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研究生:簡玉涵
研究生(外文):Yu-Han Chien
論文名稱:資本支出領先者與落後者之未來績效分析
論文名稱(外文):The Future Performance of Capital Expenditure Leaders and Followers
指導教授:沈仰斌沈仰斌引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yang-Pin Shen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2009
畢業學年度:97
語文別:英文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:資本支出領先落後關係績效分析
外文關鍵詞:capital expenditureleader followerperformance
相關次數:
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本文旨在檢視資本支出領先者與落後者的基本特性與其未來績效表現,績效衡量包含營運績效、股價異常報酬及未來股價波動性與盈餘波動性等指標。若公司的資本支出密集度大於產業加權平均者則將之歸納為領先者;若小於或等於者即歸納為落後者。實證結果發現,資本支出領先者的未來潛在成長性較高,且於銷貨成長、市佔率、銷貨收入及淨利等當期指標上表現好於落後者;於銷貨市值比、益本比、股東權益報酬率及總資產報酬率等指標上表現差於落後者。雖然資本支出領先者的未來績效或股價異常報酬並無優於落後者,其未來表現呈現成長趨勢且漸漸改善中,未來一年的股價波動性也顯著下降。長期而言,領先操作資本支出的公司不僅潛在的獲利能力看好,未來股價波動性也能有效降低。
本文亦嘗試探討公司逆勢操作資本支出後的長期績效表現。逆勢操作意指公司資本支出決策與產業操作趨勢不同,實證結果發現,未控制銷貨成長規模時,逆勢公司於當期的表現上雖然差於順勢操作的公司,但該反向決策將有助於逆勢公司改善未來的績效表現,使其足以與順勢公司並駕齊驅。然而,考慮銷貨成長規模後的逆勢資本支出與順勢資本支出於未來績效表現上便無顯著差異。整體而言,逆勢操作的決策將承擔更多未來的不確定性。
In this study, I investigate the characteristics of capital expenditure leaders and followers and examine the relationship between capital expenditure and future performance, which includes stock valuation, operating performance and risk volatility in the long term. Firms with the capital expenditure intensity larger than (less than or equal to) that of the industry value-weighted are classified as Leaders (Followers). The performance improvement of leaders is larger than followers’ and exhibit continued growth, higher potential profitability and less risk volatility.
Different dimension for the connection of corporate capital spending which different with industry trend and their future performance is also discussed. The same tendency means that the company and the industry both simultaneously increase or decrease investment; while the adverse tendency means that the company increase (decrease) in capital investment when most industry firms decrease (increase). The future performance of adverse tendency capital expenditure is more uncertain due to the result is influenced by considering sales scale or not.
Overall, capital expenditure leaders help company exhibit future potential profitability and better growth opportunities.
1. Introduction 1
2. Data Description 5
3. Capital Expenditure Leaders and Followers Analysis 6
3.1. Characteristics of Leaders and Followers 6
3.2. Stock Valuation of Leaders and Followers 9
3.3. Future Stock Volatility and Earnings Variability of Leaders and Followers 10
3.4. Brief Summary of Capital Expenditure Leaders and Followers 14
4. The Capital Expenditure Outliers Analysis 15
4.1. Tendency Measure 16
4.2. Characteristics of Adverse tendency and Same tendency 17
4.3. Stock Valuation of Adverse tendency and Same tendency 20
4.4. Future Stock Volatility and Earnings Variability of Adverse tendency and Same tendency 21
4.5. Brief Summary of Capital Expenditure Leaders and Followers 23
5.Conclusion 23
Reference 26
English 26
中文 30
English

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中文
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