臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Abstract
This study aims at identifying the sources of productivity growth for corn in eleven South African economies. The Malmquist productivity growth index and its two components are calculated and regressed on various variables including fertilizer use intensity, irrigation use intensity, agricultural labor intensity, and openness to international trade. The empirical evidence suggests that the economies in the region are largely inefficient and can raise output by at least 22.4 percent and at most 62.2 percent without altering the current level of inputs and type of technologies. The results further indicate that the major source of productivity growth is technical progress rather than efficiency change. The second stage regression results show that the source of TFP change over time is mainly due to investments in fertilizer use intensity and irrigation.

Abstract
This study aims at identifying the sources of productivity growth for corn in eleven South African economies. The Malmquist productivity growth index and its two components are calculated and regressed on various variables including fertilizer use intensity, irrigation use intensity, agricultural labor intensity, and openness to international trade. The empirical evidence suggests that the economies in the region are largely inefficient and can raise output by at least 22.4 percent and at most 62.2 percent without altering the current level of inputs and type of technologies. The results further indicate that the major source of productivity growth is technical progress rather than efficiency change. The second stage regression results show that the source of TFP change over time is mainly due to investments in fertilizer use intensity and irrigation.

Contents
CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 1
INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION OF THE STUDY ................................................................... 1
1.1 Motivation ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Objectives of the study .............................................................................................................. 3
1.3 Outline of the thesis .................................................................................................................. 4
CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................................ 6
BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................................... 6
2.1 Economies ...................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 Production share in South African economies ................................................................................ 9
2.3 Importance of rain-fed agriculture .................................................................................................. 9
2.4 Country level yield comparison .................................................................................................... 10
2.5 Characteristics of corn farming in Malawi .................................................................................... 14
2.6 Corn shortage and stagnant yield in Malawi ................................................................................. 17
2.7 Soaring global corn price offers opportunities to farmers ............................................................ 21
CHAPTER 3 .............................................................................................................................................. 23
LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................................... 23
3.1 Productivity measures in the world ............................................................................................... 23
3.2 Total factor productivity studies in Africa .................................................................................... 24
3.3 Previous productivity studies in selected South African economies ............................................. 25
3.4 Measuring sources of productivity change in Malawi .................................................................. 27
CHAPTER 4 .............................................................................................................................................. 29
DATA AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 29
4.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 29
4.2 Data .............................................................................................................................................. 31
CHAPTER 5 .............................................................................................................................................. 40
EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 40
5.1 Malmquist Productivity Indexes ................................................................................................... 40
5.2 Identifying high and low growth economies ................................................................................. 41
5.3 Regional corn production frontier ................................................................................................. 55
5.4 Second stage regression results ..................................................................................................... 57
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CHAPTER 6 .............................................................................................................................................. 66
CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 66
6.1 The study approach ....................................................................................................................... 66
6.2 The results .................................................................................................................................... 66
6.3 Policy implications for South African economies ........................................................................ 67
REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 69
APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................................ 73
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List of figures
Figure 1.1 Population growth rate, 2000-2005 ...................................................................................... 1
Figure 1.2 Food production per capita indexes, 1999-2001 ................................................................... 1
Figure 1.3 Outline of the thesis .............................................................................................................. 5
Figure 2.1 Country level agricultural share (%) of GDP, 2000 ............................................................. 7
Figure 2.2 GDP per capita in constant US dollars, 2001-2005 .............................................................. 8
Figure 2.3 Share of total production of corn, average 1975-2005 ......................................................... 9
Figure 2.4 Mean area irrigated in 2001-2003…………………………………………………………..10
Figure 2.5 Corn mean yield, 1975-2005………………………………………………………………..11
Figure 2.6 Yield in four selected economies….………………………………………………………...12
Figure 2.7 Corn sufficiency ratios in southern Africa, 1975-2005……………………………………..13
Figure 2.8 Corn sufficiency ratios in Malawi and South Africa, 1975-2005…………………………...14
Figure 2.9 Distribution of land area among crops in Malawi, 2005……………………………………15
Figure 2.10 Area planted with maize in Malawi, 1975-2005…………………………………………..16
Figure 2.11 Tobacco area harvested in Malawi, 1975-2005……………………………………………16
Figure 2.12 Maize and Tobacco producer prices in Malawi, 1991-2006……………………………....17
Figure 2.13 Cereals-aid from all donors to Malawi, 1975-2005……………………………………….18
Figure 2.14 Malawi corn sufficiency situation, 2005…………………………………………………..19
Figure 2.15 Corn sufficiency trend in Malawi, 1975-2005…………………………………………….20
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Figure 2.16 Corn imports and exports in Malawi, 1975-2005……………………………………..…...20
Figure 2.17 Maize yields in Malawi and South Africa, 1975-2005…………………………………….21
Figure 2.18 Malawi maize producer price, 1991-2005…………………………………………………22
Figure 4.1 Southern Africa average area harvested with corn………………………………………….36
Figure 4.2 Number of tractors available for corn, 1975-2005………………………………………….36
Figure 4.3 Urea fertilizer price in South Africa, 1976-2005……………………………………………39
Figure 5.1 Summary of Malmquist TFP index and the two components, 1975-2005………………….40
Figure 5.2 TFP growth rate, 1975-2005……………………………………………………………...…42
Figure 5.3 Country cumulative TFP change and its components, 1975-2005………………………….44
Figure 5.4 High TFP growth economies cumulative TFP, 1975-2005…………………………………50
Figure 5.5 Low growth economies cumulative TFP, 1975-2005………………………………………50
Figure 5.6 Changes in DEA frontier over time……..…………………………………………………..57
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List of tables
Table 1.1 Undernourishment status for the period 2002-2004 ................................................................ 2
Table 2.1GDP per capita in constant US dollars, 2001-2005 .................................................................. 8
Table 3.1 Sources of TFP growth in selected economies ...................................................................... 28
Table 4.1 Average corn production and growth rates, 1975-2005 ......................................................... 34
Table 4.2 Average are harvested with corn and growth rates, 1976-2005 ............................................. 35
Table 4.3 Average number of tractors available for corn farming, 1976-2005 ..................................... 37
Table 4.4 Average amount of seeds available for corn farming, 1976-2005...…………………………38
Table 5.1 Regional summary of Malmquist indexes growth rates, 1976-2005………………………...41
Table 5.2 TFP growth intensity…………………………………………………………………………43
Table 5.3 Sources of TFP growth …………………………………………………………………...…49
Table 5.4 Mean efficiency change and technical change, 1975-2005……………………………….…51
Table 5.5 Cumulative TFP growth rate, 1976-2005……………………………………………………52
Table 5.6 Identifying the effect of period on TFP change…………………………………………...…53
Table 5.7 Average cumulative TFP change, 1976-2005………………………………………………..58
Table 5.8 Agricultural labor intensity, 1975-2005……………………………………………………...59
Table 5.9 Openness, 1975-2005………………………………………………………………………...60
Table 5.10 Irrigation use intensity, 1975-2005…………………………………………………………61
Table 5.11 fertilizer use intensity, 1975-2005……………………………………………………….…61
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Table 5.12 Regression results………………………………………………………………………..…62
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List of maps
Map 2.1 South African economies ...................................................................................................... …..

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