臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

受到1982/83年超級聖嬰之衝擊，熱帶大氣與海洋交互作用成為大氣科學領域的研究焦點；同時間，它也刺激了動力氣候學的快速發展，以及隨後大氣海洋耦合模式和氣候系統模式的出現。儘管我們對聖嬰/南方震盪（ENSO）這類短期氣候變化的機制已有相當程度的瞭解，對於其他較長週期的氣候變化的成因，仍然缺乏足夠的理解，其主因為缺乏長時間、大範圍的大氣和海洋觀測資料。近幾年來，高品質的大氣與海溫再分析資料陸續出現，其資料長度往往超過4、50年，科學家得以注意到另一較長週期現象-「年代震盪」。由於年代震盪與年際震盪於太平洋地區有相似空間特徵，部分研究認為它是ENSO的長週期循環特徵。
為瞭解太平洋地區「年代震盪」和ENSO間之關係，本文分析長時間大氣與海洋再分析資料。研究結果發現，「年代震盪」和ENSO在太平洋地區有相似之海溫和風場變異特徵；然兩者間亦有部分差異，例如前者主要變異中心位於北太平洋，而後者則位於熱帶東太平洋。此外，「年代震盪」對ENSO週期與強度有顯著之影響，在「冷年代」，反聖嬰強度較強；反之，在「暖年代」，強烈聖嬰發生頻率增加，其持續時間較長。除海表面溫度外，分析JEDAC次表層海溫資料也發現，「年代震盪」於熱帶地區之海溫變化與年際震盪相似，僅振幅偏弱而已。
本文利用奇異值分解法（Singular Value Decomposition），發展一套經驗大氣模式，詳細校驗顯示，此經驗大氣模式能相當程度地成功模擬出大氣近地面風場對海溫變化之反應，其中又以熱帶地區模擬結果較佳。將此經驗大氣模式和簡單的Cane-Zebiak海洋模式耦合後之實驗顯示，此耦合模式已有能力模擬出熱帶太平洋地區年際震盪部分特徵，本研究透過此簡單耦合模式針對西風爆發與不均勻海氣耦合作用對年際變化機制之影響討論。由實驗結果進一步證實，西風爆發對於ENSO事件是有提早ENSO發生與增強ENSO震幅之影響。但並不會導致東太平洋邊界之暖海水有鎖住現象而延長ENSO週期，因此對於ENSO週期變化並不明顯。此外，本研究透過參數化計算得知，熱帶西太平洋地區由於濕穩定度較熱帶太平洋地區低，故該區海氣交互作用程度較其他地區強，因此藉由增強西太平洋地區海氣耦合作用實驗可知，西太平洋海氣交互作用雖不是產生大氣場西風爆發之主因，但其會直接影響中、東太平洋地區海氣耦合作用，增強東太平洋邊界延遲震盪效應，進而改變ENSO發生之振幅與週期變化。在暖年代時期，熱帶太平洋地區之濕穩定度較一般氣候值低，使得海氣間交互作用更為強烈，由此更有助於增強與增長暖年代之ENSO事件之振幅與週期。
為進一步瞭解「年代震盪」維持機制，本文採用於空間有較高解析度且物理參數化較複雜及完備之海洋環流模式，Parallel Ocean Program(POP)模式，模擬海洋對於純年代風場驅動之反應。數值模擬結果顯示，在熱帶地區出現與觀測相似之年代海溫增溫特徵，在垂直結構上亦與觀測相似，且有更明顯之年代變化特徵。藉由表面熱能收支分析發現，熱帶太平洋地區海溫年代震盪與信風帶減弱，導致海表層熱量散失減少有關。我們初步推論，「年代震盪」在熱帶地區應伴隨有顯著之海氣交互作用；然在中緯度地區，海洋僅被動地反應大氣變化。此外，本章透過Community Climate System Model （CCSM）模式模擬太平洋地區海洋年代變化特徵，探討海氣交互作用對於年代震盪之影響。透過模式模擬與能量收支發現，熱帶和中緯度地區年代震盪維持機制有些差異，在熱帶地區，海氣交互作用扮演維持年代震盪關鍵角色；在中緯度地區，除了海氣交互作用外，大氣橋（atmospheric bridge）在北太平洋地區增加阿留申低壓強度，進而加強表面熱通量散失（透過可感熱形式），也扮演不可忽視之角色。

論 文 目 錄
摘要……………………………………………… ……………………Ⅰ
致謝…………………………………………………… ………………Ⅲ
簡歷…………………………………………………… ………………Ⅳ
論文目錄………………………………………… ……………………Ⅵ
圖表說明…………………………………… …………………………Ⅷ
第一章、前言……………………………………………………………01
1.1、研究動機與目的………………………………………………01
1.2、文獻回顧………………………………………………………04
1.3、論文架構………………………………………………………08
第二章、資料來源、研究方法、與模式介紹……………………………09
2.1 資料來源………………………………………………………09
2.2 研究方法………………………………………………………10
2.3 數值模式簡介…………………………………………………17
第三章、數值模式校驗…………………………………………………28
3.1 經驗大氣模式…………………………………………………28
3.2簡單混合型耦合模式…………………………………………38
3.3 POP海洋環流模式……………………………………………43
3.4 CCSM氣候系統模式…………………………………………50
第四章、太平洋年際震盪：簡單耦合模式實驗…………………56
4.1 觀測資料分析…………………………………………………56
4.2 西風爆發與不均勻海氣交互作用……………………………68
4.3小結… …………………………………………………………81
第五章、太平洋年代震盪：海洋模式模擬……………………………82
5.1 觀測資料分析…………………………………………………82
5.2表層能量收支分析………………………………… …………88
5.3小結………………………………………………… …………93
第六章、太平洋年代震盪：耦合模式模擬………………………95
6.1太平洋年代震盪特徵…………………………………………95
6.2表面能量收支分析……………………………………………97
6.3小結……………………………………………………………102
第七章、總結與討論…………………………………………………103
7.1觀測資料分析…………………………………………………103
7.2年際震盪機制探討……………………………………………104
7.3年代震盪機制探討……………………………………………105
7.4討論與未來工作………………………………………………106
參考文獻………………………………………………………………108
附錄A：相對均方根誤差……………………………………………114
附錄B：距平相關係數………………………………………………115
附錄C：Parallel Ocean Program (POP)模式設定簡表……………116

參 考 文 獻
張振瑋，余嘉裕，2003：大氣海洋系統年際變異度之初步分析。華岡理科學報，20, 209-228。
張振瑋，余嘉裕，2005：大氣與海洋年代震盪特徵分析。大氣科學，33,321-340。
盧孟明，麥如俊，2003：台灣與全球雨量長期變化研究（一）1920-1995變化趨勢。大氣科學，31,119-219。
盧孟明，麥如俊，2004：台灣與全球雨量長期變化研究（二）亞澳季風區一至三月雨量年際變化。大氣科學，31,307-330。
Alexander, M. A., C. Deser, and M. S. Timlin, 1998: The Reemergence of SST Anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 12, 2419–2433.
