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研究生:黃佳玲
研究生(外文):Jia-Ling Huang
論文名稱:Flexible Display Industrial Trends on E-paper: A Technological Foresight Perspective
論文名稱(外文):Flexible Display Industrial Trends on E-paper: A Technological Foresight Perspective
指導教授:謝志宏謝志宏引用關係
口試委員:王俊賢吳崇光
口試日期:2010-7-5
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:經營管理碩士班(企業管理與服務科學學程)
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:98
語文別:英文
論文頁數:83
中文關鍵詞:Flexible displaye-paperDelphiSTEEPfuzzy AHP
外文關鍵詞:fuzzy AHPFlexible displaye-paperDelphiSTEEP
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  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:138
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The future development of flexible display technology is believed to reform the flat panel display and offer new applications for displays which do not available nowadays. Flexible display as one of the most developing electronic products for the future display industry with the advantages of lightweight, flexible, rollable and bendable technologies are now an important issue to study. As flat panel display technology bring an enormous advantage to Taiwan’s economy, will flexible display technology brings Taiwan, the major manufacturing base and one of the leading manufacturers for Amazon’s Kindle, the same economy value is an expectation to display industries. This paper, therefore, investigates the future development, industrial structure, technological transformation, and market for the flexible display industry in Taiwan. The major contribution of this research is applying Delphi method to forecast the development trends of flexible display industry in Taiwan for the next 10 years (2010~2020). The impact of the technology is conducted by social, technological, environmental, economic and political (STEEP model) analysis. Furthermore, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fAHP) model is applying in pair-wise comparison to study the strategic applications for e-paper for policy makers. Megatrends for hardware and software to the future development of e-paper products as well as key successful factors of e-paper are investigated in the chapter 5 of this study. It is expected that the results of the study could be beneficial to government, high-tech firms, and social public as well as to understand the relationship between service providers, end users and product portfolios. Finally, the study is end up with conclusions and suggestions for future studies.
The future development of flexible display technology is believed to reform the flat panel display and offer new applications for displays which do not available nowadays. Flexible display as one of the most developing electronic products for the future display industry with the advantages of lightweight, flexible, rollable and bendable technologies are now an important issue to study. As flat panel display technology bring an enormous advantage to Taiwan’s economy, will flexible display technology brings Taiwan, the major manufacturing base and one of the leading manufacturers for Amazon’s Kindle, the same economy value is an expectation to display industries. This paper, therefore, investigates the future development, industrial structure, technological transformation, and market for the flexible display industry in Taiwan. The major contribution of this research is applying Delphi method to forecast the development trends of flexible display industry in Taiwan for the next 10 years (2010~2020). The impact of the technology is conducted by social, technological, environmental, economic and political (STEEP model) analysis. Furthermore, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fAHP) model is applying in pair-wise comparison to study the strategic applications for e-paper for policy makers. Megatrends for hardware and software to the future development of e-paper products as well as key successful factors of e-paper are investigated in the chapter 5 of this study. It is expected that the results of the study could be beneficial to government, high-tech firms, and social public as well as to understand the relationship between service providers, end users and product portfolios. Finally, the study is end up with conclusions and suggestions for future studies.
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1Research background and motivation 1
1.2Research objective 2
1.3Introduction to electronic paper (e-paper) display 3
1.4 Research scope 5
1.5 Research Framework -6

Chapter 2: Literature Review 7
2.1 Development of e-paper industry 7
2.2 Introduction to role-players (firms) in e-paper technology 8
2.3 Develpment of e-paper industry in Taiwan 11
2.4 introduction to E-paper application products 12
2.5 Delphi Forecasting Method 13
2.6 STEEP Analysis 14
2.6.1 Five fundamental elements of STEEP Analysis 15
2.7 AHP and Fuzzy AHP model 16

Chapter 3: Methodology 18
3.1 Research methods 18
3.2 Research process 18
3.3 Selection of experts and questionnaire survey 20
3.4 Questionnaire design 22
3.5 Return rate 22
3.6 Statistical analysis 24

Chapter 4: Empirical Studies 25
4.1 Empirical results 25
4.1.1 Delphi survey and STEEP analysis 25
4.1.2 Fuzzy AHP survey and analysis 29
4.1.2.1 Criteria for fAHP 29
4.1.2.2 Questionnaire results and strategic applications for e-paper 30
4.1.2.3 Weighting for criteria 32
4.2 Analysis of megatrends for hardware and software industries to e-paper application 33
4.2.1 Megatrends for hardware and software industries 33
4.2.1.1 Authors 34
4.2.1.2 Publishers 37
4.2.1.3 Telecommunication service providers (including wireless) 39
4.2.1.4 Bookstores 41
4.2.1.5 Manufacturers 42
4.2.1.5 Users 43
4.3 Research findings 44
4.4 The pros and cons of e-paper applications for major stakeholders 49
4.5 Key successful factors analysis 51
4.6 Summary 52

Chapter 5: Conclusion and suggestions 53
5.1 Conclusion 53
5.2 Suggestions 54
References 55

Appendix 1 58
Appendix 2 68
Appendix 3 76
Appendix 4 83

List of Tables
Table 2.1: Frontplane and Backplane technologies and their role players 8
Table 2.2: Evolution of flexible display technologies 12
Table 2.3: E-reader’s Supply Chain in Taiwan 12
Table 3.1: An explanation of 1 to 9 scale in pair-wise comparisons 21
Table 3.2: An example of fundamental scale pair-wise comparison 22
Table 3.3: Delphi experts’ list 23
Table 3.4: fuzzy AHP experts’ list 23
Table 4.1: Pros and Cons of STEEP Criteria 28
Table 4.2: Criteria and stratetic appliations for fAHP analysis 31
Table 4.3: Weight for fAHP level one criteria 32
Table 4.4: Weight for strategic application 32
Table 4.5: The relationships between hardware and software industries to STEEP criteria 33
Table 4.6: A comparision of traditional publication and digital publication 38
Table 4.7: Pros and Cons of physical and online bookstore 42
Table 4.8: Interviewees' list 44
Table 4.9: The pros &; cons of e-paper for major stakeholders 50

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: E-paper display market forecast 2009~2018 5
Figure 1.2: Market forecast of the applications of e-paper displays 5
Figure 1.3 Research Framework 6
Figure 3.1: Research Process 19
Figure 3.2: Analytic Hierarchy Process Method 21
Figure 3.3: Importance of range of intervals 22
Figure 4.1: Availability of flexible display in 2020 29
Figure 4.2: Online transaction processes for authors and users 35
Figure: 4.3 Cost structure for e-publication (e-readers) 36
Figure 4.4: Places where 3G/3.5G mobile internet users assessing the internet (%) 40
Figure 4.5 : Reading behavior in Taiwan 43
Figure 4.6: Flow chart for e-publication (e-paper related products 45
Figure 4.7: Cloud server database for e-reader 46
Figure 4.8 : Vending Machine for future traditional bookstore 47
Figure 4.9: E-reader business model 47
Figure 4.10: Key Success Factors of e-paper 51
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