探討一個新的產品或是新的概念在社會網路中的擴散過程，一直是管理及傳播領域想要了解的現象。前人研究中提出不少利用電腦模擬來探討產品擴散動態的模型，但是在這些模型中有幾個過度簡化的假設：(1)代理人內心對於此產品的態度不變；(2)代理人之間不會互相討論並交換意見；(3)「內在意見態度」和「外在擴散門檻」並不會互相影響，本研究提出的模型則放寬這些限制。其次，本論文主要想要探討的新產品或是新觀念是屬於具有爭議性的，而像是這種產品(例如:基因改造食品、存臍帶血等)，消費者內心都必須是持正面態度才有機會接受此產品。
本論文模型中加入了意見動態模型，代理人之間可以互相溝通，並且會隨時間不同而持不同的態度。我們參考社會心理學的理論來實現意見動態和擴散動態之間互動的機制；也就是說，本研究模型中的「態度」和「行為」兩個層次，皆會受到人際關係的影響而隨時間的不同而有所改變。本研究利用模擬觀察在不同的社會網路、不同產品、不同市場大小、以及不同的行銷策略下，一個爭議性產品的動態擴散過程。
經由模擬實驗，我們發現修改過後的模擬模型更能真實的反應出社會中大眾接受一個具爭議性產品時的各種可能現象，例如「叫好不叫座」、「新產品較佳的宣傳時間點」、「先驅者的影響」、「鄉村的行銷策略」等。我們整理出在各種社會狀況時產品的擴散過程，希望能作為往後傳播動態或是行銷策略研究的一個參考，並在此基礎上探索更細部的因素。

中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT iii
致謝 v
目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機與背景 1
1.2研究目標 5
1.3研究重要性 7
1.4研究問題 8
第二章 文獻探討 10
2.1社會網路(Social network) 10
2.1.1小世界網路 12
2.2社會心理學(Social psychology) 13
2.2.1認知失調理論(Cognitive dissonance theory) 13
2.2.2 理性行動理論(Theory of Reasoned Action,TRA) 14
2.3意見動態模型(Opinion dynamics model) 16
HK 模型 17
RA模型(Relative agreement model) 17
2.4決策門檻模型 18
2.5 創新擴散 20
2.5.1技術採用生命週期 21
第三章 模型設計 23
3.1 模型描述 23
3.1.1 基本設定與假設 23
3.2 建立人際關係網路 24
3.3 代理人和議題 25
3.4 模型進行流程 27
3.4.1初始化 27
3.4.2 意見交流 28
3.4.3 是否採用 30
3.5 輿論動態的機制 31
3.6 兩者如何互相影響 33
3.7 分析方法 33
3.7.1 參數設定之意義 33
3.7.2 實驗設計 34
第四章 模擬實驗 37
4.1 敏感度分析 37
4.1.1 參照基準 38
4.1.2 外在門檻值 39
4.1.3 先驅者集中 43
4.1.4人際關係網路結構的改變 45
4.1.5 整理 47
4.2意見動態的影響程度 49
4.3 特別議題探討 57
4.3.1模型驗證_哥倫比亞農村的耕種創新擴散研究(創新的擴散 P.269) 57
4.3.2 台灣新流感疫苗注射人數趨勢 59
4.3.3小結 60
第五章 結論 61
5.1 結論 61
5.2 研究貢獻 62
5.3 未來展望 63
附錄A 65
附錄B 66
附錄C 67
附錄D 68
參考文獻 71

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