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研究生:沈子淵
研究生(外文):Zi-YuenShen
論文名稱:以模糊理論評估路工作業工率
論文名稱(外文):Estimating Productivity of Highway Construction Tasks based on Fuzzy Theory
指導教授:潘南飛潘南飛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Nang-Fei Pan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:土木工程學系碩博士班
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:98
中文關鍵詞:路工作業工率工期模糊迴歸分析
外文關鍵詞:Unit RateConstruction DurationFuzzy regression analysisHighway Construction
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工程專案之工期主要是以各作業的需時為估算的基礎。若低估作業的需時,可能因需趕工而增加額外的成本;若因工期延誤,則將造成影響聲譽、須付逾期罰款,以及其它損失的風險。反之,若因各作業的需時估計過長,則可能造成作業開始時間的延後、施工效率低落與資源閒置,致使增加額外的工程管理費用。營建作業需時之估計,一般是以作業的生產力(Productivity)或稱工率(Unit rate)做為估計的依據。故作業工率估計的正確與否,影響作業需時估計的正確與否至鉅。由於公路工程作業大都是在戶外進行,使得工程進度具有許多不確定因素,諸如天候、工地狀況、施工機具性能、施工人員素質及管理等。
多元線性迴歸分析為處理上述問題所常用的方法,其分析程序為(1)找出並判定影響工率(因變數)的相關因子(自變數),(2)利用歷史資料或觀測資料來建立變數之間的線性關係式,用以瞭解各個變數對工率的影響程度,以及(3)由已知的變數來預測工率,進而掌控各重要變數對其之影響。過去已有許多運用多元線性迴歸分析法來建立營建工率評估模式的研究。然而,由於工率與影響因子的量測,係基於觀測人員或專家主觀的語意評估而具有模(含)糊性。例如,工率為低、很低或很高;天候很差、普通或很好等,故傳統迴歸分析法無法處理此類模糊資訊或模糊變數的問題。相反地,模糊迴歸分析已被認為可克服此種類問題的有效方法。
基於上述,本文旨在提供更能準確地估計工作業之工率,作為工程單位建置合理之工率評估模式的參考。本文利用Pan et al.及本研究提出之模式以高速公路嘉義民雄交流道工程第534標新建工程與桃園國道2號第H21B標拓寬工程為案例,來建立路工作業工率之模糊迴歸式。模式的預估結果:建立作業工率與其影響因子之關係式,此可協助進度管理者能更準確與合理地估計作業之工率與需時;此外,由模式中迴歸係數之正負號與大小,可用以掌握那些變數對於作業工率具有重要之影響及其影響的大小,進而可回饋於改善與管控重要之影響變數。
Estimation of the construction period is base on each construction activities length time. Generally, the estimation is compute in working productivity or working rate. It is very important that might affect the accuracy in determine construction operation duration. Highway construction is outdoors activities which surround with many uncertainties, such as wher, site condition, machinery performance, labor quality, site management and operation that will affect construction progress.
In the past, several studies are using multiple linear regression analysis to establish estimation model of construction working rate. However, the work rate factors measurement is subjective due to the ambiguity of observer or experts in assessment. Therefore, the convention regression analysis is difficult to analysis such vague information or fuzzy variables. In contrast, fuzzy regression analysis has been acquainted as effective method to overcome with those fuzzy problems.
This study proposed a more accurate model of working rate estimation, as a reference for department of highway engineering in create a practical working rate assessment model. Pan et al. (2009) model and a proposed model in this study are used to establish a fuzzy regression analysis in highway construction working rate; two projects in highway construction is use as study cases. The proposed model is to predict the relationship between working rate and variable factors and assist schedule management in measure exact construction duration. Moreover, the project manager can determine those operation activities and variable factors necessitate to give more attention in control and improvement since the coefficients size and positive or negative numbers from the regression model can revealed significant effect variables of the operation activities and its impact dimension.

目錄
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VII
第一章. 緒論 1
1.1. 前言 1
1.2. 研究動機目的 2
1.3. 研究範圍 3
1.4. 研究流程與方法 3
1.5. 論文架構 6
第二章. 文獻回顧 7
2.1 生產力分析 7
2.1.1 作業生產力分析相關研究 9
2.1.2 生產力的評估 14
2.2 模糊迴歸分析 16
第三章. 研究方法 18
3.1 模糊集 18
3.2.1 隸屬函數 18
3.2.2 語意變數 20
3.2 模糊迴歸分析 22
3.2.1. Pan et al.的迴歸模式(Pan et al.;2009) 22
3.2.2. 模糊輸入-模糊輸出迴歸模式 25
3.2.2.1. 基本性質 25
3.2.2.2. 模式推導 27
3.2.3. 相關模糊迴歸方法簡介 31
第四章. 案例探討與分析 34
4.1 工率調查方式 34
4.2 隸屬函數之建立 37
4.3 基樁案例分析 42
4.3.1 基樁混凝土澆置 42
4.3.1.1 當自變數為明確資料 45
4.3.1.2 當自變數為混合型式之資料 54
4.4 墩柱開挖案例分析 62
4.4.1 墩柱補強開挖 62
4.4.1.1 當自變數為明確資料 66
4.4.1.2 當自變數為混合型式之資料 71
4.5 小結 78
第五章. 結論與建議 79
5.1 結論 79
5.2 建議 80
參考文獻 82
附錄一、問卷調查 86
附錄二、工率記錄表 91
一、英文文獻(A~Z)
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二、中文部分
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