臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

市面上有許多為專案管理者設計的管理專案套裝軟體。但是，這些管理專案的套裝軟體往往價格不低，而且通常無法適用於每個需求者。因此本研究以Ragsdale(2001)試算表(spread- sheet)、實獲值管理(earned value management)和實獲時程(earned schedule)為基礎，再利用廣為使用的Microsoft Office Excel繼續延伸設計一套運算流程，計算專案各項績效指標(performance factor index)、並推算完工時間及完工成本。讓中小企業自己利用MS Excel分析專案績效，監控專案進度，並推算專案完工成本及完工時間，不需額外耗資安裝其他專案管理軟體。首先，本研究運用Ragsdale 試算表算出專案找出專案的開始時間及完工時間，再利用Microsoft Office Excel以亂數模擬專案的實際執行狀況，如專案的實際工期(actual duration)及實際成本(actual cost)。接著算出各項績效指標，推算專案完工時間(estimate at completion time, EAC(t))及專案完工成本；最後利用標準差比較以計畫值法(planned value)，實獲工期法(earned duration)，實獲時程法(earned schedule) (Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke, 2005)推算出來的完工時間的準確度。

There are many types of project management software specifically designed for project managers, however, the software packages for project management could be costly and it doesn't always fit the specific needs among different users. The user has to physically install this software before using it, and the software itself tend to take up considerable memories.
This paper is aimed to discuss how to build up a system in calculating Project Performance Factor and estimate project completion time and cost. Let small and medium-sized enterprises utilize MS Excel to analyze the project performance, control the progress of project, calculate completion cost and completion time, needn’t to spend money installing the other management software of special project externally.
The system is built upon the fundamentals of the Ragsdale, C. T. (2001) Spreadsheet, Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule then combined the functions with the widely used Microsoft Office Excel without having to install extra software.
First, use the Ragsdale Spreadsheet to calculate the Early Start Time and Early Finish Time on a simple one activity example project. Secondly, use the random generation models in Microsoft Office Excel to simulate the Actual Duration and Actual Cost of the project. Next, this paper calculate performance index for each of the project, estimate project duration and cost. Lastly, compare the standard deviation among Planned Value, Earned Duration, Earned Schedule (Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke, 2005) to determine its accuracy.

內容目錄
中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii
英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv
誌謝辭　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi
內容目錄　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vii
表目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ix
圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． x
符號說明　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． xii
第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第一節　　研究背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第二節　　研究動機．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 2
　　第三節　　研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
　　第四節　　研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 5
　　第一節　　專案時程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 5
　　第二節　　試算表．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 7
　　第三節　　實獲值管理．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 8
第四節　　Ragsdale試算表．．．．．．．．．．．． 17
第三章　　研究方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 24
　　第一節　　研究架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 24
第二節　　Microsoft Office Excel運算流程．．．．．． 24
　　第三節　　利用Ragsdale的試算表模擬案例．．．．． 27
　　第四節　　利用Microsoft Office Excel模擬案例找出專
案的EAC值及EAC(t)值．．．．．．．．． 27
第四章　　研究結果與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29

　　第一節　　利用Ragsdale的試算表計算出專案中各活動
的EST值及專案的要徑圖．．．．．．．． 29
第二節　　利用Microsoft Office Excel模擬案例找出專
案的EAC值．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38
第三節　　利用Microsoft Office Excel擬案例找出專案
的EAC(t)值．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 51
第五章　　研究結果與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 59
　　第一節　　研究結果．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 59
　　第二節　　研究建議與未來研究方向．．．．．．．． 59
參考文獻　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 61

