措施，以減少旱災所造成之損失。

-IV-
目錄
誌謝·······································································································Ⅰ
摘要·······································································································Ⅱ
Abstract ·································································································Ⅲ
目錄·······································································································Ⅳ
表目錄···································································································Ⅶ
圖目錄···································································································Ⅹ
第一章前言···························································································1
1-1 研究緣起..................................................................................... 1
1-2 研究目的..................................................................................... 1
1-3 研究範疇..................................................................................... 1
1-4 文獻回顧..................................................................................... 5
1-4-1 乾旱定義.......................................................................... 5
1-4-2 台灣乾旱特性.................................................................. 6
1-4-3 乾旱預警分析相關研究.................................................. 7
第二章水庫風險乾旱預警系統之理論介紹·········································9
2-1 現況乾旱指標(D)...................................................................... 10
2-1-1 模糊綜合評估................................................................ 10
2-1-2 水庫蓄水量乾旱等級評估............................................ 12
2-1-3 河川流量乾旱等級評估................................................ 13
2-1-4 乾旱指標制定................................................................ 16
2-2 未來水源情勢(S) ...................................................................... 16
- V -
2-2-1 水源情勢分析等級劃分................................................ 16
2-2-2 水源情勢分析等級判定................................................ 16
2-3 乾旱預警指標(DAI) ................................................................. 17
2-3-1 水源情勢分析等級劃分................................................ 22
2-3 乾旱決策分析........................................................................... 23
2-4-1 風險型乾旱預警系統決策分析.................................... 29
2-4-2 氣象預報資訊之應用分析............................................ 30
第三章研究案例·················································································34
3-1 流域概況................................................................................... 34
3-1-1 頭前溪流域.................................................................... 35
3-2 研究區域內相關水利設施....................................................... 35
3-3 供水系統現況及需求............................................................... 37
3-3-1 供水系統現況................................................................ 37
3-3-2 區域內供水需求............................................................ 38
3-4 水庫蓄水運用規則................................................................... 39
3-5 應用模式................................................................................... 40
3-5-1 乾旱指標........................................................................ 40
3-5-2 研究區域之水源情勢分析............................................ 41
3-6 研究區域之案例分析............................................................... 42
3-7 決策行為探討........................................................................... 66
第四章水庫乾旱預警系統之建置······················································70
4-1 系統架構................................................................................... 70
4-2 乾旱預警系統介紹................................................................... 72
-VI-
第五章結論與建議·············································································83
參考文獻·······························································································84
-VII-
表目錄
表2-1 旱災等級區分表·······································································17
表2-2 未來缺水指標各標地缺水等及標準········································18
表2-3 旱象缺水預警示意表································································19
表2-4 乾案預警燈號對應之乾旱預警指標值····································20
表2-5 乾旱預警指標相對關係表························································21
表2-6 不同時間下乾旱預警決策示意圖············································21
表2-7 乾旱預警等級因應對策····························································23
表2-8 上坪流量站流量資料對數型態之統計特性·····························25
表2-9 上坪流量站流量資料之相關係數············································27
表2-10 流量轉置機率矩陣系統狀態之劃分範圍·······························28
表2-11 上坪流量站之流量轉置機率矩陣···········································28
表2-12 民國96 年一月上坪溪攔河堰未來水文情勢之機率分佈表30
表2-13 民國96 年一月上坪溪攔河堰乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析)31
表2-14 民國96 年一月新竹地區未來水文情勢之機率分佈表··········33
表2-15 民國96 年一月新竹地區氣象應用分析·································34
表3-1 新竹地區現有淨水場供水能力表·············································37
表3-3 研究區域內未來需水狀況表·····················································39
表3-4 寶二水庫乾旱指標門檻值·························································41
表3-5 民國91 年上坪攔河堰以及寶山水庫現況乾旱分析················44
表3-6 民國91 年水源情勢分析表·······················································44
