臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Smith(1980)最早採用新古典模型研究國防需求，此模型至今仍被國防經濟學家廣泛引用，後續學者的研究把Smith(1980)的模型加以延伸，加入不同類型的變數，使用不同的計量方法對國防需求做更深入之探討。本論文亦採新古典模型，但著重於探討兵役制度改變是否造成國防支出需求發生結構性改變。本文首先藉由Lee and Strazicich(2003)雙結構改變單根檢定方式檢定經歷過兵役制度改變的國家之國防支出需求是否具有兩個內生性結構改變；並透過ARDL的實證模型分析在兵役制度調整前後模型是否有顯著差異。實證結果顯示國防支出有發生內生性結構性改變，其中除了冷戰是同時影響這些國家國防支出需求的重要因素外，其餘的結構性改變時間點與兵役制度改變時間大致符合；而在ARDL的長期效果模型中也發現兵役制度改變前後之模型有顯著差異。

Smith(1980) have first developed a military demand model using New-Classical method. This model has been applied in many military demand researches. These researches stretched Smith(1980)’s model by putting in different variables and using different econometric approaches. This paper follow Smith(1980)’s model to examine if the military service changes resulting in structural breaks to military demand. This paper firstly used Lee and Strazicich(2003) two breaks unit root test to test if there are endogenous structural breaks and if they happened with military service changes. And then we used ARDL model to find out what is the effects of military service changes to military demand. In empirical results we showed that except for cold war is the most important reason affect military demand, military service system changes also correspond to breaks that is found in Lee and Strazicich’s (2003) two breaks unit root test. In ARDL model we found the long run coefficient is very different before and after military service change.

第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................. 1
第一節 研究動機 .................................................................................... 1
第二節 研究目的 .................................................................................... 5
第二章 文獻回顧 .......................................................................................... 6
第一節 兵役制度的變遷 .......................................................................... 6
一、世界各國兵役制度 .................................................................... 6
二、兵役制度歷史沿革 .................................................................... 8
三、兵役制度之優劣 ...................................................................... 16
第二節 國防支出需求 ............................................................................ 21
第三章 研究方法 ........................................................................................ 28
第一節 Lee and Strazicich(2003)雙結構改變單根檢定 ..................... 29
第二節 ARDL模型 ............................................................................. 30
第四章 實證結果 ........................................................................................ 33
第一節 研究對象與數據來源 ............................................................... 33
第二節 實證結果與分析 ....................................................................... 34
一、 Lee and Strazicich(2003)雙結構改變單根檢定 ................... 34
二、 ARDL模型 ........................................................................... 38
第五章 結論 ............................................................................................... 44
參考文獻 ......................................................................................................... 46
中文參考文獻： ..................................................................................... 46
英文參考文獻： ..................................................................................... 46
附錄 ................................................................................................................ 50

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