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研究生:廖卿惠
研究生(外文):Ching-Hui Liao
論文名稱:臺灣永續能源發展之潛勢分析
論文名稱(外文):The Potential Analysis of the Sustainable Energy Development in Taiwan
指導教授:於幼華於幼華引用關係
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:環境工程學研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:環境工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:113
中文關鍵詞:能源規劃模型能源情境模擬淨能源分析能源投資報酬環境成本分析
外文關鍵詞:Energy programming modelEnergy scenarios simulationNet energy analysisEnergy Return on Investment (EROI)Environmental cost analysis
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臺灣地狹人稠之外,包括化石能源之內的天然資源都相當匱乏。根據最新之能源平衡表顯示,臺灣初級能源自產率僅有0. 79%,電力自產率也僅達3. 81%。臺灣現今之能源供給處於一種對進口能源極度依賴的不平衡狀態下,因此發展再生能源對提升臺灣之能源供給自給率和能源安全上,不但「無悔」,也有其絕對的必要性。
發展再生能源雖然重要,但臺灣是否有足夠的條件得以發展再生能源達到永續能源供給之目的亦為重要之制約項。因此,本研究運用能源規劃模型EnergyPLAN,以能源市場中最主要之電力市場為例,以2025年為情境基本年,模擬出四種不同之情境(情境一:能源節約-總電力需求降低10%,情境二:效率提升-將總體發電系統之發電效率提升至80%,情境三:將既有之再生能源開發由現階段之30.84 %提升至60%與情境四:結合情境一~情境三),以探討「臺灣大規模導入再生能源之可能性與必要條件」。
結果顯示,結合所有情境之情境四之超額供給最多之外,情境一~情境三中,以提升發電效率所能達到之效果最好,其次為降低需求量,最後才是再生能源之開發。主要原因在於,即便將臺灣所有再生能源做100%之開發,其占2025年所需裝置容量之34. 43%,雖可以大幅提升電力供給自給率與能源安全性,但就臺灣能源供給之未來發展性而言,對於化石能源之依賴度仍高達67. 2%~78. 5%,恐未能達到完全永續能源供給之目的。此外,本模型結果亦顯示臺灣電力系統的問題除了供給量之外,分配上的問題亦不容忽視。
再者,在重點發展能源的選擇上,淨能源與環境成本分析亦應並重,以避免不必要之社會成本損失。本研究以臺灣發展最成熟之風力能源為例,進行其生命週期中之淨能源指標能源報酬EROI與二氧化碳排放分析,說明再生能源之發展應重視多面向之考量。結果顯示雖然臺灣風力發電之表現與國際水準相較之下並不遜色,但仍可透過改善其過低之發電效率以提升臺灣風能之淨能源投資報酬。
最後,本研究提出政策建議,認為應該1. 建立低耗能高效率之能源供需系統,2. 發展分散式能源技術,3. 不同階段採用不同之再生能源政策工具,4. 以淨能源作為能源政策之基礎以更接近永續能源發展之目標。

Owing to the specific geometric feature and the high population density in Taiwan, the nature resource such as fossil energy is quite of deficiency. According to the energy balance table published in 2008, the self-produced ratio of preliminary energy in Taiwan is only 0.70% and it is only 3.81% for the electricity. The dependence of energy demand on the imported energy is at an extremely unbalanced situation. Therefore, it is definitely necessary and no-regretful for the overall development on the renewable energy in Taiwan in terms of the efficiency of energy self-supply and energy safety.
However, it is important to consider if the conditions and environment in Taiwan are suitable for the development of renewable energy as the sustainable energy. Taking the main energy market, the electricity market, as an example, this study attempted to use an energy programming model, EnergyPLAN, to investigate the possibility and requirement for Taiwan to compressively develop the renewable energy. Four scenarios were simulated using 2025 as the reference year: 1. Energy saving-To reduce 10% of the overall electricity demand. 2. Efficiency enhancing: To enhance the efficiency of overall electricity system to 80%. 3. To enhance the developed rate of renewable energy reserves from 30.8% to 60%. 4. To combine the results of scenarios 1-3.
Our results shows that for the sustainable energy development in Taiwan, the best instrument is to enhance the electricity efficiency, then to reduce the energy demand, and at last to develop the renewable energy. Even all of the renewable energy is developed, its share of the installed capacity in 2025 can be only 34.43%, which enhances the energy self-supply and safety in Taiwan but still hardlymatch the demand. The occupation of energy consumption relying on the fossil energy is still as high as 67.2-78.5% though. The results also revealed that the issue of distribution system can’t be neglected in addition to the power supply of electricity system in Taiwan.
Moreover, the development of the net energy and environmental cost analysis should be concerned as economic costs for avoiding unnecessary social costs. Based on the relatively well-developed system of wind energy in Taiwan, we analyzed the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and the CO2 emission in the life cycle to reveal that the sorted considerations should be. The results exhibit that the performance of the wind power
iii
systems in Taiwan is comparative to the international ones, but the EROIs can be still enhanced via improving the low efficiency of electricity system
Several policy suggestions were recommended as followings: 1. To establish the energy supply system with low energy loss and high performance efficiency. 2. To develop the distributed energy technology. 3. To adapt applicable energy policy measures in every single process. 4. To approach the objective of the net energy as the basic concept for energy incentive/susidies instruments.

