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研究生:簡菀伶
研究生(外文):Chien, Wan-Ling
論文名稱:探究具隨機性工期之關鍵鏈緩衝時間計算
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Critical Chain Buffer Sizing
指導教授:林高正林高正引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lin, Kao-Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:南台科技大學
系所名稱:工業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:57
中文關鍵詞:關鍵鏈排程匯入路徑緩衝時間資源緊迫度網路複雜度參數分析
外文關鍵詞:Critical Chain/Buffer ManagementFeeding pathsBuffersResourcetightnessNetwork complexityParametric analysis
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
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  • 下載下載:92
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在關鍵鏈排程中,為確保能達成對客戶之交期承諾,會在專案尾端加入專案緩衝;而為避免非關鍵鏈作業之延誤影響到關鍵鏈作業的既定排程,會在匯入關鍵鏈之路徑的尾端加入路徑緩衝。這兩者都是虛擬作業,其作用是在進行排程時間的推移。文獻中最常見的緩衝時間計算方法為剪貼法與根方誤差法。Herroelen and Leus (2001) 的模擬實驗證實剪貼法可能嚴重高估所需的緩衝保護。從這實驗的結果也可發現,專案總工期顯著地受到資源緊迫度與先行關係密度影響。因此,Tukel et al. (2006) 將這兩個重要因素列入考慮,而提出以根方誤差法為基礎之新的緩衝時間計算方法。然而,Tukel et al. (2006) 的調整係數會有顯著且不必要的膨脹。由統計學信賴區間相關理論可知,當專案網路為鏈型時,根方誤差法通常已足夠整合作業工期的不確定性。故本研究將其調整係數分別修改成在資源非常充足時,以及在專案網路為鏈型時,調整係數的值為 1,以避免不必要的膨脹。從範例計算結果,本研究發現原有的先行關係密度調整係數會使得排程結果非常接近最早排程。這可能導致在製品存貨明顯增加,也可能因而再落入傳統排程的惡性循環。另外,一條在傳統 PERT 計算中並非作業要徑但具有相當高不確定性的路徑,在實務上有可能成為決定專案完工時間的作業路徑。因此,在要徑的計算中考慮路徑工期之不確定性是必須的。從範例計算結果,本研究發現將路徑工期的不確定性納入作業要徑的求解考量,比較不會出現無法充份加入緩衝時間的現象。特別值得注意的是,若總工期最長的路徑並非作業要徑,則作業要徑上會出現某些作業具有安全浮時,這些浮時會降低其先行作業之工期不確定性的影響。
In the theory of Critical Chain/Buffer Management (CC/BM), the safety associated with the critical chain tasks is shifted to the end of the critical chain in the form of a project buffer, the aim of which is to protect the project due-date promised to the customer from variation in the critical chain tasks. Feeding buffers are placed whenever a non-critical chain activity joins the critical chain. Both kinds of buffers are pseudo-activities added to protect the critical chain from disruptions on the activities feeding it, and to allow critical chain activities to start early in case things go well. In the literature, the most widely used buffer sizing methods are the Cut and Paste Method and the Root Square Error Method (RSEM). Herroelen and Leus (2001) performed a full factorial experiment on a set of benchmark problems to test the CC/BM scheduling mechanism, and then reported that the Cut and Paste Method may lead to a serious overestimation of the required buffer protection. From the results of this experiment, it can be also found that the project makespan highly depends on the average resource utilization and the order strength. Therefore, Tukel et al. (2006) took these two factors into consideration, and then proposed two adjustment factors for the RSEM. However, their adjustment factors may lead to a significant and unnecessary expansion. From the statistical theory of confidence intervals, when the project network is a chain, the buffer sizes determined by using RSEM are usually large enough to integrate the uncertainty in activity durations. Therefore, in this study, we give some revision to their adjustment factors. To avoid unnecessary expansion, our adjustment factors take the value 1 in cases that the resource is very sufficient, and the network is a chain. From the result of numerical examples, we find that the Adaptive Procedure with Density method proposed by Tukel et al. (2006) usually produces a schedule very close to the earliest schedule. This will increase the WIP and fall into the vicious cycle of traditional scheduling approaches. In addition, since a path that is not critical in the traditional scheduling approach, but has a highly uncertain total duration, may be the path that determines the makespan in practice. Therefore, taking the uncertainty in activity durations into consideration is important, when determining which path is critical. From the numerical example, we find that this may also reduce the possibility that the length of buffer added can not be as long as we wish. We also note that when the critical path found using this method is not a path with the longest total average duration, there exist some activities in the critical path which have nonzero safety floats. These float times will reduce the impact of the uncertainty of their precedent activities’ durations.
摘 要 ............................................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... ii
誌 謝 ............................................................................................................................. iv
表目錄 ............................................................................................................................ vii
圖目錄 ........................................................................................................................... viii
第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 研究動機 ....................................................................................................... 1
1.2 研究目的 ....................................................................................................... 2
1.3 研究流程 ....................................................................................................... 3
1.4 章節簡介 ....................................................................................................... 4
第二章 文獻探討 ........................................................................................................ 6
2.1 專案時程分析 ............................................................................................... 6
2.2 資源調配 ....................................................................................................... 9
2.3 關鍵鏈排程 ................................................................................................. 11
2.3.1 以限制理論檢視專案排程 ............................................................ 12
2.3.2 關鍵鏈排程的理念 ........................................................................ 13
2.3.3 現有緩衝時間計算方法 ................................................................ 16
2.3.4 緩衝管理機制 ................................................................................ 18
第三章 新的緩衝時間修正方法 .............................................................................. 20
3.1 資源緊迫度與先行關係密度 ..................................................................... 20
3.2 新的緩衝時間調整係數 ............................................................................. 22
3.3 數值範例 ..................................................................................................... 25
3.4 本章小結 ..................................................................................................... 36
第四章 考慮路徑工期不確定性之關鍵鏈排程 ...................................................... 38
4.1 考慮路徑工期不確定性之作業要徑 ......................................................... 39
4.2 以最短單體法求解作業要徑參數分析 ..................................................... 41
4.3 考慮路徑工期不確定性之作業要徑數值範例 ......................................... 42
4.4 考慮路徑工期不確定性之關鍵鏈排程數值範例 ..................................... 43
4.5 本章小結 ..................................................................................................... 52
第五章 結論與後續研究 .......................................................................................... 53
5.1 結論 ............................................................................................................. 53
5.2 後續研究 ..................................................................................................... 54
參考文獻 ........................................................................................................................ 56
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