臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

景氣循環是經濟學家所探討的主要課題之一，一般而言，消費、投資、總要素生產力、產能利用率等經濟因素與景氣循環呈現高的同向移動關係；至於廠商的經營效率，是否也和景氣循環具有同向移動的關係？本文使用台灣上市電子六類產業、六年共計七期的單季資料，探討廠商在「網路泡沫」( 1999Q1 - 2001Q4 )與「金融海嘯」( 2006Q3 - 2009Q1 )兩次景氣從高峰走向谷底時期，產出與投入的變動狀況、相對績效的變動狀況以及總效率、純技術效率、規模效率的變動。
本文所使用的績效評估方式為資料包絡分析法( DEA )與生產力變動指數分析法( Malmquist Productivity Index )並使用Wilcoxon 符號等級檢定( Wilcoxon signed rank test )進行廠商在景氣衰退期前與景氣衰退期之經營效率比較分析。實證結果發現：(1)相較於其他電子產業，「半導體業」在景氣衰退時相對效率、總效率、純技術效率上出現與景氣循環同步下降的情形。(2)廠商在景氣衰退時期營業收入淨額皆由正轉負，「金融海嘯」時期尤其顯著。(3)台灣電子產業的相對效率，依產業別而有所不同，且沒有統計上顯著的證據顯示景氣衰退與所有產業的相對效率皆有同向的關聯性。(4)整體而言，景氣進入衰退期，廠商的總效率不一定會同步轉差。(5)純技術效率的變動亦因產業別而有所不同。但相較於總效率變動，純技術效率較易受景氣影響而轉為較差的方向。(6)規模效率在「金融海嘯」的衰退時期為顯著增加，顯示廠商在產出顯著減少的情況下，投入項的調整會較為積極，導致規模效率轉佳。

Business cycle is one of the most popular issuess among economists. Generelly speaking, busincess cycle reveals high positive correlartion with economic factors such as consumption, investment, total factor productivity, capacity utilization…etc. Does the operating efficiency of firms exist the same correlation with business cycle? In this article, I analyzed six-year data and focused my research on seven quarters by observing how firms covering six core categories in the electronic industry in Taiwan varied among outputs, inputs, relative efficiency, total efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency during the two periods “dot-com bubble” ( 1999Q1 - 2001Q4 ) and “financial tsunami” ( 2006Q3 - 2009Q1 ), in which the business cycle moved from peak to trough specifically.
In this research, I used DEA and Malmquist Productivity Index to compare the operating efficiency of firms before and during recessions and further applied Wilcoxon signed rank test to statistically verify the outcomes. The results are: (i) The relative efficiency, total efficiency, pure technical efficiency of firms in semi-conductor industry declined corresponding to recessions. (ii) The net operating income of firms turned from positive to negative during recessions; this phenomenon was especially obvious during the financial tsunami period. (iii) The relative efficiency differs from each category in the electronic industry in Taiwan; there is no significant evidence to prove the co-correlation between recessions and compatative efficiency. (iv) Overall speaking, the total efficiency of firms are not necessarily worse during recessions. (v) The pure technical efficiency also differs from each category; nevertheless, the pure technical efficiency is more inclined to be negetively affected by recessions. (vi) The scale efficiency increased significantly during the financial tsunami period, revealing that firms enhanced their scale efficiency by actively adjusting the inputs in corresponds to the significant decrease in outputs.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景和動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 本文架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 景氣循環相關理論 5
第二節 景氣循環與經營績效相關文獻 9
第三節 電子產業績效相關文獻 14
第三章 研究方法 19
第一節 效率衡量方法 19
第二節 資料包絡分析法 21
第三節 WILCOXOM符號等級檢定 34
第四章 實證結果與分析 35
第一節 研究資料說明 35
第二節 研究變數選擇說明 40
第三節 實證結果分析 45
第五章 結論與研究建議 56
第一節 結論 56
第二節 後續研究建議 58
參考文獻 59
附錄 63

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