表3-6(續)民國91 年水源情勢分析表·················································45
表3-7 民國91 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析)··46
-VIII-
表3-8 民國91 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析) ·················48
表3-9 民國91 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析····························49
表3-10 民國92 年水源情勢分析表·····················································50
表3-10(續)民國92 年水源情勢分析表···············································50
表3-11 民國92 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析) 51
表3-12 民國92 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析) ···············52
表3-13 民國92 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析··························53
表3-14 民國93 年水源情勢分析表·····················································54
表3-14(續)民國93 年水源情勢分析表···············································54
表3-15 民國93 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析)55
表3-16 民國93 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析) ···············56
表3-17 民國93 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析··························56
表3-18 民國94 年水源情勢分析表·····················································57
表3-18(續)民國94 年水源情勢分析表···············································58
表3-19 民國94 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析)58
表3-20 民國94 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析)析···········59
表3-21 民國94 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析··························59
表3-22 民國95 年水源情勢分析表·····················································60
表3-22(續)民國95 年水源情勢分析表···············································61
表3-23 民國95 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析)61
表3-24 民國95 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析) ···············62
表3-25 民國95 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析··························62
表3-26 民國96 年水源情勢分析表·····················································63
表3-26(續)民國96 年水源情勢分析表···············································64
-IX-
表3-27 民國96 年新竹地區不同水文情勢乾旱預警分析(事前分析)64
表3-28 民國96 年新竹地區乾旱預警決策分析(事後分析) ···············65
表3-29 民國96 年新竹地區氣象乾旱預警決策分析··························65
表3-30 累積機率(P=0.01)之誤差分析矩陣·········································66
表3-31 累積機率(P=0.5)之誤差分析矩陣···········································67
表3-32 累積機率(P=0.99)之誤差分析矩陣·········································67
表3-33 準確性之評估··········································································69
表4-27 民國95 年基隆地區乾旱預警決策分析································87
表4-28 民國95 年基隆地區乾旱預警氣象應用分析·························88
表4-29 誤差矩陣·················································································89
表4-30 基隆地區不同累積機率誤差矩陣分析表(1/2) ·······················91
表4-31 基隆地區不同累積機率誤差矩陣分析表(2/2) ·······················92
表4-32 基隆地區不同累積機率準確率/錯估率分析表······················94
表4-33 歷年合計流量之水文特性······················································96
表4-34 基隆地區不同累積機率豐平枯水文年之準確度分析表·······97
- X -
圖目錄
圖2-1 模糊集合之隸屬函數關係·························································11
圖2-2 水庫蓄水量評估因子所對應評估指標之隸屬度函數··············12
圖2-3 旬流量超越機率分布曲線圖·····················································14
圖2-4 上坪溪攔河堰旬流量超越機率示意圖·····································14
圖2-5 河川流量隸屬度函數圖·····························································15
圖2-7 水文退水曲線特性之示意圖·····················································22
圖2-8 上坪溪攔河堰原始流量資料之自相關分析圖··························25
圖2-9 上坪溪攔河堰原始流量資料之部分自相關分析圖··················26
圖2-10 中央氣象局發布未來三個月雨量機率預報圖························32
圖3-1 新竹地區(研究區域)水系分佈圖··············································34
圖3-2 新竹地區供水系統示意圖·························································38
圖3-3 寶二水庫運用規線圖·································································39
圖3-4 寶二水庫運用規線圖·································································40
圖3-5 上坪攔河堰流量超越機率曲線圖·············································43
圖3-6 各不同累積機率下準確率及相關誤差之變化圖······················68
圖4-1 乾旱預警決策支援系統架構·····················································71
圖4-2 乾旱預警系統首頁圖·································································72
圖4-3 理論介紹圖一············································································73
圖4-4 理論介紹圖二············································································74
圖4-5 理論介紹圖三············································································74
圖4-6 新竹地區乾旱預警系統線上分析輸入視窗圖··························75
圖4-7 寶二水庫規線操作說明圖·························································76
-XI-
圖4-8 規則調整說明圖········································································76
圖4-9 變更需水量說明圖····································································77
圖4-10 變更規線打折說明圖·······························································78
圖4-11 變更寶二水庫最大有效蓄水量說明圖····································78
圖4-12 分析結果說明圖······································································79
圖4-13 寶山-寶二水庫蓄水量變化圖··················································80
圖4-14 救旱措施圖··············································································80
圖4-15 寶山-寶二水庫與上坪攔河堰歷史狀況查詢工作表畫面·······81
圖4-16 隆恩堰流量歷時過程線畫面···················································82

85
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