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研究生:蔡宜紜
研究生(外文):Yi-yun Tsai
論文名稱:國際航線機票動態定價之研究
論文名稱(外文):Dynamic Pricing Analysis for International Air Routes
指導教授:溫傑華溫傑華引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chieh-Hua Wen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:運輸科技與管理學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:英文
論文頁數:64
中文關鍵詞:追蹤資料迴歸模式低成本航線兩岸航線動態票價
外文關鍵詞:Dynamic PricingPanel Data Regression ModelsCross-Strait RoutesLow-Cost Routes
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  • 被引用被引用:4
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航空票價是旅客行程規劃所考量的重要關鍵因素。航空公司票價依飛機艙等、訂位時間、及不同售票通路等而有差異。由於機票不具儲存性及未出售幾乎沒有殘值,因此採用動態票價的商業策略,以獲取較高的營收與利潤。雖然釵h文獻已找出影響航空票價的重要因素,並評估低成本航空引進後對傳統航空票價的影響,但有關台灣國際線航空票價的研究極少。由於各國航空產業營運環境不同,台灣國際航線票價仍有研究的必要,尤其台灣至大陸新的航線及低成本航線。
本研究收集我國國籍航空及大陸籍航空於旅行社及航空公司之線上票價,並建立一般傳統迴歸模式探討影響兩岸航線航空票價及重要的解釋變數。依據迴歸模式的分析結果顯示,於所有的售票通路中,大陸籍的航空公司所販售的票價較我國籍航空公司便宜。艙等、特殊假日、最長停留天數、飛行距離對於票價的訂定皆正向顯著影響,而限制航班對於票價訂定為負向顯著影響。
另一方面,本研究透過長期蒐集低成本航空公司線上之票價,採用追蹤資料迴歸模式探討低成本航線各時段之票價變化及其訂價策略。依據低成本航線的結果可知,於星期六或星期日票價較平常日貴,且越接近出發日期,其票價越高。根據研究結果希望可供航空公司改善並研擬適合自己的訂價策略,以提升自身之競爭力。
Air ticket price is an important factor of passenger itinerary planning. Air pricing is different according to factors such as cabin class, booking time, and even different sales channels. Because an air ticket has no residual value if not sold, air carriers can gain higher revenue and profit by using a dynamic pricing strategy. Despite a significant number of previous studies that have determined the important attributes affecting air ticket price and evaluated the impact of low-cost carriers on the airfares of traditional airlines, little has been examined regarding air ticket pricing for Taiwan’s international routes. As every country’s aviation environment is different, it is necessary to investigate the air pricing of Taiwan routes in terms of cross-strait flights and international flights operated by low-cost airlines.
This study attempts to analyze the air ticket prices for air travel within cross-strait routes using data collected from a sample of airline and online travel agent websites. The ordinary least squares (OLS) model is initially used to analyze airfares and identify important explanatory variables. The results show that comparing the average prices on multiple online sites, Airfares of Mainland Chinese airlines are the least expensive. Tickets of business class, with long flight distances, on holidays, or of maximum-stay duration attributes positively influence fare levels. Tickets with more flight restrictions are negative influence fare levels.
In the low-cost routes, prices from a sample of airline websites were collected daily during the sixty days before the departure date. The panel data regression models are initially used to analyze airfare variations of low-cost routes. The results indicate air ticket prices on Saturday and Sunday are higher as compared to other days of week, and there is a trend of increasing air fares as the departure date gets closer. The results could help airlines to improve their own pricing strategy and build a differential edge in those markets.
誌謝 I
摘要 II
ABSTRACT III
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION 1
1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 6
1.3 RESEARCH METHODS 7
1.4 FLOW CHART 8
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 10
2.1 AIRLINE FARE TYPE 10
2.2 AIR PRICE ATTRIBUTES 12
2.3 PANEL DATA MODELS 18
2.4 SUMMARY 19
CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODS 23
3.1 CROSS-STRAIT ROUTES 23
3.1.1 Ordinary Least Squares Model 23
3.2 LOW-COST ROUTES 24
3.2.1 Ordinary Least Squares Model 25
3.2.2 Fixed Effect Model 26
3.2.3 Random Effect Model 27
CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS IN CROSS-STRAIT ROUTES 30
4.1 DATA COLLECTION 30
4.2 DATA ANALYSIS 34
4.3 ESTIMATION RESULTS OF OLS MODEL 38
4.4 DISCUSSION 40
CHAPTER 5 EMPIRICAL RESULTS IN LOW-COST ROUTES 43
5.1 DATA COLLECTION 43
5.2 DATA ANALYSIS 45
5.3 ESTIMATION RESULTS OF OLS MODEL 48
5.4 ESTIMATION RESULTS OF FIXED EFFECT MODEL 50
5.5 ESTIMATION RESULTS OF RANDOM EFFECT MODEL 52
5.6 TEST RESULTS 53
5.7 DISCUSSION 54
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS 57
6.1 RESULTS 57
6.2 CONTRIBUTIONS 59
6.3 LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 60
REFERENCES 62
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