羊群行為是在市場具有不確定性與資訊不完全的情況下, 人們忽略自己原有的資訊或判斷, 選擇跟從群眾的共同行動。本文旨在驗證羊群行為是否存在於房屋市場中, 以迴歸分析研究國內台北市、台北縣、高雄市、與台中市地區自 1991 年第 1 季至 2009 年第 4 季之追蹤資料, 結果顯示房屋交易決策顯著受到過去交易資訊的影響, 形成決策群聚現象。本研究更進一步利用 2003 年至 2008 年 ``購屋搜尋者對未來房屋價格趨勢看法" 之調查資料, 試圖衡量決策者真正因為觀察市場交易資訊後, 改變原來想法的羊群心理。結果發現當預期未來房屋價格下跌時, 決策者更容易受到過去交易資訊的影響, 而改變原有判斷。此外, 房價所得比愈高卻交易愈熱絡、看似群眾不理性的行為, 其實是因為房價所得比與未來房價預期相關, 由於現實中較難考慮預期方面之資料, 就容易形成錯誤的因果關係敘述。

1 前言 .... 1
1.1 本文架構 .... 2
2 文獻回顧 .... 3
2.1 行為財務 .... 3
2.2 羊群行為 .... 4
2.3 資訊階流與羊群行為 .... 6
2.4 羊群行為與市場實證研究 .... 8
2.5 不動產市場 .... 9
3 房屋市場 .... 11
3.1 選擇行為 .... 11
3.2 房屋市場之運作 .... 13
4 實證分析 .... 19
4.1 資料來源 .... 19
4.2 敘述統計分析 .... 22
4.3 迴歸分析 .... 29
5 衡量羊群行為 .... 34
5.1 以分量迴歸分析決策群聚 .... 34
5.2 預期房屋價格 .... 38
5.3 實證結果與討論 .... 41
6 結論 .... 43
參考文獻 .... 44

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