中文摘要 ............................................................................................................................... i
英文摘要 ............................................................................................................................... ii
目錄 ..................................................................................................................................... iv
圖目錄 ................................................................................................................................ vii
表目錄 ................................................................................................................................. ix
第一章 緒 論 ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 問題意識與研究動機 ............................................................................................... 1
1.1.1 全球能源市場結構轉變 ................................................................................... 1
1.1.2 我國發展再生能源之必要性 ........................................................................... 2
1.2 研究方向 ................................................................................................................... 3
1.2.1臺灣再生能源之發展與目標 ............................................................................ 3
1.2.2臺灣再生能源之發展概況 ................................................................................ 8
1.2.3 臺灣再生能源之能源政策與具體措施 ......................................................... 15
1.3 研究目的與範圍 ..................................................................................................... 22
第二章 文獻回顧 ................................................................................................................ 24
2.1 能源系統分析 ........................................................................................................ 24
2.1.1能源系統分析工具 ............................................................................................ 7
2.1.2能源規劃模型之比較與選擇 .......................................................................... 11
2.2 EnergyPLAN簡介 .................................................................................................. 36
2.3能源與環境成本分析 ............................................................................................ 37
2.3.1淨能源分析方法之回顧 .................................................................................. 38
v
2.3.2有效能分析 ...................................................................................................... 39
2.3.3能源投資報酬(EROI) ................................................................................ 40
2.4生命週期評估......................................................................................................... 45
2.4.1. 生命週期評估簡介 ........................................................................................ 45
2.4.2二氧化碳排放評估 .......................................................................................... 47
第三章 研究方法與步驟 .................................................................................................... 49
3.1 EnergyPLAN之資料庫建立 .................................................................................. 50
3.1.1總體電力市場之供給與消費 .......................................................................... 50
3.2.2再生能源資料輸入.......................................................................................... 55
3.2 EnergyPLAN之情境建立 ...................................................................................... 64
3.3台灣風力發電之進程與現況 ................................................................................ 66
3.3.1風力發電之基礎理論 .................................................................................. 66
3.3.2台灣風力發電概要 ...................................................................................... 68
3.3.3台灣風能發展之限制 .................................................................................. 72
3.3.4 台灣風力發電之經濟成本 ......................................................................... 74
第四章 結果與討論 ............................................................................................................ 83
4.1 EnergyPLAN模型之結果與討論 .......................................................................... 83
4.1.1 結果與討論 ................................................................................................. 83
4.1.2 EnergyPLAN研究之限制 ........................................................................... 88
4.2 EROI與二氧化碳排放結果與討論 ...................................................................... 89
第五章 結論與政策建議 .................................................................................................... 94
5.1 台灣永續能源發展之可能性 ................................................................................ 94
vi
5. 2 臺灣風能淨能源與環境成本分析 ....................................................................... 95
5. 3 台灣發展再生能源之政策建議 ........................................................................... 96
第六章 參考文獻 ..............................................................................................................102

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網站資料:
中央氣象局,http://www.cwb.gov.tw/
台灣電力公司,http://www.taipower.com.tw/
經濟部能源局,http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/
經濟部水利署水文水資源資料管理供應系統,
http://gweb.wra.gov.tw/wrweb/EnergyPLAN_Advanced Energy System Analysis Computer Modelhttp://energy.plan.aau.dk/
National Energy Information Center
http://www.federalgrantswire.com/national-energy-information-center.html



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