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研究生:查日潔
研究生(外文):Jih-Chieh Cha
論文名稱:財務預測受產業因素影響之實證研究
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Study on the Impact of the Industrial Factors in Financial Forecast
指導教授:陳育成陳育成引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:財務金融系所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:37
中文關鍵詞:產業同質性公司特有資訊程度產業集中度分析師預測精確度分析師預測分散程度
外文關鍵詞:industry homogeneityfirm-specific informationindustry concentration
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本文主要目的為探討產業資訊特質對分析師財務預測的效果,產業資訊特質分為產業雜訊、產業共同資訊程度、公司特有資訊程度以及產業集中度。本研究希望能釐清產業資訊特質改變時,分析師對產業成員的預測行為是否會隨之改變,或仍維持原預測水準。
實證結果發現,當產業中雜訊越多時,分析師預測精確度越低,分析師預測分散程度越高。而當產業成員同質性和共同資訊程度越高時,表示產業中影響整體成員的新資訊越多,分析師精確度亦將下降,且預測分散程度提高,原因可能由於資訊內容增多,以致於複雜度增加,使分析師預測精確度降低、預測分散程度上升。而當預測標的公司特有資訊提高時,代表產業中影響單一產業成員的新資訊較多,和影響整體產業的共同資訊相反,分析師預測精確度上升,分散程度減低,可能原因是標的公司的新資訊降低市場資訊不對稱以及投資人的交易成本,因此使分析師對公司的預測精確度提升,分散程度下降。


The purpose of the study is to investigate the industry-level effect to analysts’ financial forecast. The industry-level features are the industry-level news, the common information, the firm-specific information and the industry concentration. This study wants to clarify the fact that when industry-level features change, the analysts will modify the forecast of industrial staff or still stay the original forecast status.
It comes out that when there are much more industry-level news, the analysts will get lower forecast accuracy but the higher dispersion of accuracy. That is, when the homogeneity of staff and common information are higher, it indicates that there are much more information of the whole staff in the industry, the analysts’ accuracy will get lower and the level of dispersion will ascend. The reason may be that the increase of information leads to raise the complication and reduce analysts’ forecast accuracy. While the target forecast company lifts up the firm-specific information, it tells that there is much more new information of effects on single industrial staff. To the contrary of the whole effect on the common information, the analysts’ accuracy gets up and the dispersion decreases. The reason may be the new information of the target company lower the market asymmetric information and investors’ transaction cost. Accordingly, the analysts’ forecast accuracy to company raise up and the dispersion descend.


第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 分析師預測精確度和一致性行為文獻探討 5
第二節 分析師行為受公司特性和產業影響探討 7
第三節 小結 9
第三章 研究方法 10
第一節 假說建立 10
第二節 樣本選取 12
第三節 變數和模型介紹 13
第四章 實證結果與分析 18
第一節 敘述統計表 18
第二節 實證結果分析 21
第三節 敏感性分析 25
第五章 結論與建議 33
第一節 結論 33
第二節 建議 34
參考文獻 35

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