(3.239.33.139) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/03/02 16:08
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:李精進
研究生(外文):Ching-Chin Lee
論文名稱:氣象遙測資料同化對颱風模擬之影響
指導教授:汪建良汪建良引用關係陳萬金陳萬金引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jian-Liang WangWann-Jin Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防大學理工學院
系所名稱:大氣科學碩士班
學門:自然科學學門
學類:大氣科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:78
中文關鍵詞:颱風路徑颱風強度WRF模式衛星遙測資料資料同化
外文關鍵詞:Typhoon tracktyphoon intensityWRF modelsatellite remote sensingdata assimilation
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:301
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究利用WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)模式的三維變分方法(3DVAR, Three-Dimensional Variational Method),研究同化衛星反演近海面10公尺風場資料,對於模式颱風初始結構及後續模擬結果的影響。
本研究共計模擬與分析7個西北太平洋颱風,計有2005年海棠(Haitang)、龍王(Long-Wang)颱風、2007年聖帕(Sepat)颱風、2008年鳳凰(Fung-Wong)、薔蜜(Jangmi)颱風、2009年莫拉克(Morakot)、芭瑪(Parma)颱風等個案。在模擬中,使用QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer)風場,藉以分析同化與未同化風場資料,對個案颱風之路徑、強度、地表向上水氣及可感熱通量、雷達回波等模擬的影響效果。其中,芭瑪颱風個案中,亦同化ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer)風場資料,以進一步分析同化兩種衛星風場資料對模擬之影響。
結果顯示,在選取的個案中,同化QuikSCAT風場後,在改善路徑模擬方面,以聖帕颱風最為明顯;在第一次加入同化資料後的72小時期間內,其路徑平均誤差有效降低約75公里。在其它颱風模擬中,雖同化風場資料對模式颱風的路徑誤差修正有限,但在颱風中心風速、水氣及可感熱通量的模擬,皆有明顯增強的效果;而對於後續模擬雷達回波強度也有所改善,與實際觀測值較為接近。
此外,QuikSCAT衛星目前已因機械問題停止觀測,而由芭瑪颱風個案中,同化QuikSCAT、ASCAT風場資料的比較而言,ASCAT風場資料似可取代QuikSCAT,來延續同化衛星風場資料之相關研究與應用,惟有待使用更多的個案模擬加以進一步驗證。
The 3DVAR (Three-Dimensional Variational Method) of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model was used in this study to investigate the impact of assimilation of 10-m sea surface winds on the initial structure of model typhoon and the following simulation results.
In this study, seven typhoons over the Northwest Pacific Ocean were simulated and analyzed. For Typhoons Haitang and Long-Wang in 2005, Typhoon Sepat in 2007, Typhoons Fung-Wong and Jangmi in 2008, Typhoons Morakot and Parma in 2009, QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) satellite wind field data were assimilated to adjust the initial field of the model. Impacts on the simulation of typhoon tracks, strength, sea surface water vapor and heat fluxes, and radar reflectivity were analyzed before the landfall of typhoons. For Typhoon Parma, ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) wind field data were also assimilated to further analyze the impact of the assimilation of these two kinds of satellite wind data on WRF model simulation.
The results showed that assimilation of QuikSCAT satellite wind field data had the most obvious positive impact on the simulated track of Typhoon Sepat. The 72-hr track error was reduced about 75 km after the first time of data assimilation. For other typhoons, assimilation of the wind data enhanced the simulation of typhoon’s inner-core wind speeds, water vapor and heat fluxes at sea surface. The simulated radar echo intensity was also improved and seemed closer to observations. However, there was no significant improvement on track error for these typhoons.
Besides, as the QuikSCAT wind data were no longer available due to mechanical problems of the satellite, ASCAT wind field data seem to be able to replace the QuikSCAT data to extend the research and application of the assimilation of satellite wind data, at least for Typhoon Parma. However, more case studies need to be carried out to have a more solid conclusion about it.
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 ix
1. 前言 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 1
1.3 論文結構 2
2. 文獻探討 5
3. 模式簡介 9
3.1 WRF model 9
3.2 WRF 3DVAR 10
4. 個案介紹與實驗模擬 13
4.1 研究方法 13
4.2 研究步驟 13
4.3 個案分析 14
4.3.1 資料蒐集 14
4.3.2 颱風生命史 14
4.4 衛星風場資料介紹 16
4.5 模式設定 17
4.6 模擬實驗組別設計 18
5. 模擬結果分析與討論 25
5.1 路徑誤差分析 25
5.2 風速增益量及颱風海平面中心氣壓分析 26
5.3 水氣通量及可感熱通量分析 28
5.4 雷達回波強度分析 29
6. 結論與未來展望 71
6.1 結論 71
6.2 未來展望 72
參考文獻 74
論文發表 77
自傳 78
Jian, G. J., and Wu, C. C., “A Numerical Study of the Track Deflection of Supertyphoon Haitang (2005) Prior to its Landfall in Taiwan,” Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 136, Issue 2, pp. 598-615, 2008.
