臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

交通運輸是台灣經濟發展中很重要的一個因素，交通建設的擴展使得經濟成長提高，但城市運輸系統卻造就一連串的環境問題。交通建設越趨完善，經濟活動和交通量顯著增長。道路運輸是運輸部門中能源消耗量最大，且機動車輛所排放出的廢氣是導致空氣品質惡化的主要原因。雖然在經濟發展過程中會增加污染排放量，使環境品質的衝擊大幅增加，但經濟發展仍對環境具有正面影響。人們環保意識提升，政府實行環境政策使得環境汙染物排放量逐漸減少，這意味著所得增加至一定程度時，污染物會隨之減少，此種關係尚需商確。此外，環境惡化會直接影響產出及對其他要素投入產生負面效果，或者產生更高的減排成本，進而導致產出改變。以往文獻顯示經濟體與其環境及運輸是共同決定的，使用單一方程式去估計交通運輸與經濟的關係或估計交通運輸與環境的關係是不恰當的。因此，本研究建構一組聯立方程模型去了解交通運輸、經濟成長與環境間的關係，並進一步估計環境顧志耐曲線。
本研究分析結果顯示交通運輸、經濟成長與環境彼此有關聯。交通運輸的增加確實會使得經濟成長提高，經濟成長卻對交通運輸沒有影響，另外，交通運輸則部份影響環境汙染。然而環境汙染同樣不完全影響經濟成長，只有總懸浮微粒(TSP)及懸浮微粒(PM10)顯示出有環境顧志耐曲線關係，其餘汙染物與經濟成長之間並沒有呈現此種關係，此現象也顯示出越高的經濟成長，並非有助於改善環境品質。

Transportation is an important factor in economic development in Taiwan. As the expansion of transportation system, economic activities and traffic flows grow; however, urban transportation system also causes some environment problems. Studies show that preference to a better environment of a society grows stronger as people get wealthier; therefore the government will then make more rigorous environment regulation. In addition, environmental degradation may directly reduce output and put adverse effects upon production factors, or indirectly through higher emission reduction costs. Previous studies showed that the economy, environment, and transportation are jointly determined; therefore it is inappropriate to apply a single equation model to estimate the relation between transportation and economic growth or transportation and environment. Therefore, this paper formulates a simultaneous-equation model to be more appropriate estimating the relation among transportation, economic growth and environment.
This paper found that transportation, economic growth and environment are jointly determined. Transportation assists economic growth, but not the other way around. In addition, transportation has adverse impacts to the environment. An EKC relationship does exist for TSP and PM10, but not other pollutants. Thus, economic growth does help to improve some environment degradation.

摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
致謝 III
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景及動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
2.1 交通建設之影響 4
2.1.1 交通基礎建設對經濟成長之影響 4
2.1.2交通建設對環境之影響 7
2.2 經濟成長與環境問題 10
2.2.1 EKC之概念 10
2.2.2 EKC之實證回顧 14
2.3 台灣經濟發展與運輸部門概況 20
2.3.1 台灣經濟發展概況 20
2.3.2 台灣交通建設概況 24
第三章 研究模型建構 25
3.1 模型建立 25
3.2 實證模型建構 27
3.3 資料蒐集 28
3.4 聯立方程模型（SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELS） 33
3.4.1 認定問題 33
3.4.2 三階段最小平方法（3SLS） 35
第四章 實證分析 38
4.1 敘述統計分析 38
4.2 聯立方程模型分析 42
4.2.1 經濟成長方程式之實證結果 42
4.2.2 交通運輸方程式之實證結果 46
4.2.3 環境品質方程式之實證結果 48
第五章 結論與建議 51
5.1 結論 51
5.2 建議 54
參考文獻 55
附錄 各變數趨勢圖 62

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三、政府出版品及網站資料
1.行政院經濟委員會(2009)，Taiwan Statistical Data Book。
http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0000200
2.行政院主計處家庭收支調查
http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/fies/
3.行政院主計處
http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
4.中華民國縣市重要指標查詢系統
http://61.60.106.82/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9.asp
5.行政院環保署空氣污染排放清冊
http://ivy2.epa.gov.tw/air-ei/
6.經濟部能源局
http://www.moeaec.gov.tw/Default.aspx
7.經濟部能源局-油價資訊管理系統網站
http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/oil102/
8.交通部全球資訊網
http://www.motc.gov.tw/
9.行政院主計處(2001-2009)，行政院人力資源統計年報。
10.經濟部能源局(2008)，經濟部能源統計手冊。