由於全球化貿易和國際標準認證的欠缺，使得水產品的來源以及產地不容易辨認，這些問題在歐洲被高度關注，也讓產銷履歷制度再次受到重視 (Thompson et al., 2005)。雖然產銷履歷制度能夠解決水產品的來源以及產地問題，但事實上，實行產銷履歷有可能影響到國內消費者的購買意願，購買意願的高低會影響到國內消費者剩餘的變動；產銷履歷所需花費的成本亦有可能影響到國內生產者的生產意願，生產意願的高低會影響到國內生產者者剩餘的變動。有鑑於此，本研究以台灣養殖吳郭魚為例，首先建立台灣養殖吳郭魚供需函數，得到國內養殖吳郭魚的供需彈性，接著利用供需彈性分別建立運銷價差模型與小型開放經濟體系之下的經濟剩餘模型。在運銷價差模型方面主要分析零售商之邊際成本、寡賣力量、寡買力量與零售價格風險對於運銷價差的影響。在小型開放經濟體系之下的經濟剩餘模型方面，本研究假設兩種狀況，第一種狀況是水產品無論「有沒有產銷履歷認證皆可以出口」，例如美國、沙烏地阿拉伯等國；第二種狀況是水產品「無產銷履歷認證不可出口，有產銷履歷認證後才可出口」，例如歐盟等國，接著進行不同狀況之下的經濟效益分析，藉此評估台灣實行產銷履歷的可行性。
市場結構分析實證結果顯示，台灣吳郭魚市場為不完全競爭市場。運銷價差平均值為11.44288元/公斤，邊際成本平均值為1.13290元/公斤，佔當期價差比例為9.90051%；寡賣力量平均值為6.67176元/公斤，佔當期價差比例為58.30488%；寡買力量平均值為3.86462元/公斤，佔當期價差比例為33.77314%；零售價格風險平均值為-2.31588元/公斤，佔當期價差比例為-20.23596%。
台灣養殖吳郭魚產銷履歷之經濟效益分析結果顯示，在狀況一「有無產銷履歷皆可出口」之模式1-3「有產銷履歷後國內供給下降但需求上升」下，最大國內總福利為129794千元，上升比例為1999年至2007年國內吳郭魚消費金額88.06%；最小國內總福利為-7806千元，下降比例為1999年至2007年國內吳郭魚消費金額-5.30%。在狀況二「無產銷履歷不可出口，有產銷履歷才可出口」之模式2-4「有產銷履歷後國內供給下降但需求上升」下，最大國內總福利為22128千元，上升比例為1999年至2007年國內吳郭魚消費金額66.17%；最小國內總福利為-3890千元，下降比例為1999年至2007年國內吳郭魚消費金額-11.63%。


關鍵字：運銷價差、市場結構、市場力量、產銷履歷、經濟剩餘模型、經濟效益、養殖吳郭魚

Globalization of trade and the lack of international standards have made identifying the country of origin and the history of aquaculture products difficult. These concerns have recently been heightened in Europe that have made traceability a prominent topic (Thompson et al., 2005). In fact, traceability can solve the problem of the origin and history, but it may affect willing to buy and consumer surplus on domestic consumer; the cost may also affect willing to produce and producer surplus on domestic producer. Therefore, this research select aquaculture Tilapia as an example to establish demand and supply function to obtain demand and supply elasticity, then build up market margins model and economic surplus model by these two elasticity. In the market margins model, we mainly measure the influence of retailer’s marginal cost, oligopoly power, oligopsony power, and retail price risk to market margins. In the economic surplus model, we suppose that aquaculture Tilapia will face two situations, the first one is “all Tilapia can export, no matter have certification of traceability or not”, such as American and Saudi Arabia; the other one is “Tilapia can’t export unless it has certification of traceability”, such as European Union. We analyze economic benefits in different situation to evaluate the feasibility to execute traceability in Taiwan.
The result of market structure shows that Taiwan Tilapia market is non-competitive. The average value of market margins is 11.44288 NT dollars per kilogram. The average marginal cost is 1.13290 NT dollars per kilogram, which accounts for 9.90051% market margin. The average oligopoly power is 6.67176 NT dollars per kilogram, which accounts for 58.30488% market margin. The average oligopsony power is 3.86462 NT dollars per kilogram, which accounts for 33.77314% market margin. The average retail price risk is -2.31588 NT dollars per kilogram, which accounts for -20.23596% market margins.
The result of economic benefit of traceability in Taiwan aquaculture Tilapia shows that the maximum total benefits, under the first situation “all Tilapia can export no matter have certification of traceability or not” and 1-3 model “Internal supply is decreasing; demand is increasing when there is certification of traceability”, equal to 129794 NT thousand dollars, which account for 88.06% the amount of average consumption value of internal Tilapia in 1999 to 2007; the minimum total benefits equal to -7806 NT thousand dollars, which account for -5.30% the average amount of consumption value of internal Tilapia in 1999 to 2007. The maximum total benefits, under the second situation “Tilapia can’t export unless it has certification of traceability” and 2-4 model “Internal supply is decreasing; demand is increasing when there is certification of traceability”, equal to 22128 NT thousand dollars, which account for 66.17% the amount of average consumption value of internal Tilapia in 1999 to 2007; the minimum total benefits equal to -3890 NT thousand dollars, which account for -11.63% the amount of average consumption value of internal Tilapia in 1999 to 2007.


