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研究生:凃天祥
研究生(外文):Taien-Hsiang Tu
論文名稱:風險容忍度與資產配置之實證研究
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Test on Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation
指導教授:許文彥許文彥引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wen-Yen Hsu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:風險管理與保險研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:風險管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:21
中文關鍵詞:資產配置風險容忍度
外文關鍵詞:Asset AllocationRisk Tolerance
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:6
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  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:133
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本文以問卷方式了解受訪者對風險容忍度的回答分數與股票投資比率的關係。由於受訪者對風險容忍度的填答結果反應其對風險的趨避程度,因此預期分數愈高,股票投資比率也愈高。本文先以受訪者各題的分數及總分對股票投資比率進行迴歸,實證結果大致與本文的預期相符。
性別、年齡、收入、資產、自有房屋、房貸支出及有未成年子女人數等人口統計因素影響其資產配置及投資組合,同時也影響風險容忍度的測試結果,因此如果將性別、財富等變數與風險容忍度總分一起進行多元迴歸時,上述人口變數的顯著性可能受風險容忍度分數的影響,因此另以風險容忍度為因變數分析其殘差項,用以解釋原迴歸所無法觀察到的因素,再以該殘差值與其它變數一起對股票投資比率進行迴歸。結果包括女性與擁有自有房屋者由不顯著變成負向顯著。
分量迴歸的實證結果發現,除殘差值仍為正顯著外,女性的係數為負向顯著,且隨分位數的增加而下降,顯示投資股票比重較高的族群,女性風險趨避的程度更為明顯,以致投資股票的比例愈低;年齡的係數隨分位數的增加而增加,表示投資投票比重較高的族群,年齡愈大者的風險趨避程度愈不明顯,以致投資投票的比例愈高。
Gender, age, income, asset, payment, marriage, children and other demographic factors will influence portfolio allocation, investment portfolio and test result of risk tolerance. If we adopt gender, wealth and risk tolerance factors in multiple regressions, the average bias of regression will affect the accuracy of statistics result. Therefore, we adopt risk tolerance as dependent variance to analyze residual and explain the factors cannot be observed in original regression. And then we take residual and other variables to take regression analysis with stock investment ratio.
Based on the results, coefficient of female decreases while the quantile increases, implying the group who invest in stocks more has more obvious risk aversion level. Coefficient of age increases while the quantile increases, implying the older the group who invest in stocks more is, the less obvious risk aversion level is, resulting in investing in stocks more. Coefficient of having children decreases while the quantile increases, implying among the group who invest in stocks more is, the one who has children has less obvious risk aversion level resulting in investing in stocks more.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第三章 研究方法 6
第一節 研究假說 6
第二節 研究變數 6
第三節 資料來源 9
第四章 實證結果 10
第一節 敘述統計 10
第二節 迴歸結果分析 11
第五章 結論 16
參考文獻 17
附錄、問卷 20
中文文獻
1.何素蘭、曾郁仁、王儷玲,1999年,「風險趨避程度增加對市場保險與自我保險的需求分析」,風險管理學報,第1卷第2期。
2.陳嘉惠、高郁惠、劉玉珍,2002年,「投資人偏好與資產配置」,臺灣管理學刊,第1卷第2 期。
英文文獻
1.Agnew, Julie, Pierluigi Balduzzi and Annika Sunden (2003), Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan, American Economic Review, 93(1), 193-215.
2.Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean (2001), Boys Will be Boys : Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
3.Honig, Marjorie (1998), Married Women''s Retirement Expectations: Do Pensions and Social Security Matter, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 202-206.
4.Jianakoplos, Nancy Ammon and Alexandra Bernasek (1998), Are Womwn More Risk Averse, Economic Inquiry, V1, 620-630.
5.Johnson, J.E.V. and P.L. Powell (1994), Decision Making, Risk and Gender: Are Managers Different, British Journal of Management, 5 : 123-138.
6.Morin, Roger-A. and A. Fernandez Suarez (1983), Risk Aversion Revisited, The Journal of Finance, 38(4), 1201-1216.
7.Papke, Leslie E. (1998), How Are Participants Investing Their Accounts in Participant Directed Individual Account Pension Plans, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 212-216.
8.Schubert, Renate, Martin Brown, Matthias Gysler amd Hans Wolfgang Brachinger (1999), Financial Decision-Making: Are Women Really More Risk-Averse, The American Economic Review, 89(2), 381-385.
9.Sunden, Annika E. and Brian J. Surette (1998), Gender Differences in the Allocation of Assets in Retirement Savings Plans, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 207-211.
10.Honig, Marjorie (1998), Married Women''s Retirement Expectations, Do Pensions and Social Security Matter, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 202-206.
11.Johnson, J.E.V. and P.L. Powell (1994), Decision Making, Risk and Gender : Are Managers Different, British Journal of Management, 5, 123-138.
12.Morin, Roger-A. and A. Fernandez Suarez (Sep.,1983), Risk Aversion Revisited, The Journal of Finance, 38(4), 1201-1216.
13.Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean (Feb., 2001), Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
14.Cooper, Arnold C. Carolyn Y. Woo and William C. Dunkelberg (1988), Entrepreneurs'' perceived chances for success, Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, 3(2), 97-108.
15.Langer, Ellen Jane (1975), The illusion of control, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
16.Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean (Nov/Dec 1999), The Courage of Misguided Convictions: The Trading Behavior of Individual Investors, Financial Analysts. Journal, 41-55.
17.Beyer, S. and E. Bowden (1997), Gender Differences in Seff-Perceptions : Convergent Evidence from Three Measures of Accuracy and Bias, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23(2), 157-172.
18.Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean (2000), Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth : The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, No. 2, 773-806.
19.Odean, Terrance, (December 1999), Do Investors Trade Too Much?, American Economic Review, 89, 1279-1298.
20.Peterson, Dane K. and Pitz, Gordon F. (1988), Confidence, Uncertainty, and the Use of Information, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, Vol. 14(1), 85-92.
21.Presson, P. K. and Benassi, V. A. (1996), Illusion of Control: A Meta-Analytic Review, Journal of Social Behavior and Personality 11(3), 493-510.
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