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研究生:洪圭永
研究生(外文):Gyu-Young Hong
論文名稱:入口網站的企業評價:NHN與PCHOME的個案分析比較
論文名稱(外文):Corporate Valuation on Internet Portals : A Comparative Case Study on NHN And PCHOME
指導教授:陳明賢陳明賢引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ming-Shen Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:財務金融學研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:97
語文別:英文
論文頁數:79
中文關鍵詞:現金流量折現法企業評價NHN網路家庭瘦訊服務
外文關鍵詞:DCFValuationNHNPCHOMESearch Service
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中文摘要


本論文是以財務報表及網路使用量兩方面來做韓國與、台灣入口網站的個案分析比較。文章裡我主張舊的方法—股票價格是測試未來公司可產生現金能力的合理方法。

依研究經驗,我主張使用現金流量折現模式,和研究對象是選擇兩家分別在自己國內股票市場上市的入口網站-韓國的NHN和台灣的PCHOME。最重要的是這篇論文提供對於實際履行DCF模型的深入探討。 評估各種模型內的因子為使用原本模型中最重要的挑戰。因而我以市場趨勢ˋ公司將來的利潤預測及WACC來改善企業評價。此外我在NHN及PCHOME的企業評價上來闡明延伸的論點。

值得注意的是,儘管現在許多網路公司高於市場平均的股價,在會計上的所得卻呈現負成長。在這些樣的環境之下,我運用以產業對手測試比較方法。DCF模型分析結果顯示目前股價仍屬合理以及具高預測能力。

最後,再以NHN與PCHOME的搜尋服務分析來比較兩家的市場表現,結果表示搜尋服務可為網路公司帶來較高的價值。
Abstract

This paper is designed primarily to investigate Korea and Taiwan internet portals to provide insights into the manner in which accounting information, along with measures of internet usage, is employed in the valuation of internet firms and provide a comparative study on their valuation. In this paper, I claim that the old rules still apply. The way to test the reasonableness of new economy stock prices is to model the company''s ability to generate cash in the future.


For the empirical study, I employ the DCF valuation model and select two internet portals, one Korean company – NHN – and one Taiwanese internet company – PCHOME –, both are listed on the respective stock exchange – KOSDAQ and Taiwan Stock Exchange. Perhaps more importantly, this paper offers insights into the practical implementation of the DCF model. An important challenge to implementing the original model is estimating the various parameters of the model. So for more accurate analysis, we separately analyze their business units, E-business, online game and the portal (display ad or keyword ad) in our sample. Therefore, we improve the valuation by forecasting market trend and companies’ future earnings, and by inferring the WACC from the observed the companies’ stocks. We illustrate these extensions in a valuation of the companies, NHN and PCHOME.


Furthermore, many of the internet companies generate negative accounting income in spite of high stock price. Given these circumstances, the comparative approach for valuation with industry peers is conducted in a later part. Those analysis results show that the DCF model gives the reasonableness of their current stock prices and so indicates the high forecast capacity. As the last part, search service of NHN and PCHOME is analyzed to compare their current market performance and it suggests that search service could bring high value of internet portal.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgment ⅲ
中文摘要 iv
Abstract v
Table of contents vi
List of Figure ix
List of Table xi
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Motivation 2
1.3 Objective 2

2. Selection of Valuation Models 5
2.1 Theoretical Research of Corporate Valuation 5
2.1.1 Theoretical Background 5
2.1.1.1 Income Approach 6
2.1.1.2 Relative Valuation method 6
2.1.1.3 Option Evaluation Method 7
2.1.2 Importance of Business Valuation 7
2.1.3 Difficulties in evaluating Internet Company 8
2.1.3.1 Income Approach 8
2.1.3.2 Market Method 9
2.1.3.3 Option Evaluation Method 9
2.2. Selection of Valuation Models 9
2.2.1 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method 10
2.2.2 Comparable approach 11
2.2.2.1 Price to Sales Ratio 11
2.2.2.2 Price-to-Earnings Ratio 12
2.2.2.3 Price-to-book ratio 13

3. General Introduction of Internet business and Analysis of Internet Market 14
3.1 The Internet Economy 14
3.1.1 Internet Business 14
3.1.2 What is the portal industry? 16
3.2 Special Features of Internet Industry 16
3.2.1 Evolution 17
3.2.2 Cultural Ripple Effect 17
3.2.3 Media’s Characteristic 17
3.2.4 Destruction of ordinary managerial paradigm 17
3.2.5 Destruction of industry life cycle 17
3.2.6 First mover’s advantage and its business scale 18
3.3 Selection of Internet companies and analysis of online market situation 18
3.3.1 Selection of Internet companies for valuation 18
3.3.2 NHN 19
3.3.2.1 Search 22
3.3.2.2 Advertising 22
3.3.2.3 Game 22
3.3.2.4 E-Commerce 23
3.3.3 PCHOME Online Inc. 23
3.3.3.1 E-Commerce 24
3.3.3.2 Portal Access 26
3.3.3.3 VOIP 26
3.4 Analysis of Korea Internet Market 27
3.4.1 E-commerce 27
3.4.2 Korea Portal Industry 29
3.4.3 Korea Online Game Industry 30
3.4.4 Online Advertising 32
3.5 Analysis of Taiwan Internet Market 34
3.5.1 E-business of Taiwan 34
3.5.2 Online advertising 37

4. Corporate Valuation 39
4.1 Analysis of Company 39
4.1.1 NHN 39
4.1.1.1 Keyword Advertising: Core driver 39
4.1.1.2 Display Advertising 40
4.1.1.3 Online Game: Reliable Cash Cow 40
4.1.1.4 E-Commerce 42
4.1.1.5 WACC 44
4.1.2 PCHOME 45
4.1.2.1 E-Commerce 45
4.1.2.2 Portal 46
4.1.2.3 VOIP 47
4.1.2.4 WACC 48
4.2 DCF Valuation 50
4.3 Comparative Valuation 52
4.3.1 NHN 52
4.3.2 PCHOME 55
4.4 Analysis of NHN and PCHOME’s Search Services 55
4.4.1 NHN 56
4.4.1.1 NAVER’s manual operation and Integrated search 57
4.4.1.2 Knowledge iN 57
4.4.2 PCHOME 59
4.4.2.1 Drive E-commerce 59
4.4.2.2 Lost keyword advertising 59
4.4.2.3 Different business model 61
4.5 Integrated Search 62
4.5.1 Benefits of integrated/ universal/ blended Search 64
4.6 Suggestion to PCHOME from NHN’s Success 65
4.6.1 Quick response of social issues 66
4.6.2 Increasing Traffic 66
4.6.3 More utilized Search Service 68
4.6.4 Study on Universal and Non-Universal Search Result 68
4.6.5 User preference in Blended Search 70

5. Result and Conclusion 71
5.1 Valuation Result 71
5.1.1 NHN 71
5.1.2 PCHOME 72
5.2 Conclusion 73
5.3 Difficulty & Limitation of Study 73
5.4 Direction of Future Study 75
Reference 77
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