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研究生:林凱樂
研究生(外文):Marcelo Berti Lungo
論文名稱:Epidemiology of the Homicides in El Salvador
論文名稱(外文):Epidemiology of the Homicides in El Salvador
指導教授:藍忠孚藍忠孚引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chung-Fu Lan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立陽明大學
系所名稱:公共衛生研究所
學門:醫藥衛生學門
學類:公共衛生學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:英文
論文頁數:172
中文關鍵詞:EpidemiologyEl SalvadorHomicidesUrbanization
外文關鍵詞:EpidemiologyEl SalvadorHomicidesUrbanization
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Background: Violence in Latin America and El Salvador is a significant problem that creates a big economical burden and affects the quality of life of the population of these countries. Homicide rates have been traditionally used to measure and compare the levels of violence between societies and explore the risk factors associated with it.
Objectives: Using the new databases on homicides and population available in El Salvador, this study aimed to assess the mortality due to homicides in El Salvador from the year 2005 to 2008, observe its evolution during that period, compare those rates with previous studies and explore its association with some demographic and development indicators.
Methods: In this retrospective observational study, secondary data were used to analyze the trends and variations of homicides through different municipalities of El Salvador, from 2005 to 2008, explore some characteristics of the homicides, the victims and the relation, at municipal level, between homicide rate and some demographic and development indicators.
Aggregated data from the year 2008 and individual data from the years 2005 to 2007 that has provide an assessment of homicide mortality in El Salvador and allow exploring its relation to some Human Development and demographic indicators, using as a dependent variable the Homicide Incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants.
Results: The homicide incidence at national level decreased during the 4 years period analyzed, but the levels of violence continued to be high compared to a variety of standards. The municipalities in the west of the country that had reported high incidence of homicides in previous studies continued to show the same trend, while the municipalities around San Salvador have notably increased their incidence compared with the decade before. San Salvador municipality however, has sensibly reduced its incidence, suggesting a displacement of the violence to the suburbs of the metropolis.
Departments that historically showed a low incidence of these violent events continued to report relatively few homicides, despite a clear tendency toward increase.
The majority of victims were young males, the most commonly used weapon is firearms and the most common place to become homicidal victim is the street. The kind of weapon use to commit the homicide and the Places where these events occurred varied by sex and age of the victim, as well as by the level of urbanization of the place where the homicide was executed.
At municipality level, homicide incidence was associated with urbanization level (partial correlation = 0.392, p<0.000), combined matriculation rate (partial correlation = -0.299, p<0.000) and gross domestic product (partial correlation = 0.148, p=0.018).
Conclusion: Measured in homicide incidence, violence in El Salvador evolved differently between municipalities in the past four years. The characteristics of the victims and the violent events varied with demographic features of the places where they occurred. Any action taken to reduce or prevent the violence has to take into consideration these regional variations and be based on a detailed and reliable research of the place where is intended to be implemented.
Background: Violence in Latin America and El Salvador is a significant problem that creates a big economical burden and affects the quality of life of the population of these countries. Homicide rates have been traditionally used to measure and compare the levels of violence between societies and explore the risk factors associated with it.
Objectives: Using the new databases on homicides and population available in El Salvador, this study aimed to assess the mortality due to homicides in El Salvador from the year 2005 to 2008, observe its evolution during that period, compare those rates with previous studies and explore its association with some demographic and development indicators.
Methods: In this retrospective observational study, secondary data were used to analyze the trends and variations of homicides through different municipalities of El Salvador, from 2005 to 2008, explore some characteristics of the homicides, the victims and the relation, at municipal level, between homicide rate and some demographic and development indicators.
Aggregated data from the year 2008 and individual data from the years 2005 to 2007 that has provide an assessment of homicide mortality in El Salvador and allow exploring its relation to some Human Development and demographic indicators, using as a dependent variable the Homicide Incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants.
Results: The homicide incidence at national level decreased during the 4 years period analyzed, but the levels of violence continued to be high compared to a variety of standards. The municipalities in the west of the country that had reported high incidence of homicides in previous studies continued to show the same trend, while the municipalities around San Salvador have notably increased their incidence compared with the decade before. San Salvador municipality however, has sensibly reduced its incidence, suggesting a displacement of the violence to the suburbs of the metropolis.
Departments that historically showed a low incidence of these violent events continued to report relatively few homicides, despite a clear tendency toward increase.
The majority of victims were young males, the most commonly used weapon is firearms and the most common place to become homicidal victim is the street. The kind of weapon use to commit the homicide and the Places where these events occurred varied by sex and age of the victim, as well as by the level of urbanization of the place where the homicide was executed.
At municipality level, homicide incidence was associated with urbanization level (partial correlation = 0.392, p<0.000), combined matriculation rate (partial correlation = -0.299, p<0.000) and gross domestic product (partial correlation = 0.148, p=0.018).
Conclusion: Measured in homicide incidence, violence in El Salvador evolved differently between municipalities in the past four years. The characteristics of the victims and the violent events varied with demographic features of the places where they occurred. Any action taken to reduce or prevent the violence has to take into consideration these regional variations and be based on a detailed and reliable research of the place where is intended to be implemented.
Introduction………………………………………………………………..1

Violence in Latin America and El Salvador………………………………..1
Objectives…………………………………………………………………...9

Literature Review …………………………………………………………11

Homicide incidence rates in El Salvador and the rest of the world………...11
Individual factors of risk……………………………………………………19
Temporal factors of risk…………………………………………………….21
Socio-economical and demographic factors associated with homicides…...21
Fire weapons………………………………………………………………...27
Other variables explored in the literature…………………………………...31

Methodology………………………………………………………………..35

Setting…………………………………………………………… …………35
Design……………………………………………………..………………....36
Data bases ………………………………………………….……………......37



Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………40
Population Calculation ……………………………………………………….43
Homicide Rates Calculation…………………………………………………..47

Results………………………………………………………………………...48

Descriptive statistics and Incidence Estimations……………………………...48
Exploring the relation between the Individual Level Variables and the characteristics of the events………………………………………………………………………….66
Exploring the relation between Incidence and municipal level development and demographic indicators………………………………………………………………………78

Discussion………………………………………………………………………81
Incidence………………………………………………………………………..81
Analysis with two variables…………………………………………………….97
Municipality level variables……………………………………………………105
Fire weapons…………………………………………………………………...108
Temporal dimension…………………………………………………………...110
Main limitations of this study…………………………………………………112
Main strengths of this study…………………………………………………...112

Policy implications and prevention………………………………………….114

Actions at national level……………………………………………………….114

Actions at local level…………………………………………………………..117

References……………………………………………………………………123
Appendixes……………………………………………………………………129
Appendix I……………………………………………………………………..129
Appendix II…………………………………………………………………….141
Appendix III……………………………………………………………………142
Appendix IV……………………………………………………………………143
Appendix V…………………………………………………………………….153
Appendix VI……………………………………………………………………171
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