Key words: market margins, market structure, market power, traceability, economic surplus model, economic benefits, aquaculture Tilapia

謝辭 ....................................................i 中文摘要 ................................................ii
Abstract ...............................................iv
目錄 ....................................................vi
表次 ..................................................viii
圖次 ....................................................x
第壹章 緒論 ............................................. 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 .................................... 1
第二節 研究目的 ......................................... 4
第三節 研究方法與步驟 .....................................5
第四節 研究架構 ..........................................7
第貳章 產業現況分析 ..................................... 8
第一節 台灣養殖漁業發展概況 ............................... 8
第二節 國內產銷履歷現況 …................................ 13
第三節 小結 .............................................17
第參章 文獻回顧 .........................................18
第一節 市場結構與運銷價差之相關文獻.........................18
第二節 經濟剩餘模型之相關文獻...............................21
第三節 小結...............................................22
第肆章 理論模型之建立 ....................................23
第一節 運銷價差系統之理論模型...............................23
第二節 時間序列理論模型之建立...............................29
第三節 經濟剩餘模型之建立...................................32
第伍章 資料說明與實證模型之建立 ........................... 37
第一節 資料來源說明與處理 ..................................37
第二節 資料之敘述統計 .................................... 40
第三節 供需函數與運銷價差實證模型之建立......................44
第四節 台灣產銷履歷福利變動實證模型之建立.....................49
第陸章 實證結果分析 ......................................65
第一節 供需函數之實證結果.................................65
第二節 運銷價差系統之實證結果..............................74
第三節 台灣吳郭魚產銷履歷經濟效益之實證模擬結果..............79
第柒章 結論與建議 ........................................88
第一節 結論...............................................88
第二節 建議...............................................90
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向...............................92
參考文獻 ................................................ 93
附錄一：Bresnahan(1982)寡佔模型之寡佔係數(λ)導證.............97
附錄二：模式1-2、模式2-1、模式2-2、模式2-3經濟剩餘模型之數學證明.......................................................99

一、 中文部分
丁文郁、黃碩君、黃玲珠、陳燕慧、葉于嘉，2007，從產銷履歷看天下：讓新農業打造你的『食』尚感！，行政院農委會出版品。
吳天祥，2008，台灣漁產品「產銷履歷」制度之評估，國立台灣海洋大學碩士論文。
吳麗瑩與張原卿，2000，個體經濟學?－理論與應用，雙葉書廊有限公司出版。
楊奕農，2005，時間序列分析－經濟與財務上之應用，雙葉書廊有限公司出版。
楊景禎，2007，價格傳遞與運銷價差—台灣香蕉與鳳梨市場實證分析，國立台灣海洋大學碩士論文。
詹滿色，2008，水產品產銷履歷投資效益、貨源調配與產品拓銷模式之研究，行政院農業委員會97年度科技計畫研究報告。
蔡坤霖，2008，農業生物技術之潛在經濟效益分析—以台灣基改木瓜為例，國立台灣海洋大學碩士論文。
劉富光，2002，台灣加入WTO養殖漁業之出路，行政院農業委員會統計出版品(117)農政與農情。

二、 英文部分
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Bresnahan, T.F. (1982) “The Oligopoly Solution Concept is Identified.” Economics Letters. 10(1-2):87-92.
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Falck-Zepeda, J. B., G. Traxler, and R. G. Nelson. (2000a) “Surplus Distribution from the Introduction of a Biotechnology Innovation,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 82(2):360-369
Golan, Elise, Barry Krissoff, Fred Kuchler, Linda Calvin, Kenneth Nelson, and Gregory Price (2004) ”Traceability in the U.S. Food Supply : Economic Theory and Industry Studies,” USDA/Economic Research Service.
Hareau, G. G., B. F. Mills, and G. W. Norton. (2006) “The Potential Benefits of Herbicide-resistant Transgenic Rice in Uruguay: Lessons for Small Developing Countries,” Food Policy. 31(2):162-179.
Ljung, G. M. and B. E. P. Box. (1978) “On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Model,” Biometrika. 65(2):297-303.
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Thompson, M., G. Sylvia, and M. T. Morrissey (2005) “Seafood Traceability in the United states : Current Trends, System Design, and Potential Applications,” Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety.

三、 網際網路部分
台灣農產品安全追溯資訊網TAFT(Taiwan Agriculture and Food Traceability System)，http://taft.coa.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=8&role=C&mpap=A。
台灣漁產品行銷網，http://www.aptcm.com/FISH/km.nsf/ByUNID/3E18C52888B2665748256B82001F84A9?opendocument。
行政院農委會，http://www.coa.gov.tw/show_index.php。
行政院衛生署消費者資訊網，http://consumer.doh.gov.tw/fdaciw/pages/index.jsp。
國立海洋生物博物館，http://seafood.nmmba.gov.tw/Default.aspx。
環境資訊中心(Taiwan Environmental Information Center)，http://e-info.org.tw/。