航運相關產業中，近年以散裝航運市場之變化最具挑戰性。由於新船與二手船舶價格波動劇烈，導致購船決策難度大幅提高。我國散裝航運公司船舶載重噸大部分規模較小，每次購船決策對未來營運將產生深遠影響。基於散裝航運公司立場，本研究針對新船與二手船舶價格進行影響因素之分析，供散裝航運公司購船決策時之參考。此外，由於購置新船與二手船舶影響因素不同，又未有一套較完整之評估工具，使散裝航運公司暴露於極大風險中。因此，本研究利用Clarkson過去十二年(1997年1月至2008年12月)相關變數之月資料，採用ADF單根檢定法、逐步迴歸分析及多元迴歸分析，分析影響二手船舶價格及二手船舶價格(SP)與新船價格(NP)之比值(SP/NP)之因素，藉以分析二手船舶價格和SP/NP比值在散裝海岬型(Capesize)、巴拿馬極限型(Panamax)、超輕便極限型船(Supramax)、輕便型船(Handysize)等四種不同船型之變化。本文研究結果如下：
1.影響二手船舶價格的因素研究中，影響Capesize船型最顯著之變數為二手船舶交易量、新船每噸建造成本變動及原油價格變動量。於Panamax船型中，影響二手船舶價格變動以新船價格變動量、論時傭船租金變動量及原油價格變動量最顯著，其次為二手船舶交易量與船舶拆解量。於Supramax船型中，二手船舶價格變動最為顯著者為論時傭船租金變動及新船每噸建造成本變動。於Handysize船型中，二手船舶價格變動受新船價格變動、論時傭船租金變動及船舶拆解量變動影響最顯著。
2.影響SP/NP比值的因素研究中，於Capesize船型以二手船舶交易量與原油價格變化量最顯著。於Supramax船型與Panamax船型中，都以論時傭船租金變動為最顯著影響因素。於Handysize船型中，影響SP/NP比值變動最顯著者為論時傭船租金變動與船舶拆解量變動。
散裝航運公司可依據本研究所提供的影響不同船型船價之因素，作為購置新船及二手船舶之決策依據。

In recent years, among shipping related industries, the variation of bulk shipping market has been the most challenging, and the strategy management in bulk shipping differs from that of liner shipping. Additionally, the fierce fluctuation in prices of newbuilding and second-hand vessels has accelerated the difficulty in making purchasing decisions. In Taiwan, most bulk shipping corporations own small-scale ship deadweight tonnages only; therefore, each ship purchasing decision would have deep and far influence on the shipping corporations. Implementing this research on the basis of bulk shipping corporations, we plan to evaluate purchasing decisions of newbuilding and secondhand vessels. Because of the discrepancy in the influence factors and the lack of an overall evaluation criterion for making purchasing decisions, bulk shipping corporations are exposed to considerable risks. For this reason, in order to discuss the ratio of secondhand price (SP) divided by newbuilding price (NP) and the variations in Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize as a reference for vessel purchasing decision-making, we not only adopt the related variables of the last decade (January 1997 to December 2008) from Clarkson but also apply the methods of ADF Test, Stepwise Regression and Multiple Regression. Results demonstrate as follows:
1. In secondhand vessel purchasing decisions, secondhand vessel transaction volume, variation of CGT and crude price are the most significantly in Capesize sectors. In Panamax sectors, the influences of secondhand vessel price on variation of new building price, T/C hire, crude price, secondhand vessel transaction volume and demolition of vessel volume. In Supramax sectors, variation of T/C hire and CGT are the most significantly. In Handysize sectors, variation of new building price, T/C hire and demolition of vessel volume are the most significantly.
2. In analyzing purchase new building vessel or secondhand vessel, we use SP/NP ratio as a dependent variable. In Capesize sectors, secondhand vessel transaction volume and crude price are the most significantly. T/C hire is the most important variable in Panamax and Supramax. In Handysize sectors, T/C hire and demolition of vessel volume are the most significantly.
The findings in this research can serve as a good reference in making ship purchasing decisions for bulk shipping corporations, and will benefit bulk shipping corporations by helping them use the model for price evaluations.

謝誌 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii

目 錄 v
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 ix

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題與目的 4
1.3 研究方法與資料 6
1.4 研究架構 7
1.5 研究流程 8

第二章 文獻回顧與評析 10
2.1 航運市場與船舶買賣 10
2.2 市場運價與購船意願 12
2.3 購船時機與交易量 14
2.4 船舶價格與決定因素 15
2.5 研究方法相關文獻 19
2.6 綜合評析 20

第三章 船舶買賣現況分析 21
3.1 散裝航運市場 21
3.2 新船價格與供需 23
3.3 二手船舶價格與供需 25
3.4 新船價格與二手船舶價格關聯性 27

第四章 研究方法與資料 30
4.1 單根檢定 30
4.1.1 方法特性與採用理由 30
4.1.2 檢定分析內容 31
4.2 逐步迴歸分析 32
4.2.1 方法特性與採用理由 32
4.2.2 檢定分析內容 33
4.3 多元迴歸分析 34
4.3.1 方法特性與採用理由 34
4.3.2 檢定分析內容 34
4.4 資料與檢定 35

第五章 影響二手船舶價格因素分析 38
5.1 各船型逐步迴歸分析 38
5.2 各船型多元迴歸分析 39
5.2.1 海岬型船 39
5.2.2 巴拿馬極限型 40
5.2.3 超輕便極限型船 41
5.2.4 輕便型船 42
5.3 綜合討論 43

第六章 影響SP/NP比值變動因素分析 46
6.1 各船型逐步迴歸分析 46
6.2 各船型多元迴歸分析 47
6.2.1 海岬型船 47
6.2.2 巴拿馬極限型船 48
6.2.3 超輕便極限船型船 49
6.2.4 輕便船型船 50
6.3 綜合討論 51

第七章 結論與建議 53
7.1 結論 53
7.2 建議 55

參考文獻 56
【中文部分】 56
【英文部分】 56

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