殷鴻群、汪建良、何台華,“龍王颱風(2005)侵台期間降雨之數值模擬研究”,天氣分析與預報研討會論文彙編,9月9-11日,台北市,第61-66頁,2008。
陳泰吉、汪建良,“柯羅莎颱風(2007)雨帶變化之數值模擬”,第8屆全國大氣科學研究生研討會,12月25日,台北市,第85-90頁,2008。
林李耀、黃麗蓉、王安翔、鳳雷、陳永明、廖宇慶、周仲島,“WRF颱風降雨模擬於防災之應用與校驗”,天氣分析與預報研討會論文彙編,台北,第177-180頁,2007。
Xiao, Q., Kuo, Y. H., Sun, J., Lee, W. C., and Barker, D. M., “An Approach of Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation and Its Assessment with the Inland QPF of Typhoon Rusa (2002) at Landfall,” J. Appl. Meteor., Vol. 46, Issue 1, pp. 14-22, 2007.
Xiao, Q., and Sun, J., “Multiple-Radar Data Assimilation and Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP_2002,” Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 135, Issue 10, pp. 3381-3404, 2007.
Sugimoto, S., Crook, N. A., Sun, J., Xiao, Q., and Barker, D. M., “An Examination of WRF 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation on Its Capability in Retrieving Unobserved Variables and Forecasting Precipitation through Observing System Simulation Experiments,” Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 137, Issue 11, pp. 4011-4029, 2009.
Wu, C. C., Chou, K. H., Lin, P. H., Aberson, S. D., Peng, M. S., and Nakazawa, T., “The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR,” Wea. Forecasting, Vol. 22, Issue 6, pp. 1157-1176, 2007.
Huang, C. Y., Kuo, Y. H., Chen, S. H., and Vandenberghe, F., “Improvements on Typhoon Forecast With Assimilated GPS Occultation Refractivity,” Wea. Forecasting, Vol. 20, Issue 6, pp. 931-953, 2005.
簡芳菁、謝章眉,“投落送與QuikSCAT資料同化對WRF模擬之影響”,大氣科學,第36期,第3號,第217-247頁,2008。
黃清勇、王潔如,“衛星遙測資料三維變分同化對於颱風模擬的影響”,大氣科學,第36期,第4號,第249-274頁,2008。
Wu, C. C., and Chou, K. H., “Tropical Cyclone Initialization and Prediction Based on Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation,” Wea. Forecasting, Vol. 63, Issue 9, pp. 2383-2395, 2006.
Chen, L., “Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds,” Chapter 6 of Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, WMO/TD-No. 693, Edited by Elsberry, R. L., Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland, pp. 261-271, 1996.
曾忠一,氣象資料同化,渤海堂,台北市,第594頁,1997。
Ide, K., Courtier, P., Ghil, M., and Lorenc, A. C., “Unified Notation for Data Assimilation: Operational, Sequential and Variational,” J. Met. Soc. Japan, Vol. 75, No. 1B, pp.181-189, 1997.
Wang, W., Bruyere, C., Duda, M., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Lin, H. C., Michalakes, J., and Rizvi, S., and Zhang, X., User’s Guide for Advanced Research WRF (ARW) Modeling System Version 3, NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, 2009.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X. Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G., A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, 2008.
Ebuchi, N., Graber, H. C., and Caruso., M. J., “Evaluation of Wind Vectors Observed by QuikSCAT/SeaWinds Using Ocean Buoy Data,” J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., Vol. 19, Issue 12, pp. 2049-2062, 2002.
Chen, S. H., “The Impact of Assimilation SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations,” Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 135, Issue 2, pp.549-566, 2007.
Singh, R., Pal, P. K., and Joshi, P. C., “Impacts of Satellite-Observed Winds and Total Precipitable Water on WRF Short-Range Forecasts over the Indian Region during the 2006 Summer Monsoon,” Wea. Forecasting, Vol. 24, Issue 6, pp. 1706-1731, 2009.
Brennan, M. J., Hennon, C. C., and Knabb, R. D., “The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center,” Wea. Forecasting, Vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 621-645, 2009.
ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/ocean_wind/quikscat/L2B/data/
http://www.eumetsat.int/
Verhoef, A., and Stoffelen, A., ASCAT Wind Product User Manual, Ocean and Sea Ice SAF Technical Note SAF/OSI/CDOP/KNMI/TEC/MA/126, Ver. 1.8, pp. 1-23, Jan, 2010.
Emanuel, K. A., Neelin, J. D., and Bretherton, C. S., “On Large-Scale Circulation in Convecting Atmospheres,” Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 120, Issue 591, pp. 1111-1143, 1994.
Xiao, Q., Kuo, Y. H., Zhang, Y., and Barker, D. M., “A Tropical Cyclone Bogus Data Assimilation Scheme in the MM5 3D-Var System and Numerical Experiments with Typhoon Rusa (2002) Near Landfall,” J. Met. Soc. Japan, Vol. 84, Issue 84, pp. 671-689, 2006.
Chen, Y., and Snyder, C., “Assimilating Vortex Position with an Ensemble Kalman Filter,” Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 120, Issue 5, pp. 1828-1845, 2007.
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