臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著東協的擴張, 亞洲的貿易區塊隨之擴大, 將對台灣在貿易上造成某種程度
之衝擊。本文利用Timbergen(1962) 與Linnemann(1966) 所建構的引力模型(gravity model) 納入相關變數, 如: 雙邊貿易、總體資料、距離、共同邊界、共同語言和出口國曾有殖民關係變數。利用靜態模型及動態模型探討各變數對於雙邊貿易流量的影響以及貿易創造效果與貿易開放效果將呈現如何變化。接著利用關連性變數對貿易效果的交互作用來探討。其實證結果:(1) 靜態模型, 其各變數符號均符合理論; (2) 動態模型, 東協與東亞六國及台灣與東協、東亞六國貿易創造效果、貿易開放效果為正且顯著, 表示有助於區域內、區域外貿易; (3) 距離、共同邊界及共同語言對雙邊貿易流量與貿易效果皆為重要影響因素, 其距離則是影響貿易效果較大的因素。

This paper evaluates the trade effects between the ASEAN group members and nonmembers using a static and a dynamic gravity model from 1975 to 2004. The empirical results are shown as follows: (1) The ASEAN and East Asian countries (such as China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan etc.) have a higher degree of market relations and existence of the trade creation effect in early years. (2) The distance is an important factor in trade effect.

致謝. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .i
摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii
Abstract. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iv
目錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
表次. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
圖次. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii
第一章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第一節研究背景與動機 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第二節研究方法與架構 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
第二章文獻回顧顧 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
第一節引力模型 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
第二節區域整合與貿易效果 . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
第三節引力模型之介紹 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
第三章資料來源與實證策略 . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
第一節資料來源 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
第二節虛擬變數的設定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第三節實證策略 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
第四節貿易效果的比較 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
第四章實證結果 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
第一節靜態模型 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
第二節動態模型 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
第三節關連性變數對貿易效果的交互作用 . . . . . . . 33
第四節貿易效果的比較 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
第五章結論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
參考文獻 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
附錄一: 全球區域經濟整合現況 . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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