Anderson, J., H. M. Van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: present-Day Capabilities of Numerical and Statistical Models for Atmosphere Extratropical Seasonal Simulation and Prediction. Bull. Ame. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1349-1361.
An, S.I., and B. Wang, 2000: Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO Frequency. J. Climate, 12, 2044–2055.
An, S.I., and F.F. Jin, 2001: Collective Role of Thermocline and Zonal Advective Feedbacks in the ENSO Mode. J. Climate, 14, 3421–3432.
Battisti, D.S., and A.C. Hirst, 1989: Interannual Variability in a Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean Model: Influence of the Basic State, Ocean Geometry and Nonlinearity . J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1687–1712.
Belamari, S., J.L. Redelsperger, and M. Pontaud, 2003: Dynamic Role of a Westerly Wind Burst in Triggering an Equatorial Pacific Warm Event. J. Climate, 16, 1869–1890.
Betts, A.K., 1985: Vector Representation of Trade Cumulus Thermodynamic Fluxes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 2173–2175.
Biondi, F., A. Gershunov, and D. R. Cayan, 2001: North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. J. Climate, 14, 5-10.
Brankovic, C., and T. N. Palmer, 2000:Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensemble. Quart.J.Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2035-2067.
Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An inter-comparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate, 5, 541-560.
Chang, C.P., Y. Zhang, and T. Li, 2000: Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the Subtropical Ridge. J. Climate, 13, 4310–4325.
Chang, P., L. Ji, and R. Saravanan, 2001: A Hybrid Coupled Model Study of Tropical Atlantic Variability. J. Climate, 14, 361–390.
Collins, W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack, T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl, W.G. Large, D.S. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006: The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). J. Climate, 19, 2122–2143.
Deser, C. and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: On the Relationship between Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variations. J. Climate, 8, 1677–1680.
Eisenman, I., L. Yu, and E. Tziperman, 2005: Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO’s Tail Rather than the Dog? J. Climate, 18, 5224–5238.
Fedrov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2000: Is El Nino changing? Science, 228, 1997-2002.
Fedorov, A.V., S.L. Harper, S.G. Philander, B. Winter, and A. Wittenberg, 2003: How Predictable is El Niño? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 911–919.
Francis, R. C., and D. E. Harrison, 1994: Decadal-scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystem of the Northeast Pacific: a case for historical science. Fish. Oceanogr., 3, 279-291.
Gershunov, A., and T. Barnett, 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2715–2725.
Graham, N. E., 1994: Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Clim. Dyn., 10, 135-162.