表目錄
表 2- 1 DMWS案例資料．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 18
表 2- 2 DMWS案例中活動D的 EST運算流程．．．．． 23
表 4- 1 專案A的活動、工期及直接成本．．．．．．．． 30
表 4- 2 專案A的Ragsdale試算表．．．．．．．．．．． 32
表 4- 3 專案A的PVRate(i)．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38
表 4- 4 專案A的PVt．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 40
表 4- 5 RAD(i)、RAC(i)、AAD(i)及AAC(i)．．．．．．． 42
表 4- 6 專案A實際工期的Ragsdale試算．．．．．．．． 43
表 4- 7 專案A的EVRate(i)和ACRate(i)．．．．．．．． 44
表 4- 8 專案A的EVt．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 46
表 4- 9 專案A的ACt．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 47
表4-10 專案各項績效指標及EACt值．．．．．．．．．． 49
表4-11 用計畫值法推算EAC (t) t．．．．．．．．．．．． 51
表4-12 用實獲工期推算EAC (t) t．．．．．．．．．．．． 53
表4-13 用實獲排程法推算EAC (t) t．．．．．．．．．．． 54
表4-14 預測完工工期之標準差．．．．．．．．．．．． 58

圖目錄
圖 1- 1 研究流程圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4
圖 2- 1 AON圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
圖 2- 2 AOA圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
圖 2- 3 實獲值管理圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 10
圖 2- 4 實獲時程圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 11
圖 2- 5 ES圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 16
圖 2- 6 DMWS案例時程網路圖．．．．．．．．．．．． 18
圖 2- 7 Excel反覆計算，循環參照步驟一．．．．．．．． 19
圖 2- 8 Excel反覆計算，循環參照步驟二．．．．．．．． 19
圖 2- 9 Ragsdale的試算表基本資料登錄．．．．．．． 20
圖 2-10 Excel反覆計算，循環參照啟動技巧．．．．．．． 21
圖 2-11 DMWS案例的Ragsdale試算表．．．．．．．．． 22
圖 3- 1 研究方法流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 23
圖 4- 1 專案A網路圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
圖 4- 2 運算專案EST值及專案要徑流程圖．．．．．．． 31
圖 4- 3 專案基本資料登錄(一)．．．．．．．．．．．．． 32
圖 4- 4 甘特圖繪製圖解一．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 33
圖 4- 5 甘特圖繪製圖解二．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 34
圖 4- 6 甘特圖繪製圖解三．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 34
圖 4- 7 甘特圖繪製圖解四．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 35
圖 4- 8 專案A的EST甘特圖．．．．．．．．．．．．． 36
圖 4- 9 專案A的要徑路徑．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 37
圖 4-10 專案A的PVRate函數．．．．．．．．．．．．． 39
圖 4-11 PV-t曲線．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41
圖 4-12 亂數產生器．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41
圖 4-13 EV t -t曲線．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 48
圖 4-14 AC t -t曲線．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 48
圖 4-15 PVt , EVt , AC t -t曲線．．．．．．．．．．．．． 49
圖 4-16 EACt-t 關係圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 51
圖 4-17 PF＝1的「EAC(t) t -t」關係圖．．．．．．．．． 55
圖 4-18 PF＝SPI的「EAC(t) t -t」關係圖．．．．．．．． 55
圖 4-19 PF＝SCI的「EAC(t) t -t」關係圖．．．．．．．． 56
圖 4-20 標準差圖解一．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 56
圖 4-21 標準差圖解二．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 57
圖 4-22 標準差圖解三．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 57

參考文獻
一、中文部份
PMI國際專案管理學會(2006)，專案管理知識體指南，台北：博鴻國際管理顧問股份有限公司。
周祥東(2003)，實獲值管理：基礎篇[線上資料]，來源http://www. psig.com.tw/intelligence/article13.htm[2003, September 12]。
二、英文部份

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Brandon, K., & Daniel, M. (1998). Implementing Earned Value Easility and Effectively. Project Management Journal, 29(2), 11.

Donald, J. C. (1994). Improve Schedule Forecasting Via Earned Value. AACE Transactions, pp. CSC7 1-9.

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Lipke, W., Zwikael, O., Henderson, K., Anbari, F. (2009). Prediction of project outcome-The application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performance indexes. International Journal of Project Management, 27(4), 400-407.

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Vandevoorde, S., & Vanhoucke, M. (2006). A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods using Earned Value Metrics. International Journal of Project Management, 24, 289-302.