臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本次研究期望以台灣加入亞洲共同貨幣後所生之匯率變動，導致台灣總體經濟的影響，並與新台幣兌美元匯率(NTD/USD)對台灣總體經濟的影響相比較，藉以推論台灣加入亞洲共同貨幣是否對台灣有利。因此在研究之前，須建構之虛擬亞洲共同貨幣(AUR)，且計算出AUR兌美元匯率。接著，建立向量自我迴歸模型，並觀察衝擊反應函數及變異數分解結果，以了解AUR/USD及NTD/USD匯率變動，對主要總體經濟變數如：國內生產毛額、出口總額、進口總額、物價指數等之影響。
由實證結果得知，當AUR/USD匯率變動時，價格因素對我國貿易未有顯著影響；NTD/USD匯率波動對我國貿易卻有顯著之影響。當AUR/USD匯率升值時，遞延產生的匯率轉嫁效果，使得國內進口物價下降，間接造成國內物價水準下降。依據衝突反應函數的結果可知，AUR/USD之匯兌波動對我國各項經濟因素的衝擊幅度，小於NTD/USD匯率波動對我國經濟因素的影響。由此推論，若亞洲共同貨幣成立時，台灣能加入其中，將有利於我國的貿易競爭力，並有利於對國內物價之控制。

In order to deduce whether Taiwan will benefit by joining Asian Union Rate (AUR), the research compares the macroeconomic influences by the exchange rate changes of Taiwan dollars (NTD) after joining the AUR with that by the exchange rate changes of NTD to USD.

First of all, we constructed an AUR hypothesis and then calculated AUR exchange rate to USD. Then, we established the vector self-regression model, and observed the impact response function and the variance decomposition, in order to realize the impacts by changing the exchange rate AUR and NTD on the major macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, the gross amount of import/ export, price index,…etc.

The conclusion of the real diagnosis is that Taiwan’s international trade will not be influenced obviously by the fluctuations in the exchange rate of AUR to USD, but it will be impacted remarkably by the fluctuations in the exchange rate of NTD to USD. While the exchange rate of AUR to USD appreciates, the prices of import commodities will fall. Due to the exchange rate pass-through effect, it will result in the domestic price level to fall as well. Per the result of the conflict respond function, the influence on Taiwan’s economy caused by the exchange rate fluctuation of AUR to USD is smaller than that caused by the exchange rate fluctuation of NTD to USD.

Therefore, it will be help to enhance Taiwan’s competitive power on international business and to be easier to control the domestic price level if AUR is established and Taiwan joins this economic organization.

第一章 研究動機及目的.............................1

第二章 文獻探討...................................3

第一節 區域內國家是建立共同通貨區，應思考之層面.....3
第二節 最適通貨區...................................4
第三節 東亞地區的經濟與金融合作之發展..............10
第四節 東亞地區的經濟與金融合作之歷程..............11
第五節 成立亞洲共同貨幣所面臨的匯率制度問題........17
第六節 亞洲匯率協調與貨幣合作......................23
第七節 預期亞洲共同貨幣的發展步驟..................24
第八節 亞洲共同貨幣的相關研究......................26
第九節 匯率對一國經濟的影響........................27
第十節 文獻探討小結................................29

第三章 研究方法........................... .......30

第一節 研究架構....................................30
第二節 亞洲共同貨幣的建構..........................32
第三節 研究模型設定................................38

第四章 實證結果及分析.............................48

第一節 建構亞洲共同貨幣............................48
第二節 單根檢定及落後期數的選擇....................49
第三節 向量自我迴歸模型(VAR).......................53
第四節 衝擊反應函數結果............................56
第五節 預測誤差變異數分解結果......................58
第六節 新台幣匯率變動對總體經濟的影響..............60

第五章 結論.......................................66

參考文獻...........................................68

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