Gu, D., and S. G. Philander, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchange between the tropics and extratropics. Science, 275, 805-807.
Gulev, S.K., B. Barnier, H. Knochel, J.M. Molines, and M. Cottet, 2003: Water Mass Transformation in the North Atlantic and Its Impact on the Meridional Circulation: Insights from an Ocean Model Forced by NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis Surface Fluxes. J. Climate, 16, 3085–3110.
Hartten, L. M., 1996: Synoptic settings of westerly wind bursts. J.Geophys. Res., 101, 16 997–17 019.
Ho, C.-H., J.-J. Baik, J.-H. Kim, D.-Y. Gong, and C.-H. Sui, 2003: Interdecadal change in summertime typhoon tracks. J. Climate, 17, 1767-1776.
Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the South Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829
Huang, B., P.H. Stone, A.P. Sokolov, and I.V. Kamenkovich, 2003: Ocean Heat Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Mechanisms and Uncertainty due to Subgrid-Scale Eddy Mixing. J. Climate, 16, 3344–3356.
Hung, J.-W., H.-H. Hsu, and M.-M. Lu, 2004: Decadal oscillation of spring rain in northern Taiwan. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L22206
Kiehl, J.T., C.A. Shields, J.J. Hack, and W.D. Collins, 2006: The Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). J. Climate, 19, 2584–2596..
Kleeman, R., J. McCreary, and B. Klinger, 1999: A mechanism for generating ENSO decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1743-1746.
Jin, F. F., 1997: A Theory of Interdecadal Climate Variability of the North Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere System *. J. Climate, 10, 1821–1835.
Lau, N.C., and M.J. Nath, 1996: The Role of the “Atmospheric Bridge” in Linking Tropical Pacific ENSO Events to Extratropical SST Anomalies. J. Climate, 9, 2036–2057.
Latif, M., 1998: Dynamics of Interdecadal Variability in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models. J. Climate, 11, 602–624.
Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634-637.
Latif, M., and T. Barnett, 1996: Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and Predictability. J. Climate, 9, 2407–2423.
Lau, K.M., and H. Weng, 1998:Interannual, Decadal-Interdecadal,and Global Warming Signals in Sea Surface Temperature during 1955-97. J. Climate, 12, 1257-1267.
Miller, A. J., D. R. Cayan, T. P. Barnett, N. E. Graham, and J. M. Oberhuber, 1993: Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Climate Dynamics,9, 287-302
Newman, M., G.P. Compo, and M.A. Alexander, 2003: ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J. Climate, 16, 3853–3857.
Rasmusson, E., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nino. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
Reynolds, R.W., and T.M. Smith, 1994: Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929–948.
Schopf, P.S., and M.A. Cane, 1983: On Equatorial Dynamics, Mixed Layer Physics and Sea Surface Temperature. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 917–935.
Seiki, A., and Y.N. Takayabu, 2007: Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with Intraseasonal Variations and ENSO. Part I: Statistics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3325–3345.
Shen, C., W.-C. Wang, W. Gong, and Z. Ho, 2006: A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03702.
Syu, H.-H., and J. D. Neelin, 1995: Seasonal and interannual variability in a hybrid coupled GCM. J. Climate, 8, 2121-2143.
Trenberth, K. E., 1990: Recent observed interdedacal climate changes in the northern hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 988-993.
Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim. Dyn., 9, 303-319.
Wang, C., and R.H. Weisberg, 2000: The 1997–98 El Niño Evolution Relative to Previous El Niño Events. J. Climate, 13, 488–501.
Wu, L., Z. Liu, R. Gallimore, R. Jacob, D. Lee, and Y. Zhong, 2003: Pacific Decadal Variability: The Tropical Pacific Mode and the North Pacific Mode. J. Climate, 16, 1101–1120.
Xu, W., T.P. Barnett, and M. Latif, 1998: Decadal Variability in the North Pacific as Simulated by a Hybrid Coupled Model. J. Climate, 11, 297–312.
Yeh, S.W., J.G. Jhun, I.S. Kang, and B.P. Kirtman, 2004: The Decadal ENSO Variability in a Hybrid Coupled Model. J. Climate, 17, 1225–1238.
Yu, J.Y., and J.D. Neelin, 1997: Analytic Approximations for Moist Convectively Adjusted Regions. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1054–1063.
Zhang, R.H., A.J. Busalacchi, and D.G. DeWitt, 2008: The Roles of Atmospheric Stochastic Forcing (SF) and Oceanic Entrainment Temperature (Te) in Decadal Modulation of ENSO. J. Climate, 21, 674–704.
Zhang, X., J. Sheng, and A. Shabbar, 1998, Modes of Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Pacific SST. J. Climate, 11, 2556–2569.
Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Batisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.
Suarez, M.J., and P.S. Schopf, 1988: A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283–3287.