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研究生:麥卡羅
研究生(外文):Fox, Michael Andrew
論文名稱:Estimating the Demand for LCD TV's
論文名稱(外文):Estimating the Demand for LCD TV's
指導教授:偉耶倫
指導教授(外文):Webb, Prof Alan
口試委員:吳萬益王義特
口試委員(外文):Prof Wann-Yih WuProf Eade Wang
口試日期:2010-07-02
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:國際經營管理研究所碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:英文
論文頁數:71
外文關鍵詞:High techProduct life cycleCategories of adoptersEconometric modelNaïve forecastLCD televisions
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This research looked to find an econometric model to forecast future sales of 32” LCD televisions in the world. Determining demand for a new high tech product that is replacing an older technology presents challenges to manufacturers and price setters. Understanding the market and where it is headed are necessary for decisions regarding manufacturing investments. The concept of the product lifecycle and the categories of adopters were explored to help understand where the market stood and what changes might be coming in the future.
The model was broken into five regions, North America, Japan, China Europe and the rest of the world, before aggregating them to predict total world demand. Data was obtained through secondhand sources, Display Search, the IMF and the World Bank. The goal was to see if price and income were the mitigating factors to predict demand. The strengths of the models were compared to naïve forecasts through the root mean square error term. Through multiple regression it was found that price held the strongest relationship to demand. Income was only a significant variable in three of the five markets. In the China and Japan regions income was not found to be statistically significant due to autocorrelation and multi-colinearity issues. Alternative indicators of income could be further studied to test for validity.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I
ABSTRACT II
TABLE OF CONTENTS III
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivations. 1
1.2 Research Objectives and Motivations. 2
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 4
2.1 High Technology Industry Characteristics. 4
2.1.1 Market Uncertainty. 4
2.1.2 Technological Uncertainty. 6
2.1.3 Competitive Volatility. 7
2.2 LCD Industry Overview. 7
2.3 Economic Theory of Supply and Demand. 13
2.3.1 Demand. 14
2.3.2 Demand Influences. 14
2.3.3 Types of Goods. 15
2.3.4 Elasticity of Demand. 15
2.4 Forecasting. 17
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 20
3.1 The Conceptual Model. 20
3.2 Exogenous Demand Model Variables. 22
3.2.1 Price. (P). 22
3.2.2 Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, (GDP). 23
3.2.3 Substitutes, (Sub). 23
3.2.4 Technology, (Tech). 24
3.2.5 Market Saturation, (MS). 24
3.3 Research Hypotheses. 25
3.4 Data Collection. 26
3.5 Data Analysis Procedures. 26
CHAPTER FOUR DATA ANALYSIS 28
4.1 Introduction. 28
4.2 Data Collection. 28
4.3 Variable Data Explanations. 29
4.3.1 Dependent Variable, Q. 29
4.3.2 GDP per Capita. 31
4.3.3 Substitute Variables. 32
4.4 Regression Analysis. 33
4.4.1 World. 33
4.4.2 North America. 35
4.4.3 Japan. 39
4.4.4 China. 43
4.4.5 Europe. 48
4.4.6 Rest of the World (ROW). 52
4.5 Elasticities. 55
4.6 Forecasts. 56
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 63
REFERENCES 67
APPENDICES 68
Appendix 1: Regions and Countries Included 68
Appendix 2: North America Forecast Graph 69
Appendix 3: Japan Forecast Graph 69
Appendix 4: China Forecast Graph 70
Appendix 5: Europe Forecast Graph 70
Appendix 6: ROW Forecast Graph 71
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