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研究生:李奇愛
研究生(外文):Chi-Ai Lee
論文名稱:我國社會安全支出與政府財政之關聯性分析-向量自我迴歸模型之運用
論文名稱(外文):The Dynamic Interdependence of the Social Security and the Government Finance in Taiwan-Application of the VAR Model
指導教授:鄭政秉鄭政秉引用關係王健合
指導教授(外文):Chen-Ping ChengChien-Ho Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:65
中文關鍵詞:社會安全支出政府財政向量自我迴歸模型因果檢定衝擊反應函數預測誤差變異數分解
外文關鍵詞:Government FinanceVAR ModelGranger&ampnbsp&ampnbsp&ampnbspCausality TestImpulse Response FunctionVariance DecompositionSocial Security Expenditure
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本文以1999年1月至2009年12月我國社會安全支出與政府財政收支為研究對象,利用時間序列的多項方法,進行動態實證分析,嘗試發現社會安全支出與政府財政及其他預算之間的互動關係。
  模型中,控制了季節因素及物價變動,實證結果發現:在VAR模型中,社會安全支出對政府財政有正向關係,但對經濟發展產生排擠效果,而其本身卻受國防政務預算的影響。Granger因果檢定中,發現社會安全支出與政府財政相互影響,並與各項預算之間也有連動關係。由衝擊反應分析得知,社會安全與政府財政彼此有明顯反應,教育文化、經濟發展及政府債務因社會安全的衝擊也有相當的反應,但國防政務預算因涉及國家安全問題,較為獨立不受任何預算支出的影響。在預測誤差變異數分解中,社會安全對政府財政結餘的解釋能力最強,表示快速擴張的社會安全制度,對政府財政已有舉足輕重的影響力。
  社會安全支出對政府財政收入有正向關係,主要原因為部份支出會透過民間消費流入政府稅收。另實證結果也顯示,我國高齡化人口與社會安全支出有顯著正向關係,對政府財政的影響會隨時間增強,意味著人口老化,長期對政府財政是一隱憂。
This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the social security and the government finance in Taiwan during 1999 to 2009 with vector autoregressive (VAR) model.
We control for the seasonal factor and the price index in empirical VAR model. The VAR model shows that the social security expenditure is the positive relationship with the government finance, but the crowding-out effect to the economic development budget. Moreover, the social security is also affected by the national defense budget. According to the Granger causality test, we find that the interaction effect and the causality relationship between the social security expenditure and the government finance. The social security disbursement also has the“lead-lag”relationship with other budgets. By the impact-response analysis, the responses of the government finance as well as other budgets to the social security spending innovation are obviously except the national defense government affairs budget, because of the national security question. The variance decomposition analysis of the government finance is explained mostly by itself and the social security, expressed that increasing rapidly social security benefits has impacted to the government finance.
The positive relationship between the social security and the government finance is caused by part of the social security expenditure inflow to government tax revenue. Another empirical result shows that the population aging has remarkable influence to the social security expenditure and such influence will strengthen with the time span. So, in the long run, we had to worry about the population aging problem generating financing imbalance.
第一章 緒論
   1.1 研究動機與背景..........................................1
1.2 研究目的..............................................3
1.3 研究流程..............................................4
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1 社會安全的定義........................................6
2.2 經濟學家的社會福利理..................................7
2.3 社會安全的責任問題....................................8
2.4 我國的社會安全制度及收支..............................8
2.5 文獻回顧.............................................10
第三章 研究方法
3.1單根檢定.............................................14
3.2向量自我回歸模型.................................16
3.3 Granger因果關係檢定.................................17
3.4衝擊反應函數.........................................18
3.5預測誤差變異分解.....................................19
第四章 社會安全支出與政府財政之關聯性分析
4.1 資料來源與變數設定...................................21
4.2 基本統計分析.........................................21
4.3 單根檢定結果.........................................22
4.4 向量自我迴歸模型.....................................23
4.5 Granger因果關係檢定................................29
4.6 衝擊反應分析.........................................32
4.7 預測誤差變異數分解結果...............................35
第五章 社會安全支出對政府財政稅課收入之影響分析
5.1 資料來源與變數設定.................................. 37
5.2 基本統計分析........................................ 37
5.3 單根檢定結果.........................................38
5.4 向量自我迴歸模型.....................................38
5.5 社會安全支出與稅課收入變動關係分析...................41
5.6 小結.................................................43
第六章 我國人口老化對社會安全支出衝擊分析
6.1 資料來源與變數設定...................................44
6.2 基本統計分析.........................................44
6.3 單根檢定結果.........................................45
6.4 向量自我迴歸模型.....................................46
6.5 65歲以上人口成長率與社會安全支出之變動關係分析.......48
6.6 小結.................................................50
第七章 結論與建議
7.1 結論.................................................51
7.2 研究限制與建議.......................................53
參考文獻........................................................54
一、中文部份
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